Trump and Clinton candidacies leave down-ballot campaigners nervous and aggressive

He’s the man who isn’t here.

Sen. Roy Blunt, the Missouri Republican locked in a tighter-than-expected race for re-election, decided some time ago to skip his party’s national convention this year.

That means no Blunt prime-time speeches in Cleveland. Not a single Blunt sign or bumper sticker. No Blunt hospitality suites or fundraising events.

Blunt’s convention no-show might seem unusual and risky. Conventions offer a place for candidates to ask the party faithful for time and cash.

But consider this: Blunt’s opponent, Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander, just announced he’ll skip the Democratic convention next week.

Both candidates insist they’ve got work to do in the state. Both say they aren’t ducking their nominees, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Almost no one is buying it.

“It’s a very bizarre year,” said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University in Topeka who is in Cleveland for the GOP convention. “You can’t really paper over the fact that so many people are skipping (the conventions).”

It isn’t just Missouri. Politicians from several states are staying out of the limelight this week. Next week, prominent Democrats will skip their convention.

In Kansas, where state legislators will face voters in November, and in races across the country, most candidates do their best to maintain a discreet distance from the top of their party’s ticket.

Clinton and Trump remain the most unpopular presidential candidates pollsters have ever seen.

At the same time, campaigns try desperately to link their opponents to the presidential nominees. Democratic candidates demand Republicans to react to every Trump utterance, while GOP hopefuls put Clinton in a picture with the Democrats they face.

Kander “can stay away from Philadelphia, but he can’t disguise his support for her,” said Blunt campaign spokesman Burson Snyder.

Nonsense, Kander’s campaign says.

“He was looking forward to supporting Missouri’s delegates,” spokeswoman Anne Feldman said. “This was purely a scheduling decision, nothing more.”

Of course, Democrats aren’t shy about connecting Blunt and Trump. “Roy Blunt stands with Donald Trump on an economy that works for the wealthy,” the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said last week.

Privately, some Missouri Republicans are grumbling about Blunt’s absence in Cleveland. Blunt remains a controversial figure for some in the state’s GOP after trying to force Todd Akin out of the Senate race in 2012. Some delegates say the senator might have used the convention to mend a fence or two.

Whether any of this will matter in November is an unresolved question.

Nationalizing state and local elections is an old habit. Republicans in Kansas have repeatedly used the specter of President Barack Obama to convince voters to vote for GOP candidates, even in some local races.

In 2010, Missouri Democrat Robin Carnahan — then a U.S. Senate candidate — spent a day with Obama in Kansas City, raising money and speaking to the public. Blunt’s campaign used those images relentlessly, and he cruised to an easy victory.

This year, though, Republicans may be getting a taste of that medicine after nominating Trump. Democrats are accustomed to avoiding the top of the ticket, he said, while Republicans aren’t.

“The fear is you never know what Trump will do,” Beatty said. “So the best strategy for a Republican in this race is to be on the fence.”

Republicans have discussed just such an approach for months. Rep. Kevin Yoder of Kansas, for example, came to this week’s convention and has embraced Trump as the nominee. But Yoder has said he disagrees with Trump on several issues.

And in other states, candidates are “supporting” Trump without “endorsing” him, a rhetorical device that Democrats plan to attack in the fall.

Republicans in Cleveland say the reality is complicated. Trump will bring new voters into the GOP fold, they think — voters who might help not only Blunt but the eventual Republican nominee for governor and others in down-ballot races.

“Donald Trump should have the same margin of victory that Mitt Romney had” in Missouri, said David Spence, a Missouri delegate and onetime candidate for governor. “I think (that) helps down-ticket races.”

Some Republicans in Cleveland said linking Trump and Clinton to down-ballot candidates might backfire.

“Honestly, people make their own decisions, based on what they know about the candidates,” said Missouri delegate and Jackson County GOP chairman Mark Anthony Jones, “not necessarily the leaders of the party.”

Top-of-the-ticket linkage is likely in Kansas, Republican leaders said.

While no statewide offices are at stake this year, postcards with pictures of Trump, Clinton and Obama are certain to wind up in mailboxes this fall.

“The top of the ticket is always what turns out people to vote,” said Kelly Arnold, chairman of the Kansas Republican Party. “It’s always the federal issues that really inspire voters.”

Some of the impact of the Clinton-Trump matchup may depend on the candidates’ schedules and spending habits this fall. Kansas is considered strong Trump territory, so neither campaign will spend much time or money there after Labor Day.

Missouri is also a Trump state. But Clinton may decide to contest the state or help raise money for party operations, providing extra money for Democrats in down-ballot races.

Republicans don’t expect any organizational bump from Trump. The GOP nominee’s campaign in Missouri is virtually invisible.

Money and organization aside, though, voters might be excused this fall from thinking Trump and Clinton are more important than the actual candidates in down-ballot races. Campaigns are expected to use the candidates’ images repeatedly before voters go to the polls.

Skipping the conventions doesn’t really solve that problem.

Candidates at all levels would be considered on their own merits “in an ideal world,” said Pat Thomas, a Missouri delegate in Cleveland.

“But it’s not the ideal world.”

This story was originally published July 20, 2016 at 4:40 PM with the headline "Trump and Clinton candidacies leave down-ballot campaigners nervous and aggressive."