Health officials fear more deaths as key COVID-19 numbers rise in Missouri, Kansas
The positive test rates for COVID-19, daily new case averages and number of hospitalizations for the coronavirus continued along a dramatic upward trend from mid-June to mid-July in both Kansas and Missouri.
The Star analyzed key metrics pointed to by public health experts for a month of coronavirus data in Kansas and Missouri spanning from June 12 through July 10. The dates were chosen because more recent data from state health departments is incomplete.
The data showed clear increases in spread of the virus as public health officials expressed concerns about the trends, urging residents to continue to adhere to social distancing guidelines. Sanmi Areola, director of the Johnson County health department, warned that if the trends do not shift the county could be forced to impose stricter restrictions and ask businesses to reduce capacity or close.
“If we continue on that flat trajectory of 100 cases a day, I don’t think that we can sustain that over a long period of time,” Areola said. “All options have to be on the table.”
In a letter Friday, Areola and health directors for Kansas City and Jackson, Johnson and Wyandotte counties said the KC area is experiencing a “dramatic increase” in COVID-19 and that it is becoming difficult to keep up with the number of cases.
The leaders asked residents to wear masks and avoid crowds to help stem the spread of the virus.
“We are extremely concerned that hospitalizations will continue to escalate in the coming weeks and months, and that the uncontrolled spread of COVID-19 will lead to increasing ventilator use and deaths,” the letter said.
For more recent dates, data kept by The Star tracking COVID-19 cases and deaths in the Kansas City metropolitan area shows trends of increasing case loads and hospitalizations continuing to rise. The KC area broke its record for new cases three times in the past week. The most recent record was reached Thursday with 605 new cases reported.
On Friday, the area encompassing Kansas City and Jackson, Clay and Platte counties in Missouri and Johnson and Wyandotte counties in Kansas added 495 new cases, pushing the metro area’s total COVID-19 infections over 16,000. A total of 298 deaths have been reported in the KC area.
In interviews, Jennifer Tolbert, director of state health reform at the Kaiser Family Foundation, Kansas Department of Health and Environment Secretary Lee Norman, Kansas Health Institute Senior Analyst Charles Hunt, and Enid Schatz, the chair of the University of Missouri’s public health department, pointed to the positive test rate as a key metric for decision making and understanding the spread of the virus, along with the rate of new cases and hospitalizations.
Positive rate
On June 12, the rolling seven-day average positive rate for COVID-19 tests was 3.98% in Kansas. In the month that followed, the average positive rate steadily rose, hitting 9.41% by July 10.
In an email Thursday, Kansas Department of Health and Environment spokeswoman Kristi Zears said testing had stayed relatively constant in the state over the previous four weeks but more positive cases were being detected.
Missouri saw a similar, though less dramatic, trend. On June 12, Missouri had a seven day average positive case rate of 3.87%. That rate was 7.65% by July 10.
Tolbert, of the Kaiser Family Foundation, previously told The Star that health departments should aim for a 3% positive rate for COVID-19 tests.
New cases
Following trends seen in the Kansas City metro area, statewide numbers of new cases rose throughout the four-week period.
On June 12, Kansas was reporting a rolling seven-day average of 129 new cases per day. By July 10, that figure had more than doubled as the state reported an average of 401 new cases each day.
Areola, of the Johnson County Department of Health and Environment, said the increasing case loads correlated with the reopening of the county, trips to the Lake of the Ozarks for Memorial Day, and an increase in house parties.
He said the county is hoping that a mask mandate will pull the average number of new cases down and encouraged residents to act responsibly, wear masks and avoid crowds. He said the increase of cases was less steep after the mask mandate went in place but the county is still seeing more than 100 new cases each day.
“There’s no question that we have to break the transmission cycle. We cannot afford for that to continue,” Areola said. “This is not a time to go to crowded bars, this is not a time to go to house parties and go to crowded events.”
Missouri saw similar trends. Its number of new cases started higher than Kansas, in part due to the state’s higher population.
As of June 12, Missouri reported a rolling seven-day average of 276 new cases per day. That figure steadily rose for the next four weeks, reaching 784 by July 10.
Randall Williams, director of the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, said that in Missouri the new cases are being seen more among people in their 20s and 30s. Though this population is less likely to see serious consequences from the virus, Williams said, they can spread it more easily and can still become seriously ill.
As more people get the virus, Williams said, more people will die from it. The virus is unique, he said, in the variation of symptoms from person to person.
If community transmission continues as universities reopen in the fall, Williams said, “we’ll see more cases.”
Hospitalizations
Kansas and Missouri each report different figures to track hospitalizations for COVID-19.
Kansas tracks the number of new daily admissions. On June 12, the state averaged six new hospitalizations each day. The number rose to 11.29 by June 22 before dropping back to eight by July 1. The Star was unable to obtain data for July 2-4. However, by the end of the 30-day period, the rolling seven-day average of new hospitalizations in the state was 18.
Missouri tracks the total number of patients hospitalized each day for the new coronavirus.
On June 12, the state had a seven-day average of 595 people hospitalized by the virus. By July 10, the average had risen steadily to 836 people hospitalized each day.
In a daily briefing Friday, the University of Kansas Health System said it currently had 32 COVID-19 patients, five of those in the ICU and four on ventilators.
