Led by Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs are still the NFL’s best team. But ...
The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL. That’s not me talking. Or, more specifically, that’s not just me talking. That’s most power rankings you can find, and any betting odds you can find, and most analysts you can find.
They’re all saying the same thing.
Which is a good place to start as players begin to report to training camp in St. Joseph.
Thing is, the Chiefs were the best team in the NFL last year, too. And that’s not just me talking. Same power rankings, same betting odds, same analysts.
And we know how that ended.
The Chiefs’ existence must still feel strange for fans old enough to remember before Patrick Mahomes. This used to be the team clawing its way to the party, hoping to catch a few breaks when they get there. Don’t tell those old Chiefs the odds. The bet was on the breakthrough.
Now this is the team hosting the party, hoping nobody breaks any dishes. Last year, they broke some dishes. Lots of dishes. Big dishes, too.
Here’s the truth: If things go as expected, with no major surprises, the Chiefs will win their second Super Bowl in three years. The dynasty talk that was tabled because the offensive line turned to dust (and also because Tom Brady is a witch) will solidify.
But here’s one more truth: Things never go expected. Not in life, and not in the NFL. Major surprises are why we watch.
That puts the Chiefs knee deep in what are undeniably good problems, but still. Problems. Adding to the precariousness is that theirs is a fairly top-heavy roster in terms of both talent and cap hits.
Think about their pass catchers, for instance. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are stars. After that, though? There’s not a lot. You could say the same thing about the secondary, after Tyrann Mathieu. Or the pass rush, after Chris Jones.
With that in mind, here are five potential problems the Chiefs will work proactively to solve during training camp.
1. The offensive line doesn’t come together.
Maybe you’re surprised that we start here. But we’d seen what the Chiefs’ offense looks like with a capable offensive line, and then the Bucs showed us the other side.
Led by general manager Brett Veach, the Chiefs’ front office pulled off a remarkable transformation. The Chiefs have changed all five spots since the Super Bowl, becoming stronger, deeper and younger in the process. Mike Remmers started the Super Bowl at left tackle, and if he can’t beat out Lucas Niang at right tackle then the Chiefs will have five new starters. As many as three could be rookies.
On paper, everything looks stable. From left to right: Orlando Brown has made two Pro Bowls and is just 25; Joe Thuney has allowed only three sacks in more than 3,000 snaps the last three seasons, according to Pro Football Focus; Creed Humphrey was a second-round pick with terrific tape at Oklahoma; Trey Smith has the look of a long-term starter; and Lucas Niang has a high ceiling.
Critically, the Chiefs have enough depth to cover injuries or shaky development.
But we haven’t seen this group together, and the stakes of protecting Mahomes mean this is worth monitoring. For Brown, for instance, blocking for the Chiefs will be much different than blocking for the Ravens. Rookies can be volatile. Remmers is reliable but comes with a low ceiling.
Bottom line: This group has the potential to be one of the best eight or so in the league. But there are enough moving parts, and lack of history together, that it’s a situation worth monitoring.
2. Pass rush doesn’t materialize.
The Chiefs were 19th in both quarterback hurries and sacks last year, according to Pro Football Reference. Their pass rush graded as 22nd, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Chiefs re-signed Alex Okafor, and the addition of Jarran Reed is a bigger deal than many fans and media have been saying so far. But the pass rush is still too heavily dependent on Jones, even as he’s emerged as one of the game’s best.
The Chiefs gave up a lot in terms of draft capital and cap space to acquire Frank Clark, but with the extremely notable exception of their 2018 playoff run he has not provided the consistent complementary pass rush the team expected.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the league’s best blitz designers and has some interesting talent to deploy. But the coaching staff and roster was built on the idea of creating consistent pressure.
3. The secondary misses Bashaud Breeland.
If the 2020 draft was redone, Chiefs fourth-rounder L’Jarius Sneed would likely go in the top 10. That’s how good teams stay good — undervalued talent thrives through strong scouting, coaching, or both.
Sneed split his snaps between slot corner and boundary corner last season and was effective in both spots. The Chiefs feel good about him going outside and filling the spot left when Breeland signed with the Vikings, but the exchange still leaves the Chiefs a little light on the depth chart in a spot they want to be deep.
Charvarius Ward, Rashad Fenton and Mike Hughes lead an interesting mix of cornerback depth, but overall the position group lacks a proven track record.
The Chiefs’ AFC rivals are heavy with quarterback and receiver talent. This is part of how they will attempt to close the gap.
4. A third receiving threat does not emerge.
Admittedly, we started with good problems and are now eyeballs-deep in champagne problems.
Hill and Kelce combined to catch 57% of Mahomes’ passing yards last season and things turned out fine. If rivals had a piece of sympathy so small it could only be seen by the world’s most powerful microscope, they still would not give it to Chiefs fans worried about who’s catching a Hall of Fame quarterback’s passes alongside two potential Hall of Famers.
But Sammy Watkins’ departure means they’ll be lighter at receiver than last year. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has room to grow. Maybe this is when Mecole Hardman makes a jump.
The Chiefs are already difficult to stop. But opponents’ best chances revolve around either a) the offensive line falling short of reasonable expectations, or b) Mahomes’ options being limited.
5. The run defense.
At this point, maybe we’re at self parody, because this space has fretted about the run defense before, during and after a run that included a Super Bowl win over a team that had the league’s No. 2 rush offense and had run for 285 yards in the NFC Championship Game.
The Chiefs have not had a rush defense that ranked better than 21st since 2015. They’ve won the division every year, and the AFC the last two. This space needs to stop worrying about stopping the run.
Someday.
Bottom line: 31 other teams would trade long-term places with the Chiefs, but that guarantees nothing.
Beginning now, as the players report for training camp, the work intensifies. The Chiefs must buffer themselves from potentially fatal flaws.
This story was originally published July 23, 2021 at 5:00 AM.