A look at Mizzou’s chances for a SEC Tournament double bye and its NCAA resume
Southeastern Conference men’s basketball had one of its most unpredictable days yet on Saturday.
No. 10 Auburn, the conference’s top team, lost at South Carolina after being down by more than 20 points at halftime. Vanderbilt, tied for last in the conference going into the weekend, beat Florida, and Georgia topped No. 18 Tennessee.
Oh, and Missouri’s winning streak ended at five games with a loss at LSU, which was a disappointment for MU but was one of the less surprising results around the league on Saturday.
In total, the teams that sat higher than their opponents in the SEC standings went 2-5 on Saturday. The result: Even after losing at LSU, Mizzou (8-6 in conference) is now in a four-way tie for third. Arkansas, Florida and Alabama are the other three teams.
With four regular-season games remaining, Missouri still has a shot to earn a top-four seed and a double bye to the conference tournament quarterfinals in St. Louis. If the SEC Tournament began today, these would be the seedings. The Nos. 11-14 seeds play first, with the winners joining seeds 5-10 in the second round. The four second-round winners then face the top four seeds in the quarterfinals.
Tournament seed | Team | Overall record | Conference record | Tiebreaker |
1 | Auburn | 23-4 | 11-3 | |
2 | Tennessee | 19-7 | 9-5 | |
3 | Florida | 17-10 | 8-6 | Winning pct. vs. other tied teams: .66 (2-1) |
4 | Alabama | 17-10 | 8-6 | Winning pct. vs. other tied teams: .500 (1-1), then winning pct. vs. No. 1 seed (Auburn): 1.000 (1-0) |
5 | Arkansas | 19-8 | 8-6 | Winning pct. vs. other tied teams: .500 (1-1), then winning pct. vs. No. 1 seed (Auburn): 0.00 (0-1) |
6 | Missouri | 18-9 | 8-6 | Winning pct. vs. other tied teams: .333 (1-2) |
7 | Kentucky | 18-9 | 7-7 | Head-to-head result: 1-0 vs. Mississippi State |
8 | Mississippi State | 19-8 | 7-7 | Head-to-head result: 0-1 vs. Kentucky |
9 | Georgia | 15-11 | 6-8 | Winning pct. vs. other tied teams: 1.000 (1-0) |
10 | LSU | 15-11 | 6-8 | Winning pct. vs. other tied teams: .500 (1-1) |
11 | Texas A&M | 17-10 | 6-8 | Winning pct. vs. other tied teams: .000 (0-1) |
12 | South Carolina | 14-13 | 5-9 | Head-to-head result: 1-0 vs. Vanderbilt |
13 | Vanderbilt | 11-16 | 5-9 | Head-to-head result: 0-1 vs. South Carolina |
14 | Mississippi | 11-16 | 4-10 |
Some games still need to happen to make these tiebreakers fair, of course. Alabama plays at Florida on Feb. 27. Missouri hosts Arkansas to finish the Tigers’ season. Georgia still has home games against LSU and Texas A&M left on its schedule.
According to ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index, “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward,” Mizzou has the fifth easiest schedule left of any SEC team. Only LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt are ahead of MU.
Every remaining game could be key to Mizzou earning a double bye, but the Tigers’ home game against Arkansas to close out the regular season could have some added importance. In addition to impacting each team’s conference record, it will also affect each team’s winning percentage vs. the other teams in the current four-way tie for third place. The Razorbacks beat MU in Arkansas in January.
Here are the expected final records for each SEC team, according to KenPom.com:
Team | Remaining schedule | Projected finish |
Auburn | vs. Alabama, at Florida, at Arkansas, vs. South Carolina | 26-5, 14-4 |
Tennessee | vs. Florida, at Mississippi, at Mississippi State, vs. Georgia | 22-8, 12-6 |
Florida | at Tennessee, vs. Auburn, at Alabama, vs. Kentucky | 19-12, 10-8 |
Alabama | at Auburn, vs. Arkansas, vs. Florida, at Texas A&M | 19-12, 10-8 |
Arkansas | vs. Kentucky, at Alabama, vs. Auburn, at Missouri | 21-10, 10-8 |
Missouri | vs. Mississippi, at Kentucky, at Vanderbilt, vs. Arkansas | 20-11, 10-8 |
Kentucky | at Arkansas, vs. Missouri, vs. Mississippi, at Florida | 20-11, 9-9 |
Mississippi State | at Texas A&M, vs. South Carolina, vs. Tennessee, at LSU | 21-10, 9-9 |
Georgia | at South Carolina, vs. LSU, vs. Texas A&M, at Tennessee | 17-13, 8-10 |
LSU | vs. Vanderbilt, at Georgia, at South Carolina, vs. Mississippi State | 17-13, 8-10 |
Texas A&M | vs. Mississippi State, at Vanderbilt, at Georgia, vs. Alabama | 20-11, 9-9 |
South Carolina | vs. Georgia, at Mississippi State, vs. LSU, at Auburn | 16-15, 7-11 |
Vanderbilt | at LSU, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Missouri, at Mississippi | 13-18, 7-11 |
Mississippi | at Missouri, vs. Tennessee, at Kentucky, vs. Vanderbilt | 12-19, 5-13 |
Finally, let’s look at Mizzou’s record in quadrant one and two games, which are fancy words for the NCAA Tournament committee’s new selection criteria. This system considers where games happened, rather than only consider an opponent’s RPI.
Quadrant 1: home games vs. teams ranked 1-30 in the NCAA’s RPI, neutral site games vs. 1-50, road games vs. 1-75
Quadrant 2: home games vs. RPI 31-75, neutral site games vs. 51-100, road games vs. 76-135
Quadrant 3: home games vs. RPI 76-160, neutral site games vs. 101-200, road games vs. 136-240
Quadrant 4: home games vs. RPI 161+, neutral site games vs. 201+, road games vs. 241+
After the loss at LSU, Missouri is 5-7 in Quadrant 1 games. The Tigers are 5-1 in Quadrant 2 games. These records are fluid, though, because teams’ RPIs will continue to change. The NCAA’s latest RPI rankings have LSU at No. 75 and South Carolina, which MU beat on the road in January, at No. 77. If the Gamecocks can move up into the top 75, that will give Mizzou another Quadrant 1 win. This should not make a huge difference, though, and the Tigers don’t need it to.
Barring a collapse, Mizzou will make its first NCAA Tournament in five seasons. The question now is how good of a seed they can receive, in both the conference tournament and the field of 68.
Aaron Reiss: 816-234-4042, @aaronjreiss
This story was originally published February 18, 2018 at 11:38 AM with the headline "A look at Mizzou’s chances for a SEC Tournament double bye and its NCAA resume."