Mellinger Minutes: Are the KC Chiefs back? Plus, Creed’s fall and KU-Texas (lol)
OK, so these are intangible and subjective and by definition up to interpretation, but for all the talk about Patrick Mahomes throwing for 405 yards and five touchdowns and Travis Kelce dancing and telling the world he has his swagger back, the surest sign that the Chiefs are again a championship contender may have come in the post-game news conference.
People can lie with their words, even when they believe they’re telling the truth. Body language is more trustworthy, and if you want you can watch the difference for yourself.
Here is Patrick Mahomes after the Giants game. Make your own decision, but to me that looks like a guy in a sweet shirt trying to tell himself that things aren’t as rough as they feel.
Here is Mahomes after the Raiders game. Make your own decision, but to me that looks like a guy who had his best night of the year and knows he needed it.
We talked last week about how that last throw against the Packers might unlock something not just in Mahomes, but in the offense and team more broadly.
Well … doesn’t it look like that’s what happened?
Look, the Raiders are a good team, but not a great one. They may be in the midst of a season-crushing crisis, with the weight of some wild and, in one case, tragic drama proving too much. They did lose to the Giants last week.
But the Chiefs scored 13 more points against the Raiders than anyone else has so far this season (a list that includes the Ravens and Chargers) and gained nearly 100 more yards.
And as much as we talk about the Chiefs’ offense — and we should — I also wonder if we’re going to see these last few weeks as an important time for the defense.
Because while the offense has struggled, the defense held it down and turned 33 points total against the crappy Giants and Rodgers-less Packers into two wins. The Chiefs are close enough to the cliff’s edge that if either of those games was a loss, the season would feel different at the moment.
Mahomes has acknowledged this, too, saying that it helped him to see that it’s OK to punt right now because the defense will have his back. Coincidence or not, he has just two interceptions in his last four games. It has to do some good for the mental state of both the offense and defense to know Mahomes does not have to be the MVP for this team to win.
Going back to back to that horrendous interception against Washington — the one that had his teammates laughing at him watching film — Mahomes has nine touchdowns and two interceptions in his last 196 passes.
We talk a lot about Mahomes’ physical gifts, and the possibilities that are unlocked. But I think we’ve seen enough of him by now to know that his real superpower is his brain. He processes so quickly. He’s essentially the league’s only quarterback who defenses don’t bother blitzing.
And I think what we’ve seen is that when Mahomes starts pressing or his mind gets cloudy he can get stuck in the mud. But when he’s clear and seeing things on time he is perhaps the best quarterback to ever do it.
The Chiefs have shown they can get by with Mahomes playing like a normal human quarterback — they were an AFC contender before he got here — but the win in Las Vegas was a nice reminder of what they can look like when he plays to his standard.
This week’s reading recommendation is Justin Tinsley on Henry Ruggs and the cousin he hardly knew, and the eating recommendation is Tay’s Burger Shack, where you people should be going instead of Whataburger. There. I said what I said.
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I thought Andy and the rest of the offensive coaches did a *great* job of using screens to keep the Raiders’ pass rush on its heels.
Andy has different flavors of screens. Some are meant to attack, some are meant as a counterpunch, some are meant as a change of pace.
I thought this one — called early, on the Chiefs’ second drive — was a good example of a counterpunch. The linemen aren’t necessarily getting downfield in front of Williams, but the play-call here is intentional, and the result important.
We often tend to get reductive and results-focused when it comes to play calling — do more of the stuff that works, and less of the stuff that doesn’t!
So at the risk of falling into that trap, it just felt like the Chiefs had a much better feel and balance against the Raiders than any other game this season. The Raiders didn’t play nearly as much Cover-2 as most teams have, so maybe that’s part of it, but the Chiefs had a nice mix of run and pass (at least early) as well as a nice mix of depths in the passing game.
Travis Kelce was clean off the line of scrimmage on most snaps and ripping apart the short and intermediate field. He unlocks so much when he’s able to do that, and the Chiefs took advantage with the occasional downfield shot as well as deep crosses and shorter passes.
The offensive line played really well, too. It’s easy to jump on those guys at the first sign of pressure, but the Raiders have one of the best pass defenses in the league and it’s all based on pressure up front. Playing Andrew Wylie, the third-string right tackle, against former college teammate Maxx Crosby could have been a deal-breaker. Wylie had his struggles, but Mahomes was hit just twice and never sacked.
Mike Hughes had the fumble, and there are some other spots the Chiefs will want to clean up but, really, that’s as close to the ceiling as we’ve seen this group perform.
Look, for me, this is one of the moments of the season:
It’s the way he just goes straight on his back, hands and feet in the air, like a bullied turtle. Marcus Smart and Vlade Divac think this is over the top. There is not a soccer player in the world who would expect to get away with something like this. I also enjoy the way Joe Thuney points, as if the officials need the help.
Just really well done all around, fellas.
But I do want to make double sure the line gets its flowers today. It’s easy to point out the misses, but this group is basically turning into the optimistic vision of what they would be — different, stronger and, with time, one of the better groups in the league.
Pro Football Focus has them as the sixth-best pass blocking unit in the league, and second-best in run-blocking. Football Outsiders has them 10th in run-blocking and eighth in the pass. The Chiefs have the fifth-lowest sack percentage, according to Pro Football Reference.
There’s no perfect way to grade linemen, or offensive lines as a whole. We all see things differently, and I’m not sure there’s a specific part of major American sports that is more widely misunderstood than offensive line play. This is not me throwing stones — I’d like to learn a lot more.
But all of these measurements can’t all be wrong. Mahomes, at least to my amateur eye, is doing a better job of understanding where his guys are washing pass-rushers, and responding accordingly. The trust is building, along with understanding.
That’s a critical part of this, too.
That’s the plan.
I think it’s probably true that Melvin Ingram has more in the tank right now than Suggs did when the Chiefs picked him up in 2019, and I’m certain it’s true that the Chiefs need some extra juice now more than they did two years ago.
Ingram is an adult pass-rusher. He’s not the player he was in his mid-20s, but he’s still strong, still fierce, and still has the tools in the box. He’s not a one-trick rusher, which keeps the defense from focusing on one thing.
His best move is probably the bull rush, and he’s terrific at getting leverage and disengaging at the right moment. But he can also get around the edge enough to keep a tackle honest, and his spin is as good as it’s ever been.
He also seems fully bought in, and not just willing but eager to fit in. There are subtle ways his teammates talk about him that let you in on that. It’s not a total coincidence that they’ve played their best since his arrival.
The cat-and-mouse part of NFL strategy is layered, and there will be adjustments made that the Chiefs will have to deal with. Specifically, I wonder if offenses — especially ones with strong run games and lines, like the Cowboys — can exploit Chris Jones’ edge snaps with the run.
I also wonder if offenses will focus on pushing Clark and Ingram wide, opening holes in the middle for a mobile quarterback or running back to force Nick Bolton and Anthony Hitchens to chase.
There are changes coming, is the point, but right now we’re working on a five-game sample where the Chiefs are giving up an average of 15.6 points.
The Cowboys will be the Chiefs’ toughest challenge since Tennessee and Buffalo, and we know how those games went, which means in terms of fan confidence and #narrative this game on Sunday is an outsized chunk of the season.
If the Chiefs lose, they’re going to hear some weapons-grade hate: that they’re just another mediocre AFC team capable of beating other mediocre teams but stuck at the kids’ table when it’s dinnertime.
But if they win — and, really, it doesn’t matter how they do it — then all of a sudden this group has won four in a row, including all three in a defining stretch of the season against three legitimate playoff contenders.
Depending on how far you want to think ahead, the Chiefs would then take a well-timed bye and then finish with six games in which they’d likely be favored in at least five — Broncos, Raiders, at Chargers (on a Thursday night, which would be rough), Steelers, at Bengals, at Broncos.
This group has a history of finishing strong. I’ve become convinced that one of Reid’s greatest evolutions in Kansas City has been a steady trend of finishing strong. This would be one of the most extreme examples on record, but it’s all there in front of them.
I feel like there are a thousand little towns in Kansas with names like that — Americus, Bison, Bushton, Hope, Olpe — that sound a little bit made up.
The video from Casey’s parents is like a movie, and I’ll post it here because even if you’ve seen it you could stand to watch it once more:
The coaches have an interesting decision with Daniels, because he looks like the kind of talent that can centerpiece at program turnaround. They’d planned on redshirting him this season, which made sense, and he was on board. If that’s the way it goes, I don’t know how we could fault them wanting to protect that extra years.
*Stephen A. Smith voice* Howevah…
I’m not sure I wouldn’t stick with the kid. He’s obviously good enough, and I think messages are important, especially early in rebuilds. If you stick with him the message is that the best players play, and that the coaches are committed not just to the future but to giving this specific group the best experience possible.
We all understand the temptation and reasons for saving a year, but there are two counterarguments here.
First, won’t he be a better quarterback next year and as a senior with more experience? Won’t his development benefit from riding this specific moment and building him up mentally as much as possible?
And second — this is just the reality of college sports — in a world in which everybody is replaceable it’s up to the coaching staff to recruit and/or develop another quarterback who will be as good or better in 2024 as Daniels would be with an extra year.
Lance Leipold appears to be doing everything right, at least at this very early stage. He’s credible in a way that no KU coach has been since Mark Mangino. And one of his strongest traits has been a commitment to the long-term, and to consistency. Getting through the last two games with other quarterbacks to save Daniels a year would be entirely in line with that philosophy.
But I think the world can see that Daniels is KU’s best quarterback right now, and if the best way to develop and get better is to compete, then we don’t need to decide between whether KU wants to win or develop, because Daniels would be the answer to both questions.
You’re going to think I’m joking here, but I am as serious as an earthquake:
Texas is the best school in the country to have in your conference.
They have a ton of money and popularity, which means every other school in the conference is richer for being affiliated with them.
They are also 54-51 in conference games since 2010, which means you get Alabama-level money in exchange for playing against the equivalent of Iowa State (before Iowa State got good).
You guys, that is the American dream: full-time income for part-time work!
College sports is a wild world, and it’s not a meritocracy. Certain schools will always have advantages, and others will always be pushing the boulder up the mountain.
Oklahoma is a notable loss in terms of national credibility in football, but the argument can be made that the Big 12 will be a more difficult league to navigate with Cincinnati, UCF, Houston and BYU. The problem is the Big 12 will be a poorer league, which means the existing schools are getting the shaft on both ends, which is why we could still see more movement.
Everybody is trying to climb higher and higher on the food chain, to be closer to Michigan than Washington State among Power 5s, that climb will be made more difficult for the holdover Big 12 schools once Oklahoma and Texas leave.
Then again, college sports is changing so comprehensively and so quickly that the structure in five years may be nothing like the structure we know right now.
I would assume so?
There will be an influx soon, and there should be. Only two players who spent time with the Royals this century are inducted — Mike Sweeney and Kevin Appier, and Appier is sort of a technicality since he only pitched 23 innings in 2003 and 2004 for the Royals after a stellar run in the 1990s.
There will be a lot of names to go through. Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon, and Billy Butler are among those who’ve been on the ballot. Alex Gordon recently retired and should be an easy decision. Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Zack Greinke should be in when the time is right. Ned Yost will be in.
Nine men who played for the 1985 Royals* are in the team Hall of Fame. I don’t know that we’ll get to nine from the 2015 team, but it could be close.
* That includes Larry Gura, who was at the end of his career and gone by May, but not manager Dick Howser.
Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Greg Holland and Wade Davis would seem to be locks. That’s seven, and does not include Alcides Escobar. Luke Hochevar was an important part of the franchise’s turnaround and the 2013 and 2015 teams. Danny Duffy has a similar story. Yordano Ventura’s case is interesting. Kelvin Herrera has a place in his conversation, too.
A backlog is coming, is the point, and I’m not sure how this will play out. The timing will be interesting.
But then again, I’m getting off the point of the question.
Joakim Soria was among the sport’s best relievers his first four seasons with the Royals, and is one of the best Rule 5 picks of all-time — a scouting success story for a franchise that has always been built on them. He saved more games for the Royals (162) than everyone else except Jeff Montgomery (304) and Dan Quisenberry (238). He’s in.
Greg Holland was a 10th-round pick and the first man drafted by Dayton Moore’s front office to make the big leagues. He was terrific from the jump, with a 1.80 ERA and 0.933 WHIP with 74 strikeouts and 19 walks in his first full season. He saved 93 games with 193 strikeouts and just 38 walks in 2013 and 2014, and remained dominant until his elbow blew out, and even that is part of the legend — Holland basically became the Monty Python Black Knight, pitching through a torn ligament out of toughness and a next-level stubborn streak. He has to be in.
Wade Davis was the best pitcher on the planet in 2014, with stats that look made up — 0.97 ERA, 0.818 WHIP with 187 strikeouts and 43 walks across 139 1/3 innings. He pitched with a robotic stoicism that belied a legendary passion, anchoring a bullpen that was so dominant it forced the rest of the sport to reconsider possibilities. He threw the final strike of the 2015 World Series, setting off one of the biggest parties in Kansas City history. There’s no way he’s not in.
It’s almost always best to give history a chance to breathe before honoring it, and the Royals’ approach here will be interesting.
I’ve always thought that those teams were more about moments than individuals, so instead of the traditional statues of stars I’ve wondered if the more appropriate path might be to honor those moments that will be in our memories forever — Gordon pointing to the sky, Davis’ hands’ straight up after the last out, Perez reaching into the left-handed batters’ box to pull that ball past Donaldson and so on.
I don’t know if that’s best done with a collection of statues, or maybe a mural on the side of the stadium, or something cooler than my simple brain isn’t thinking about at the moment.
Whenever the norms of a sport change like this, there’s always this moment where it transitions from the former underdog seeming to need the breaks to the new favorite simply appearing like the better team.
We saw that as K-State basketball rose under Frank Martin, Mizzou football with Gary Pinkel and even KU football with Mangino. Lord knows we’ve seen that with the Chiefs overtaking the Broncos in the AFC West and the Royals’ run of success in 2014 and 2015.
That’s what this feels like with the USMNT and Mexico. I watched most of that game the other night, and same as the previous few, it looked like the better team won. Pulisic was the best player on the field, but with Weston McKennie and others the USA has enough talent and depth that there isn’t just one way to play them.
Pulisic pulling out the “Man in the Mirror” shirt was the cold-blooded, cocky, and pre-meditated act of a soccer assassin.
There is every reason to believe the USMNT will continue to rise, but we still haven’t won a non-friendly outside of America in forever. That’s a next step, as well as showing the consistency and maturity to avoid weird slips like Trinidad and Tobago.
But this feels different, doesn’t it?
I get the thing where my feet or legs feel stiff, and crack, but then I take a few steps and everything is fine. My old man stuff — at least so far — is more mental and cultural.
What I mean is that I increasingly find myself with that old man apathy, like an unwillingness to even pretend to care about certain pop culture trends. We talked about this on the Border Patrol, but at one point during a commercial break the Allegiant Stadium video board was showing various celebrities and a fella named Steve Aoki got the biggest bump.
I remember looking at that and for a split second wondering if he was Nori Aoki’s dad or something, then realizing that was dumb, and also feeling a weird stubbornness to refuse to look him up. Wasn’t until the next day, when the Border Patrol guys shamed me, that I googled him and saw that he has like 10 million Instagram followers and is worth something like $95 million.
Who knew being a DJ was so lucrative?
This is a trait I get from my dad, but I am fully on the team of embracing age. Being able to play three hours of pickup basketball on four hours sleep again would be sweet, but I don’t think I’d trade that for the actual self confidence and perspective I used to pretend to have.
I actually think about this stuff more than I should, but I was a bit of a mess in my 20s. I knew what I wanted professionally, and loved hanging out with friends, but that’s about as far as it went for me. I don’t think I knew who I was, or what was really important. I didn’t think about others as much as I should have. I didn’t think about my place in the world as much as I should have.
Maybe this will all change if I start waking up with random back pain or whatever, but I feel like this is the best it’s ever been for me. I wouldn’t say I have it all figured out, but I’m not as plainly clueless as I used to be. My wife is amazing. The kids keep us laughing.
I’ll take that over the pickup games, even if catching that heater from behind the 3-point line is a drug I miss in my soul.
It’s hard for me to know how much of this is genuine, how much of it is ironic, how much of it is ironic specifically because of Mahomes’ involvement, and how much of it is just this weird human thing where we overreact to stuff that we know doesn’t really matter.
Like, have you guys seen these videos from when In-N-Out opened in Texas?
Here’s one, with an otherwise seemingly decent fella literally praising Jesus, and a woman who I’m sure is a nice person literally crying over her double-double. She kept her dirty wrapper!
Now, look. I’m not here to dump on anyone’s joy. I had lunch at In-N-Out in Vegas, and it was … good. If Whataburger makes you that happy, then who am I to say it’s basically Sonic with the option of adding jalapeños?
I’ll always believe the best burger is the one I make at home, followed closely by Shake Shack and then Five Guys, but we all have to find our way in this crazy world and there are worse paths than the one with the ketchup that you all pretend is elite.
This week, I’m particularly grateful to live on a corner lot with a metric crap-ton of big trees that are all shedding across every square inch of our yard and, spoiler alert, the only thing I’m less grateful for than all the leaves is the granular stubbornness and frugality that will not allow me to pay someone to take the leaves away.
I will, once again, choose to abuse my back and hamstrings to save a few dollars. So I guess what I’m saying is that I’ll be particularly grateful for the Tank 7 and wings that I’ll reward myself with when it’s all done.