Travis Kelce is even more important to KC Chiefs’ path forward than you might think
The first step is the most important. The right first step does not guarantee a catch, but the wrong first step guarantees nothing.
When the networks show a receiver’s — or, in this case, a tight end’s — route the focus is usually on the break, and that’s important too, but with the wrong first step the break never happens.
For weeks — for what felt like forever — Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce was getting the wrong first step.
And it had an outsized effect on the Chiefs’ struggles, and on the worst stretch of Patrick Mahomes’ career.
“I’m pretty sure it’s been like this since 2015, 2016, when I first started to get on,” Kelce said. “It’s probably more relevant now because I’m a more vital part of the offense and you’re seeing the camera on me a little more.”
Three weeks ago, the Giants linebackers and defensive backs cosplayed actual street muggers against Kelce. They pressed him at the line of scrimmage on 19 routes, and he had one of the least productive games of his career with four catches and 27 yards. He also lost a fumble and generally gave off dog-just-died vibes.
Here’s another angle:
Last weekend, Kelce had clean breaks on all but five routes and he had his most productive game of the season — eight catches, 119 yards, and dance-like-you’re-in-a-rap-video vibes.
The rise or fall of this Chiefs season will depend on too many factors to overstate one. Mahomes will always be the most important man in the organization. The offensive line must continue to protect. The defense’s ability to stretch their recent success into the more difficult parts of the schedule will be critical. Turnovers. Penalties. Special teams. All the stuff.
Kelce has always been a critical part of what the Chiefs are and how they do it. That is particularly true this season as teams have consistently pulled two safeties 20 or so yards from the line of scrimmage to take away deep passes to Tyreek Hill.
An improved run game is important here, but so is Kelce’s control of the short and intermediate routes. Simply put: teams are focused on stopping Hill from scoring in a blink, and the best way for the Chiefs to counter is with shorter gains, and the best way for the Chiefs to consistently grab shorter gains is through Kelce.
His production remains strong — he leads all tight ends in targets, catches and receiving yards — but he’s on pace for his fewest yards per game since 2017 and his fewest yards per target and yards per catch of his career.
In Kelce’s career the Chiefs’ win percentage when he gets 10 or more targets is .750, compared with .689 when he gets fewer than 10.
The win percentage is .774 when he goes for at least 75 yards, compared with .652 when he does not.
Put another way: defenses are highly incentivized to keep Kelce from getting looks, and this season have occasionally pushed the boundaries of legal contact downfield to slow him down.
Kelce can downplay the attention he’s getting, and say that he’s seen press coverage at the line of scrimmage his entire career, but it’s not a secret that teams have exaggerated that strategy this season. Reid has referenced it a few different times this season.
It’s a thing.
The Chiefs put him in motion even more than usual against the Raiders, including one snap where lined up as a fullback and ended up with a 22-yard catch-and-run.
“They gave me an opportunity to not just be in one spot, but to be in multiple spots on the field,” he said. “The motions help me get off the ball a little easier. Doesn’t allow a guy to just sit on top of me. Then, you know, just flat out having an answer for when I do get pressed: being violent, and just trying to work my techniques and fundamentals.”
He’s not kidding about the violent part, either.
Brandon Facyson is a 6-foot-2, 200-pound cornerback most comfortable and effective in press man coverage. The Raiders tried using those strengths against Kelce.
The result was not pretty.
“That big corner, 35, he was strong,” Reid said. “So when Trav came off (the line of scrimmage), he established who was stronger. So that becomes important. He’s worked very hard at that.”
The challenge now becomes repeating that success, particularly if defenses go back toward defending the deeper part of the field with more vigor.
The Cowboys have improved defensively in coordinator Dan Quinn’s first season, and generally rely on physicality and playmaking.
They know their defensive backs have been vulnerable on double moves, and they know that Tyreek Hill is among the league’s most explosive receivers with double moves (and sometimes even triple moves).
The Cowboys will be particularly focused on eye discipline, limiting yards after the catch, and stopping the league’s most efficient team on third down (53.3 percent). Those are all areas where Kelce is especially dangerous.
This could be his biggest challenge yet. Pay extra attention to that first step, and his ability to beat physical coverage.
That will be the key to whether he can get to a celebration’s first step.
This story was originally published November 19, 2021 at 9:58 AM.