Mellinger Minutes: Orlando Brown’s drive, Royals keep winning + staying off your phone
Orlando Brown Jr. is the Chiefs’ new left tackle, and in his first public comments since being traded by the Baltimore Ravens he made it clear he’s excited about both parts of his new title.
He’s excited about the Chiefs, repeatedly mentioning the team’s recent history, Andy Reid’s reputation and the talent of new teammates like Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill.
And he’s particularly excited about being a full-time left tackle, and this was the most interesting part of his introductory video call.
You probably know that Brown’s father played nine seasons at right tackle for the Browns and Ravens. You might not know that Brown Sr. had STRONG feelings about the difference between right tackles and left.
“There’s countless stories I could tell,” Brown Jr. said.
One is that Brown Jr. had to beg his father just to play football, and that when dad finally let him play at 12 or 13 it was only on the promise that he would be a left tackle and play “for 10 years plus, and be a Hall of Famer.”
Brown Jr. was set to start at guard as a high school freshman until his father told the coaches that unless they moved him to left tackle they had to play him on defense. Brown Jr. played defensive tackle that year.
Once Brown Jr. started playing, he watched tapes of all the greats — Anthony Muñoz, Tony Boselli, Bryant McKinney, and others.
He watched his dad’s tape, but not because he was asked.
“Watch Jonathan Ogden, don’t watch me,” Brown Jr. remembered his father saying.
This is interesting. Without hearing the backstory, it’s easy to assume Brown Jr. simply wants the spotlight of the line’s featured position, or the higher salary.
As it turns out, that’s not the case. Brown Jr. is thinking about his father, who died 10 years ago.
“It’s an opportunity to live out my dream, and my father’s dream that he had for me,” Brown Jr. said.
Brown Jr. will get his money, by the way. The plan — and both sides have talked about this — is for him to play out the last year of his rookie contract with a $3.3 million salary and then talk about an extension next offseason.
There’s no way to predict how that will go, of course. The franchise tag value for offensive linemen is expected to be about $16.5 million and will serve as the basis for at least the first year of a new contract. Trent Williams just reset the market with an average annual value of $23 million.
Brown Jr.’s number will likely be somewhere in the middle, the exact amount determined by his play this fall, how much the salary cap increases, and what the rest of the player market does.
That will be a problem that will need to be solved next offseason. It will be a much preferred problem than the one they just solved by trading for Brown Jr.
This week’s reading recommendation is Greg Bishop on Alex Smith’s path to retirement, and the eating recommendation is the beef and cheddar at Chef J BBQ.
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We’re going to take these one at a time here, and then in more depth below, but before we do this at the risk of stating the obvious this is a great time in Kansas City sports.
The soccer teams are getting going, the Royals are in first place, and the Chiefs appear to have their best offensive line in years.
Sporting Kansas City has four points from two matches, and Kansas City NWSL had its franchise home debut last night at Children’s Mercy Park.
We’re all adults here. We get that the Royals have 141 games left. The Chiefs still have some holes to fill. The soccer seasons will take wild twists.
But at least at the moment, you don’t need to stretch far to find reasons to invest time and energy into any of our teams.
I’m typing these words while looking out the window at a gorgeous day, too, the weather heating up to spend more time outside and — like you, I’m living that vax life — I can’t help but think about how much better the world is now than a year ago and it just makes me smile, you guys.
We’re really doing it.
I’m over here, still not quite ready to make grand declarations. The Royals’ run differential is +4, and they’ve only played five games against teams with winning records. They’ve won five games scoring three or fewer runs, which is very unusual and — a reasonable person would assume — likely unsustainable.
Danny Duffy will not have a 0.39 ERA the rest of the season, Brad Keller is still wobbling*, Salvador Perez will not finish with 40 home runs, and there are some subtle reasons to worry about the stamina of the pitching staff over 162 games.
* He gave up just two runs in 6 innings against the Tigers on Monday, but he also allowed 10 baserunners and 10 Statcast-defined hard hit balls.
But I also watch the games, and the Royals can make you believe. They play with a lot of energy, they play with an attractive relentlessness, and they’re a good defensive team that’s had some defensive sloppiness that you’d expect will be remembered as rare.
Adalberto Mondesi has not played, and Hunter Dozier and Andrew Benintendi have been unproductive. Mike Matheny is a key piece in establishing some urgency with the group, and they can steal some games if they keep the bullpen bought in on this new usage.
They’ve only played 21 games, we all get that, but 21 games ain’t nothing. There’s some organizational depth that can withstand the inevitable bad surprises of a long season, particularly with pitching.
I still expect the Twins to be better than they’ve been, and the White Sox remain stacked.
Whatever hurdles the Royals have cleared so far are nothing compared to the hurdles that remain.
They’ll have to play better than they’ve played to maintain the record they have, if that makes sense.
But they’re also capable of playing better, and they haven’t shown any reasons to doubt them yet.
I want to make sure I’m not caught in the moment here, but for me this is the best path.
Williams is an objectively better player than Brown. That’s not a debate. Brown would agree. But Williams will turn 33 this summer, and as a free agent would have been making big money right away.
Brown will turn 25 next month, so if he’s a top 10 or 15 left tackle right now there’s reason to believe he has a chance to be in the top five soon. The contract extension he’ll (likely) sign won’t be as big as Williams’, and he’s scheduled for a $3.3 million cap hit this season.
There are different philosophies, and I respect the debate, but for me a line with five good players is going to be better than one with a Hall of Famer and a bum. NFL defenses are smart, and they can attack the weak link.
The consensus opinion is that this draft class is deep with offensive tackles, but the guys expected to be available at No. 31 would be a) risky to trust Week 1, b) inferior to Brown.
My guess is that with truth serum the Chiefs would admit they would have preferred Williams, because otherwise they would not have pursued him so aggressively and then fallen back on what looks like Plan B.
But when you think about age and cost and all the other available options … it just looks like the team that needed a lucky break less than anyone else got the luckiest break it could have imagined.
The numbers I’m about to cite from Pro Football Focus should come with a disclaimer, because blocking for Lamar Jackson is different than blocking for Patrick Mahomes, and the teams have very different systems and emphases, but when we talk about Brown not being as good as someone else let’s also talk about what that means.
It means that in 2020, in 514 pass block snaps, he allowed three sacks and one hit (none of either in 389 pass block snaps at left tackle).
It means that in 2019, in 537 pass block snaps, he allowed three sacks, two hits and was called for three penalties.
It means that in 2018, in 369 pass block snaps, he allowed zero sacks and one hit.
On Friday morning, the Chiefs had no left tackle.
By Friday afternoon, they had a Pro Bowl left tackle, and the best offensive line Patrick Mahomes has played behind.
Mercy.
The answer is at least 60, because I actually think he’d put me down on my face A LOT.
Veach is going to be criticized some for this, and I get it. The Chiefs need to balance the long- and short-term, and trading away first-round picks makes it harder to stay stable.
I think we’d all agree that any price would have been a bargain for the pick that became Mahomes. The Seahawks took L.J. Collier with the 2019 first-round pick they received for Frank Clark, and then used the second-round pick to trade back and select Damien Lewis and Alton Robinson.
Collier is a defensive end with three sacks in 16 starts last year. Lewis ranked 13th among all guards with a 71.2 PFF rating last year (though 89th with a 47.0 pass block rating) and Robinson made four sacks in 14 games last season.
That’s an imperfect way to judge the trade, of course, because the Chiefs likely would have selected different players (better or worse) and a dozen other reasons but it’s at least a vague guide here.
The tendency is to see the strategy as risky, and everything in life is a risk in some ways. But the risk here is the cap, with the extra expenditure made to reduce risk on the field. The Chiefs felt like they knew what Clark would be, because they’d seen it on tape against other NFL players.
The same is true for Brown. Again, we can talk about different systems and all that, but the Chiefs now know Brown can hold up against NFL edge rushers.
For me, if you’re ever going to pay a little extra for certainty, doing it for the guy who is literally protecting Patrick Mahomes’ back is probably the best place to do it.
Well, it’s not ideal. The dream path is the one we’ve seen with Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones, and Tyreek Hill — drafted by the Chiefs, becomes a star with the Chiefs, then becomes rich with the Chiefs.
That’s the way teams get surplus value on the rookie deal, and then when they pay they’re at least doing it with certainty about what that player looks like in their system. Everybody wins.
But there are no perfect rosters, and the old football saying is that you build through the draft and fill holes through free agency. I would argue that’s what the Chiefs have done.
The offense is built around Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill. The defense really shifted when Tyrann Mathieu arrived, so you can argue they built around a free agent there, but Jones is a star and I believe that we’ll soon be saying the same thing about Juan Thornhill.
If Veach is doing anything unusual it’s in the pattern of trading significant draft picks for established veterans. The play is well considered — draft picks can bust, so part of what you’re paying for is certainty.
Frank Clark has not performed up to what the Chiefs spent on him (picks + cap space) but he’s also one of the guys the Chiefs would not have won the Super Bowl without, so you can’t call it a bad deal.
Orlando Brown is a better deal, to me. It’s less draft capital and will end up being less money committed, and Brown is a clear turnkey solution to the team’s biggest problem, which if left unsolved would have directly diminished Mahomes’ talents.
But it’s a wild thing to think that since the Chiefs drafted Mahomes — and we’re assuming they don’t trade WAY up this week — they highest they have picked in the last four drafts is 32nd overall.
That’s a hard way to bring in premium talent, so the case can be made that trades like this are the best path. It’s not perfect, but as long as you’re choosing the right guys to invest in and finding L’Jarius Sneed in the middle rounds of a draft it can work.
The NFL does not want good teams to stay good. The empire was built on parity. The Chiefs have a cheat code in Mahomes, but it’s still going to be harder for them to acquire high-level talent than most other teams because they’re going to be drafting late most years.
They still need to hit on picks, but trading capital for high-level talent seems like a smart workaround, too.
Let’s be as clear as possible: when Adalberto Mondesi is healthy enough to play Major League Baseball games he will be playing shortstop for the Royals.
Lopez’s performance will not change that. If he’s killing it, they’re not delaying Mondesi. If Lopez turns into a pumpkin, they’re not rushing Mondesi back.
Obliques take a long time to heal. Royals trainer Nick Kenney called Mondesi’s a six to eight week injury, which would put his return sometime between the middle and end of May.
There’s not a lot more to it than that. If the Royals are more cautious with Mondesi than they would be with someone else, the motivation would be more about making sure the oblique is 100 percent healed and not just 98 percent.
He’ll have missed somewhere around 40 or 50 games by the time he’s back, and the regular starts and stops aren’t good for his development or the team’s rhythm.
I get that a lot of you are frustrated with Mondesi, and tired of hearing about him. Trust me. I hear you. I get it.
But the minute Mondesi is healthy enough to play again the Royals are a better team.
Now, moving on with more Mondesi …
This is where it gets really interesting. The Royals are obviously invested in Hunter Dozier, but he’s hitting .138/.194/.259. Four weeks ago, the Royals demoted Nicky Lopez, but now he’s hitting .286/.349/.383.
An injury (or a Bobby Witt Jr. call up!) could obviously change this, but at the moment Mondesi’s spot in the lineup is going to come from Lopez or Dozier.
My best guess is that if Lopez is performing and Dozier isn’t then Dozier is the one who will either move out or move around.
But we’re about halfway through Mondesi’s expected recovery time, and my ACTUAL best guess is that Dozier will hit a lot better over the next 20 games than he has for his first 17.
Either way, the Royals would have the type of depth they haven’t had in years. Dozier and Lopez would each be valuable bench pieces, with the ability to cover every position on the field between them.
We’ve talked enough about Veach already, so let me do a few paragraphs on the other two.
I know you’re a smart person because you read only the BEST timesucks, so I don’t have to tell you that Dayton Moore’s specific philosophies are morphing closer to transactional in the last few years.
This is an evolution from a man going on 15 years in the job, which is no small thing. I think you’re going to see more of that, and if John Sherman’s ownership will indeed mean more money to spend it’ll only enhance further.
This isn’t all free agency, of course, but the Royals’ strong start is largely about the offseason — Carlos Santana, Michael A. Taylor, Hanser Alberto, and the pitchers.
There’s a danger in making too much of any particular offseason or moment in time, and here’s a way to make that point. From 2010 or so through 2012, Dayton and the front office were mostly getting crushed but, as it turns out, they were making the decisions that led to 2014 and 2015.
So then from about 2013 or so to 2016, Dayton and the front office were mostly getting flowers but, as it turns out, they were making the decisions that led to 2017-2019.
All that said, I do believe in who Dayton is, and how much he cares. I think the evolution, the learning from mistakes and building on successes … he appears to be embracing all the changes that come with a new owner* and committing himself and front office to be constantly better.
* No small thing, by the way, and I hope to get into that more as the summer goes on.
That’s a pretty good foundation for success.
With Self, he’s operating with advantages that Veach doesn’t have in a league committed to parity and that Moore doesn’t have with a small money club.
With Veach, when he’s desperate for a left tackle and then a left tackle falls into his lap for the equivalent of a mid-second round pick … that’s luck.
With Self, when he’s desperate for a scoring wing and then the No. 1 recruit in the country signs late … that’s part of the benefit of coaching at one of the country’s true basketball powers.
But I’d also point out that Self has been working college basketball’s version of free agency long before the NCAA opened up the transaction wire with immediate eligibility. The example that comes to mind is when he took Malik Newman on a transfer, and then Newman became a critical part of KU’s Final Four push in 2018.
Self has always been — what’s the word here? — helpful in encouraging underperforming players to find other opportunities.
Things are changing in Lawrence now. We all understand that. Every conversation Self has with a potential recruit or transfer has to include tough questions about the NCAA investigation. There is little doubt that the roster is less talented than it otherwise would be because of that.
Nobody will or should feel sorry for Self about that. This is his path, and now he’s doubled down on continuing it.
I don’t know how the NCAA case will conclude. My guess is KU will get significant penalties. But however it goes down, if and when Self is allowed to navigate this new world without the NCAA baggage, my expectation is that he’ll be among the best in the country to fill holes and build through his sport’s growing version of free agency.
They won their season opener on the road, a truly impressive performance in a tough place to play, going down 1-0 and then erasing the deficit in the amount of time it takes to cook a Hot Pocket.
Then they took a draw in their home opener, giving up a pretty sweet back heel goal in the process.
There’s some interesting stuff going on here. Gianluca Busio is playing center forward, and scored the goal against Orlando City on Friday. He could have had more, if we’re honest, but it’s reasonable to expect him to finish more of those chances as he continues to gain comfort with the position and pressure.
Sporting is continuing a big picture transformation, with a collective versatility and IQ that allows it to play against different styles.
Perhaps most importantly, they’re allowing about 7,000 fans in the stands, with expectations of having a full stadium by the summer.
At the risk of repeating myself: we’re really doing it, you guys.
I would argue that the 2019 Chiefs had a superstar AND an all-around solid team with many very good players.
Is that nitpicking?
The 1985 Royals had a league MVP and one of the 30 or so best players of all-time (when he retired). Nobody else on that team is particularly close to the Hall of Fame, even if Frank White and Dan Quisenberry have interesting cases.
The 2019 Chiefs could have five Hall of Famers* with the chance of more**.
* I’m thinking here of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyrann Mathieu, Tyreek Hill and Andy Reid.
** I’m mostly thinking here of Chris Jones.
The 2015 Royals will likely be the rare world champion without a Hall of Famer, unless Sal Perez kills it deep into his 30s. The 1969 Chiefs had eight Hall of Famers, not including founder Lamar Hunt.
I get that this is only one way to look at it, and maybe you could see the same teams in different ways. But for me, I’d rather have a team full of good players than one with a superstar and a bunch of holes.
That’s particularly true in baseball, because you can’t manipulate the lineup to get your best guys more than four or five plate appearances. But I also think it works in football, because an increasing priority on versatility means teams are better equipped to attack your weaknesses.
You know what, the 2020 Chiefs are a pretty good argument here. They got to the Super Bowl because they had a superstar and an otherwise solid roster, and they got wrecked in said Super Bowl because injuries crumbled the offensive line into a major liability.
I feel this in my heart, so I hope it’s true that I treat everything the same in terms of doing the best I can, and figuring out a way to make sure whatever I write is worth your time.
But that absolutely very much does not mean I treat everything the same in terms of approach.
The 2021 Chiefs must be written about differently than the 2012 Chiefs, for instance. There is a different level of levity, of football analysis, of fun, of everything involved.
The 2021 Royals must be written about differently than the 2019 Royals, or the 2015 Royals. I’m not going to crush a bad team for being bad; that’s what we should expect. You find decisions to criticize or praise, you follow the development of key players, and you try to find what’s interesting away from the obvious.
The effort and pride has to always be there, but you have to be able to — baseball analogy alert! — throw different pitches for different situations.
One of the great things about my specific job is that the Royals and Chiefs cannot make it hard for me to do my job. They can limit access if they want, and the Chiefs certainly have. But there are always people outside the building to talk to, and enough inside that you can make it work.
I think what you’re asking is a little more philosophical. The 2012 Chiefs were an abomination, but also an almost endless fountain of column content. The 2019 Royals were an atrocious baseball team, and also pretty uninteresting.
So when you say “easier” … that’s not determined as much by whether the team is successful.
But when you say “fun” … yes, absolutely. I’ve come to think of it like this: if I live to be 200 years old and work until my last breath I’m not sure I’ll ever have more fun working than I did covering the 2014 and 2015 Royals.
Everything was so long coming, and felt like such a communal experience, with an absolutely bonkers string of specific games.
I know we’re in the trust tree, so I know I can tell you that I struggle with this more than I’d like to admit.
That Sunday morning screen time report hits hard some weeks, and as much as I’d like to pretend it’s all productive — navigation! Working out! Reading important stuff! — I don’t want to check how much of it is glassy eyed scrolling on Twitter and Instagram.
I don’t think I’m *terrible* about the phone, but I also don’t want to ask my wife what she thinks about that, and I worry sometimes about the example I’m setting for our kids.
Some of it is legitimate work stuff. Things happen constantly, and if I’m away from my phone I’m away from a text or a call or a tweet that I need to see,
But I also know that without exception the best times of my life are when I’m not thinking about my stupid phone. When I’m just immersed in whatever I’m doing, whether it’s being at the lake or playing catch with the kids or whatever.
Here right now, then, I’m going to promise myself that on Sunday morning my phone is going to tell me that my screen time is down.
Please check back on me and see if I can be trusted.
This week, I’m particularly grateful for my wife. It’s not our anniversary or her birthday or anything, but I’m finding myself more and more aware how great it is to have someone you can laugh with, cry with, talk with, and consistently be respectful with after all these years.
This story was originally published April 27, 2021 at 5:00 AM.