Mellinger Minutes: So much Chiefs, a little Royals, and some Stick To Sports

One man’s current NFL top 10 looks like this:

1. Cowboys

2. Patriots

3. Seahawks

4. Chiefs

5. Broncos

6. Raiders

7. Cardinals

8. Steelers

9. Giants

10. Falcons

This is probably higher than most would have the Chiefs, and we all understand they’re a few plays away from being 5-4 or so, but in the world that exists they are 7-2 with a terrific defense, a superstar about to return, and road wins over the Raiders and Panthers.

But what seems to be on a lot of Kansas City minds this week is where the Chiefs season might end up. I wrote a lot about this for Sunday’s paper, and here’s another way to do it — the AFC’s top four teams, their remaining schedules, and, using some Vegas NFL power rankings, a projection on how it might turn out.

Patriots (7-2)

at 49ers: W

at Jets: W

vs Rams: W

vs Ravens: W

at Broncos: W

vs Jets: W

at Dolphins: W

Chiefs (7-2)

vs Bucs: W

at Broncos L

at Falcons L

vs Raiders W

vs Titans W

vs Broncos L

at Chargers L

Broncos (7-3)

vs Chiefs: W

at Jags: W

at Titans: W

vs Patriots: L

at Chiefs: W

vs Raiders: W

Raiders (7-2)

vs Texans: W

vs Panthers: W

vs Bills: L

at Chiefs: L

at Chargers: L

vs Colts: W

at Broncos: L

If that’s how it goes, the Patriots finish 14-2, the Chiefs 10-6, the Broncos 12-4, and the Raiders 10-6.

For what it’s worth, I happen to disagree with several of the results. You probably care the most about the Chiefs’ results, so my best guess at the moment is a 12-4 finish — lose at Atlanta, split with the Broncos. But anything from 13-3 to 10-6 is on the table.

But I do think the Vegas numbers are worth considering, in part because they likely reflect skin-of-the-teeth wins over the Chargers and Panthers, as well as what could’ve been a loss to the sorry Jags at home.

The Chiefs have flaws, in other words, which we’ll get to. Alex Smith, perhaps most obviously, needs to be a lot better. We’ll get to that, too. But the Chiefs also have a bunch of strengths, and their best player is about to return.

We’ll get to that, too.

This week’s reading recommendation is Keith Romer on a casino robbery, and the eating recommendation is the nachos at Rudy’s.

We’ll try to do another Facebook Live chat Thursday morning at 11. Please join, the last few have been a lot of fun. As always, please give me a follow on Facebook and Twitter, thanks for reading, and thanks for your help.

Because I’m a serious journalist, I spent my time in the Chiefs’ postgame locker room* asking guys if they knew that punting the ball into the stands was only a 5-yard penalty.

* Most jubilant locker room I can remember in the last few years, by the way, with the exception of Houston in the playoffs last season and the possible exception of benching Peyton Manning last season.

My favorite two answers came from Spencer Ware and Ron Parker. First, Ware:

“I don’t know why it’s a penalty, anyway,” Ware said. “It’s the NFL. We grew up watching people celebrate. That’s what made us want to come here, have fun, put on for our fam, our fans, and our teammates.”

Preach. The NFL should absolutely allow the humans who make the sport so popular to be, you know, humans. But the NFL legislates the height of socks, never mind celebrations, so the official coming on and saying it was a five-yard delay of game penalty instead of a 15-yard unsportsmanlike with a mandatory 10-game suspension from Sheriff Goodell was quite shocking.

And here’s Parker’s answer:

“I guess I’m not surprised the way the league has all these rule changes,” he said. “You can’t keep up with them.”

It’s two somewhat subtle and very much deserved shots at the NFL, for its overreach on football players having fun, and its insistence on constantly changing the strangest rules.

Now, all that said, I will be very surprised if the league doesn’t close what I want to be known as the Peters Loophole, and turn a celebratory kick, spike, or throw into a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty.

Matter of fact, let’s just operate under the assumption that this is exactly what the league will be doing.

It’s easier than addressing domestic violence, or coming up with a concussion protocol that isn’t a complete farce, anyway.

This is the football version of a bat flip, so in my book, you should punt something every chance you get. Every time you do something that makes you smile, or proud, you should punt. When I post this completely ridiculous time suck, I promise you I will find the toddler’s Nerf football and punt the bejeezus out of it.

I’m typing this from the airport, and when I get home, I’m guessing the toddler is going to want me to build him a train track. I’ll do it, and then I’m punting. I’m going to feed the baby tonight, and when he has his last bite of apple sauce, punt. I’m going to load the dishwasher tonight, and when I do it, punt (and then bourbon).

I understand the point, but two counterpoints:

1. The Chiefs have, essentially, been exposed in the playoffs every year since January 1970.

2. Nearly every team, regardless of their postseason outcome, steals a game or two during the regular season.

Toward that last point, you may remember that the current Super Bowl champions committed an act of armed robbery at Arrowhead Stadium in week two last year. They also won three games in overtime, including one against the Browns, and got by the Patriots by a whisker’s margin at home in the AFC Championship Game.

So, look, I understand the hesitation to go all-in on this team. They could’ve, or even should’ve, lost the Chargers game, and the Panthers game. If a long list of things headlined by Chris Ivory’s non-TD at the goal line go the other way, they could’ve lost to the Jags, at home, and that would’ve been embarrassing. They were non-competitive against the Steelers, and now we’ve mentioned four of their nine games.

But — and I know I make this point a lot, but it’s absolutely true, and so often forgotten about — all teams have holes. All teams win ugly, at least the teams that win.

You don’t think some Broncos fans might be a little worried they needed a blocked PAT to beat the Saints? Or that their wonderboy quarterback is now playing like a seventh-round draft pick who had a nearly even touchdown-interception ratio in college?

I don’t know how this Chiefs season will end up. You don’t know, either. Andy Reid doesn’t know. I thought it looked like a 9-7 or 10-6 team before the season, the losses coming because they’d play more than half the season without their best player, which would mean no pass rush, which would mean a lack of experience at cornerback behind Marcus Peters would be exposed.

I should’ve known Dee Ford would be leading the league in sacks.

The Chiefs are 7-2. If you want to nitpick, you can say they should be 6-3, or even 5-4. But if you do that, you better nitpick the other teams in the AFC playoff picture. We mentioned Denver already. The Patriots got blanked by the Bills. The Chiefs beat the Raiders by 16 points in Oakland. The Steelers have problems. We could go on.

The point is the Chiefs have done more than what should’ve been expected of them, so far. With the right breaks, they actually have a chance at the No. 1 seed. For now, they hold the No. 2 seed, and are squarely focused on a bye and at least one home playoff game.

It’s a pretty good place to be. We can all worry, or overanalyze, everything that could’ve gone wrong so far. But it’s gone right. So we can focus on that, too, or...

... yeah, again, I get it. Alex Smith played terribly at Carolina, and whenever that happens, the doubt on him tends to grow louder. I happen to think he’s a good, not great, quarterback who is in position to succeed but I do think they’re going to need more from him, and I know that makes many of you nervous.

The offense should be better. Jeremy Maclin is pacing for his least productive season as a pro, “running back depth” should now be talked about in the past tense, and Chiefs fans are always one Smith interception or Reid clock mismanagement away from meltdown.

But, and this probably isn’t how you mean the question, but I’m going to answer it this way anyway: most sports teams will break your heart.

At least, that’s true of the teams good enough for you to invest a bit of your heart in the first place.

The Chiefs have a sorrier history than most, but every year, the vast majority of fans end up disappointed in their teams. We can sit here in Kansas City and say it’d be cool to see the Chiefs make the Super Bowl someday, but even with a championship three years ago, you don’t think Seahawks fans were devastated two years ago? Or the Panthers last year, and so far again this season?

That’s how it goes, it’s the deal we all make. I know I say this a lot, but I won’t ever tell anyone how to be a sports fan. For some of us, it’s just our nature to fear the monster around the corner. Sometimes that’s a defense mechanism, a way to remember how these stories usually end.

So, if that’s what feels natural, or safest, salut. But, if you’re honest, I bet you’d take this kind of first nine games every time. Might as well enjoy it, and if it helps, remember that the Patriots have given up 56 points in their last two games, the Raiders are 31st in both opponent yards per pass and opponent yards per rush, and the Broncos have problems at quarterback and a defensive style that actually suits the Chiefs better than most.

Well, the Patriots are absolutely the odds-on favorite in the AFC. Bovada has them +110 to win the AFC, which basically means it’s 50-50 between them and the field. The Chiefs (+750), Steelers (+800), Broncos (+800) and Raiders (+1000) aren’t too far behind, but the Patriots should be the favorites.

The Patriots are strong on both offense and defense, have earned their name brand, and have the game’s best quarterback, coach and tight end. They also have a relatively easy schedule — only two games against teams currently in the playoff picture — which means they’re the likeliest team to have the No. 1 seed, and winning a playoff game in Foxborough isn’t impossible, but it’s also not something you want to have to do.

But after that, yeah, of course the Chiefs have a chance. We mentioned above that they are the current No. 2 seed, and the playoff seeding will change week-to-week, but the Chiefs’ resume is pretty impressive.

▪  they have not lost since Oct. 2, and have not lost at home since before the Royals won the 2015 World Series. They have won 18 of their last 21 games overall.

▪  they have beaten Phil Rivers, Andrew Luck, Derek Carr, Drew Brees and Cam Newton.

▪  they have shown the ability, twice now, to win what should’ve been unwinnable games.

▪  their defense is the best in the league in preventing points in the second half, is strong at all three levels, and is about to get its best player back.

That’s not bad. And it’s also not this question...

...the Chiefs’ schedule over the last half of the season is more difficult than over the first half. They should beat the Bucs at home this week* — you have to see Jameis Winston’s play the other day if you haven’t already — and then comes a brutal stretch.

* Though I don’t think any NFL game that doesn’t involve the Browns, 49ers, Bears, and maybe the Jags is more than a 70-30 shot.

They play at Denver (will probably be an underdog), at Atlanta (probably an underdog), the Raiders at home (I still don’t think the Raiders are really good, but I’m probably wrong about that), the Titans at home, the Broncos at home, and at San Diego.

You don’t have to search very hard to find three losses in there. If the Chiefs make it out of there at 12-4, they’re probably the No. 2 seed. I’m assuming the Patriots will be at least 12-4 and perhaps 13-3. The first tiebreaker is division record, and the Patriots do have a division loss, but I’m not betting on the Chiefs running the table in football’s best division.

If the Chiefs are 11-5, they still might get the No. 2 seed, depending on where those three losses come. The winner of the AFC West will probably be the No. 2 seed, but keep in mind that at the moment the Chiefs are only a game ahead of the 6-3 Texans, who would have the tiebreaker.

But, to answer your question: I think they’ll be the No. 2 seed.

It’s an interesting question. I lean no, not just because of the offense, but because of all the other players who made 2014 and 2015 happen who will have cases. A semi-comprehensive list:

Alex Gordon

Eric Hosmer

Salvador Perez

Wade Davis

Mike Moustakas

Ned Yost

Dayton Moore

Lorenzo Cain

James Shields

Greg Holland

Kelvin Herrera

Billy Butler*

* Some of you will laugh at that, but he’s in the all-time top 10 in hitting, homers, doubles, RBI, and walks. His case is, basically, Sweeney Lite.

The first eight are all probably in, and there is a good case for the last four, and we haven’t yet mentioned Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura, who are still building their careers.

Escobar won the Gold Glove, and made the All-Star team, and hit .478 and was the MVP of the 2015 ALCS. He’s had some great moments, too, like the leadoff inside-the-park homer in the World Series, but in a crowded field it’s tough to make room for a guy who’s a career .262/.297/.345 hitter and never been more than a three-win player.

Five core players from the 1985 team are in the Hall of Fame, if that gives you a guide.

Well, in the spirit of the above question, let me answer like Peters would: Hell No.

I guess I should start by noting the premise of your question is off a bit. I’m able to express my true opinion publicly, every day of my life. Obviously, I do that with dumb stuff like sports, but I don’t think a boss or anyone else at work has ever discouraged any of us from doing it with politics or other issues.

I follow politics and news far more than it probably appears, based on columns or tweets or Facebook or this strange weekly exercise. But I like to keep that stuff separate, for a few reasons, ranging from practical to philosophical. I guess I’m making an exception here, because you asked a question, so here is the best explanation I can provide:

Politics tend to frustrate the heck out of me. They remind me about how little we listen to each other, how easy it is in 2016 to create our own echo chambers, and how out of touch a lot of us tend to be with people who don’t think like we do.

So, when I listen to a politics podcast or read a certain news story, the ultimate result is usually that I want to escape it. I do that with my wife and kids, in the best times, but also with my friends and I making fun of each other, and talking about sports, or just watching sports.

If I’m completely honest, there are times I see my work as an escape, too. And I don’t want to spend that time arguing politics with someone.

Look, I am fully aware that my job is somewhat silly. I am a grown man who supports a family by watching and writing and talking about kids games. If the time ever comes, this will be hard to explain to the aliens.

But beyond the occasional opportunity to tell an important story, I do believe that I and others like me provide at least one important public service: to provide, and hopefully somehow enhance, the experience of escaping those stresses or debates.

So, at least with the way I believe my job is best done, I don’t want to ruin that. There are certain things I’ll talk or write about, but hopefully, on the whole, this is a safe space from the rhetoric and divide of politics.

Now, I hope you’ll allow me something of a disclaimer here. I don’t mean any of this here to be preachy about how I see my job, or judgy on the many talented sports writers who’ve chosen a different way. The first amendment is a beautiful thing, and we should all feel free to express ourselves.

I’ve made my choice on how I’ll express myself. I do believe it’s the best way, certainly for me, and hopefully for you too.

Yeah, so, this is two weeks in a row the Chiefs have won with their quarterback (and therefore offense) playing poorly. I tend to see that as more of a good thing — they won — but also understand the concern. I know that in meetings and practice this week, the players and coaches aren’t pretending nothing is wrong just because of the result.

If you want to go down this road, the most troubling part is that there isn’t a lot of ceiling on this offense. Some of that is the quarterback, but some of it is their most accomplished playmaker likely missing the rest of the season, their No. 1 receiver being slowed and unproductive, and their terrific tight end also needing to make more plays.

The Chiefs finished ninth in points and sixth in Football Outsiders’ efficiency rankings last year, which I know surprises some people. They can be better than they’ve been so far, but this will never be a top five offense.

In order, one man’s list of what needs to happen for the offense to improve:

1. Alex Smith needs to be better. By my count, he’s only been good in four games so far — Oakland, New Orleans, Jets, and Chargers. If you want, you can make a case he wasn’t good against the Jets — that was much more about the defense and Fitzpatrick, and Smith merely avoiding mistakes — and I won’t push back. The Chargers game could be debated, too, since he (along with nearly everyone else) was atrocious for 2  1/2 quarters.

Smith appeared timid at times in Carolina, and missed some basic throws he just does not miss. We talked about this (and many other things) on the Border Patrol yesterday, but nobody knows how much, if any, of that came from his head bouncing off the turf twice in Indianapolis. Smith says none, but that’s probably what he should say, and besides, I don’t think even he can be sure.

But no matter what, Smith needs to be better than what we’ve seen so far.

2. Mix in more deep passes. Some of this could be included in No. 1, but there are some play-calling components here, too. The Chiefs are, at least in theory, excellent in short and medium passing, as well as with the run game.

They get by on that, to some extent, but with Tyreek Hill’s emergence they finally have a legitimate deep threat. Hill seems to be a bigger part of the offense each week — he led the team in targets, with 13, and had 10 catches the other day — and if that can continue it will only open up the underbelly of the field. Speaking of which...

3. Get Maclin and Kelce going. As long as Charles is injured, these are the Chiefs’ two most accomplished playmakers, and neither has been as productive as you’d expect. Maclin is getting the ball less, and Kelce is missing plays by a blink. Sometimes those misses are on him, sometimes the quarterback, and at least once the referee. But, still.

Maclin is a little harder to figure. He is such a well-rounded player, and you’d expect the exact opposite by this point, but he has not appeared comfortable. There was the play in Pittsburgh that sticks out, but I don’t remember a lot of moments where he’s wide open and not getting the ball. I am fully aware that I could just be missing them, or not understanding the offense well enough.

4. Keep Spencer Ware healthy. Charcandrick West led the Chiefs in rushing last year, but to me he looks obviously slowed this season. For his and the Chiefs’ sake, I’m hoping he’s grinding through an injury.

But either way, Ware is now, by far, the team’s best back. He is a cold combination of strength and speed, with good vision, and enough blocking and catching chops to be productive in the pass game.

But he had the concussion in Indianapolis, and missed some snaps on Sunday with an injury. The Chiefs have done a remarkable job of covering up Charles’ injury, but losing Ware would be tough.

5. The offensive line. Carolina has a terrific front seven, but all those false starts are unacceptable. The line has been, at least in my view, pretty good this season. Their communication has been on point, and it’s an athletic group that gets into space and opens big plays. Some notable exceptions aside, they’ve been fairly reliable in protecting Smith.

Without knowing what the numbers would be, at the moment, I would say Berry, and that’s different from what I would’ve said before the season.

Poe plays the more important position, and he’s younger, and none of this is an argument against him. He is so talented, and a consistent force. The tackle for loss toward the end of the Jaguars game is an example of the kind of individual win that’s often overlooked by nature of his position, but can be critical at the point of attack.

But Berry is so versatile, and smart, and the Chiefs use him in enough different ways to get rare value from a safety. He played what may’ve been his best game on Sunday, not just the pick-six, and not even shedding a pulling tackle to run the league’s most gifted player out of bounds for a loss, but in many subtle ways, too.

He’s strong against the run, nearly always in the right position, and as long as he stays light enough can do enough covering to get you by.

I also buy in to his leadership. This is a tricky thing, and often a trap for fans and media, but I believe in it with Berry for a few reasons. His combination of ability, brains, ambition, preparation and commitment is rare. Dorsey and Reid preach character, constantly, and losing Berry would mean losing a unique man. All of this would be true without his cancer diagnosis, but the way he handled that fight certainly helps.

He is also a needed balance to Marcus Peters in the secondary, and I say that as someone who’s been all-in on Peters and everything he brings from the beginning. Remember back in training camp, when Peters was openly talking about it being Berry’s defensive backs room, even when Berry was in his holdout? That’s important.

So, again, I don’t know what the money would end up being. I don’t think anybody does. The Chiefs should (and I assume will) at least try to keep Berry and Poe.

But if it has to be one or the other, I’d keep Berry. Chris Jones has been good enough to ride with.

Before the Super Bowl, unless the Chiefs are in the Super Bowl, at which point it will be announced as soon as everyone calms down.

This is already the best shape the organization has been in since the 1990s, and they have a real chance at a home playoff game and to win playoff games in consecutive seasons for the first time ever.

Let that sink in a little, by the way: the Kansas City Chiefs have never won playoff games in consecutive seasons.

I know some people like to give the Chiefs credit for wins in the seasons they had first-round byes. I happen to disagree with that premise, but even if you want to be nice and do that, the Chiefs have never had either a first-round bye or a playoff win in consecutive seasons.

They have a very real chance of doing that this season, and all of this, I probably don’t have to tell you, immediately following what could be the worst shape the organization has been in since, well, maybe ever.

Reid and Dorsey are not the only ones who’ve made this possible. Each man has talented and dedicated assistants. Clark Hunt has evolved as the chairman. Most importantly, the players have bought in and won games.

But the coach and GM are probably the two most important pieces of this, and they will have earned those extensions whenever they come.

This is a great question, and one I’m not sure a lot of people are thinking about at the moment.

This is the first offseason when the Chiefs can, realistically, walk away from Smith. Like all NFL contracts, the details are somewhat complicated, and we’re about to get nerdy, but 2016 is the last year of fully guaranteed salary.

His salary goes from $14.1 million to $10.8 million, his cap hit from $17.8 million to $16.9 million, and — here’s the important number — his dead cap number from $25 million to $7.2 million. There’s also a $2 million roster bonus for next year. I’m not sure when that kicks in, but I assume the Chiefs have time to make an advance decision that would keep them from paying that, if they wanted to walk away.

Now, none of that matters nearly as much as the answer to this question: what are the Chiefs’ options? The best option would be Kirk Cousins, if he does hit free-agency, but that’s not a lock and there would be other teams interested. The Chiefs could also go with Nick Foles, or find someone in the draft.

The problem with the draft is that the Chiefs will be drafting low, so they’d need to trade up to get one of the better prospects, a list headed by Deshaun Watson and DeShone Kizer. The other problem with the draft is that you’d be handing a win-now team over to a rookie quarterback, and, Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson notwithstanding, that’s a very risky proposition.

I can also pause here a moment for you to #LOL at the Chiefs trading up to draft a quarterback.

This highlights one of the subtle forces that will likely bring Smith back next year, which I guess a cynic could call inertia, but a Chiefs source may label as institutional commitment. They will have put four years into Smith with this offense, and when he’s right, he makes the trains move on time.

My guess is that Smith will be back, but this is a question that should not and cannot be answered right now. There is a worst-case scenario in which Smith is spooked, and that the Carolina game is more of what we’ll see going forward than, say, the Oakland game. If that happens, or anything close to it, the Chiefs will owe it to themselves to be aggressive and at that point it’s an internal calculus among Foles, the draft, and running at Cousins, if he’s a free agent.

Abso-dang-lutely.

We don’t know any of these guys, not really, anyway. Not like their closest friends do, or their family. But at least on some levels, we can be fairly sure we know a few things about Marcus Peters:

▪  even if he owned a damn so small it could only be seen by the world’s most powerful microscope, he would not give that damn about what anyone other than his closest friends and family think.

▪  he has found something in life that he loves so much that it occasionally makes him lose his dang mind. He also happens to be incredibly gifted at that thing, and works as hard as a human can be expected to work, to be his best self at that thing.

We’re all on different spectrums of the give-a-damn spectrum, but all our lives would be a little simpler if we moved closer down toward Peters’ end. And the world would be a much better, much happier, place if we all found in our work what Peters has found in his.

This story was originally published November 15, 2016 at 11:52 AM with the headline "Mellinger Minutes: So much Chiefs, a little Royals, and some Stick To Sports."