How bad luck might be messing with KU’s defensive numbers

The Kansas men’s basketball team is winning with offense.

The Jayhawks are outscoring their flaws at this point, using elite outside shooting and a relentless transition attack to hold off opponents at the end of games.

The question that still comes up often, though, is this: What’s wrong with KU’s normally reliable defense?

The stats haven’t been great so far. After ranking third in defensive efficiency last year, Kansas is 28th this season — a mark that, if it stands, would be the worst for Kansas coach Bill Self in his 14 seasons with the Jayhawks.

Last year seems to be an approriate model for this year’s defense, considering the two rosters are similar. Neither team has an elite shot-blocker (like Cole Aldrich or Jeff Withey) while three of the main defensive pieces (Frank Mason, Devonté Graham and Landen Lucas) are the same from a season ago.

We know from statistician Dean Oliver that there are four main factors to winning, with each receiving a different approximate weight: shooting (40 percent), turnovers (25 percent), rebounding (20 percent) and free-throw rate (15 percent).

So where is Kansas lagging behind?

The numbers are surprisingly close in most areas (albeit with the Jayhawks playing a slightly easier schedule this year compared to last). Kansas is fouling less than it did a season ago, and its defensive rebounding numbers are just a tick off last year’s pace. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks’ turnover numbers this season and last are nearly identical.

It appears the biggest difference is that KU’s defense has allowed more shots to go in. We can break this down even further.

This is surprising at first glance. Though it seems KU has been allowing more layups this season, opponents’ two-point percentage is exactly the same as it was a season ago. Instead, Kansas’ opponents are shooting a higher percentage from three-point range, and that difference appears to be the biggest reason for the team taking a step back defensively.

There’s good news and bad news with this. Ken Pomeroy recently found that three-point shooting is 83 percent dictated by the offense and 17 percent by the defense, meaning it’s difficult for a defense to control what happens once threes leave an opponent’s hand.

His stance, then, has been that the best three-point defense is preventing those outside shots. And Kansas has been above-average at that this year, with opponents shooting 33 percent of their attempts from three-point range (79th-lowest mark nationally).

But just because Kansas has little control over opponents’ three-point shooting doesn’t mean the defense has no control. There have appeared to be times that the Jayhawks have overhelped on drives and also been slow on closeouts, which conceivably would give teams more open looks.

So is that what’s hurting KU?

Synergy Sports Technology tracks guarded and unguarded “catch and shoot” attempts for each team’s halfcourt defense. This includes both two- and three-pointers.

The caveat first: Synergy’s database is based on game loggers, so what constitutes “guarded” and “unguarded” can be a bit subjective.

Having said that, these numbers are wacky. Essentially, KU’s defense has been better on jumpshots this year when it hasn’t guarded shooters.

Overall, Kansas ranks 344th nationally in that “guarded” stat — and I’m not sure there’s a good reason for it other than bad luck. Kansas was 164th last year, 87th the year before and 279th three years ago, so perhaps this is just one of those random quirks that is hurting the team even when it’s performing about the same as it did last season.

This much is true: Kansas’ path to defensive success has less margin for error because of the circumstances. Josh Jackson has been a better shot-blocker than he’s given credit for, but he’s not an eraser like Aldrich or Withey. And it doesn’t appear this team will apply additional pressure to force more turnovers, as that would be asking a lot out of Mason and Graham, who already have been playing 36-plus minutes per game.

Kansas has won in the past — last year being one of the best examples — by forcing teams into one bad shot and grabbing the rebound.

The problem this year appears to be that a lot of those guarded shots aren’t missing.

And though that might be a bit fluky, it’s affecting the Jayhawks’ defensive numbers all the same.

This story was originally published January 19, 2017 at 5:40 PM with the headline "How bad luck might be messing with KU’s defensive numbers."