On the Kansas City Chiefs’ offseason through 3 critical questions (plus a bonus 4th)
The revenge deuces are just the start.
When Bucs defensive back Antoine Winfield Jr. crouched in front of Tyreek Hill toward the end of the Super Bowl, two fingers in the air to mock Hill’s trademark move — which Hill flashed to Winfield on a touchdown in Week 12 at Tampa Bay — he spoke for much of the NFL.
The Chiefs spent the last year carrying themselves as a presumptive dynasty. They embraced the expectations, believing they had a rare chance to make history.
They went 16-2 when playing their best players, with both losses against teams they also beat. They played in another Super Bowl, and even with a blowout loss to the Bucs in that game they completed the second-most successful season in the franchise’s last half-century. By any reasonable measure, they had a fantastic season.
But their chosen field does not come with reasonable measures.
Their place in the league means that anything less than a Super Bowl championship is a failure, and now they will replace #RunItBack with a challenge that may be even greater.
Since the perfect 1972 Dolphins, only one team has won the Super Bowl the year after losing it. That’s the Chiefs’ standard now — to be the first team since the 2016-18 Patriots to play in three consecutive Super Bowls, and the first since the 2001-04 Patriots to win two in three seasons.
As the offseason begins, lets map out what will be required for the Chiefs to win another Super Bowl, as well as their greatest challenges. We can do this by answering three basic questions.
1. How will the shrunken salary cap affect the Chiefs?
On Thursday, the NFL told teams the 2021 salary cap would be at least $180 million. That’s down significantly from $198.2 million in 2020, and up slightly from the previously agreed-upon minimum of $175 million.
The cap could end up rising again, and obviously all teams are operating under the same rules ... but the Chiefs are being squeezed more than most. Before the pandemic wrecked revenues in 2020, teams could have expected the 2021 cap to be around $210 million.
The Chiefs are currently $18 million over the cap, according to Spotrac, and slightly more than that according to the NFLPA’s public report. It’s important to remember these numbers are not exact, as they often rely on estimates of bonuses and incentives.
The Chiefs will have to shed some money — more on that soon — but could be in position to find values in free agency. That’s because all teams will have less money, and many free agents could be looking for one-year deals to hit the market again when (hopefully!) the cap increases as the world opens up.
If that’s the case, it would make sense for free agents to see the Chiefs as an attractive spot to showcase their talents. But with so much money tied into star players already, the Chiefs will have less money to spend than most other teams.
2. So how do they get under the cap?
This is where the Chiefs’ front office, led by general manager Brett Veach, will have to be creative.
Starting tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are due for a combined cap hit of $25.1 million. Assuming a normal recovery from a ruptured Achilles, Fisher would not be available until late in the 2021 season. Schwartz missed his last 14 weeks with a back injury, and his recent Instagram post was vague and noncommittal about 2021.
The Chiefs will need some time to figure out where they are at tackle, but Fisher is scheduled for a $15.2 million cap hit and Schwartz counts for another $10 million. Contracts for both players expire after 2021.
The squeeze on the cap probably means the Chiefs won’t re-sign free agents Sammy Watkins, Bashaud Breeland and Alex Okafor, among others.
One tool the Chiefs gave themselves for situations like this can be found in the structure of Patrick Mahomes’ contract. It is counterintuitive to believe the largest contract in American sports is team-friendly, but in addition to digestible annual salaries, the deal’s year-to-year cap hits are effectively made malleable.
The Chiefs can also create space by extending their contract with star safety Tyrann Mathieu, who is scheduled for a $19.7 million cap hit in the final year of his current deal.
There are a lot of moving parts here, obviously, but — especially if the world gets closer to normal for the 2021 season — the Chiefs can delay some of their most pressing financial challenges.
3. OK, so if the Chiefs can create some space, what will they do with it?
Their offensive line is the top priority, by far. If the Chiefs can fix the line, they will be the logical Super Bowl favorites. If they can’t, then we’re going to see more games like the last Super Bowl, with Mahomes pressured constantly and hit often.
The stakes are enormous.
Again: Figuring out the tackles will take time. The Chiefs’ general strategy has been to invest heavily in tackles, trust them on islands and make it work on the inside. It’s a sound strategy that generally provided above-average protection with Fisher and Schwartz healthy, but everything needs to be reconsidered now.
The Chiefs will likely try to re-sign Keleche Osemele, Austin Reiter and Mike Remmers. Assuming Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and Lucas Niang play after opting out of the 2020 season, that’s enough talent and bodies to make something work.
Which only increases the focus on the tackles. Trent Williams, Taylor Motion and Alejandro Villanueva headline the field of potential free agents. Again, the Chiefs will form their strategy as they gather more information on the futures of Fisher and Schwartz. Daryl Williams played well in Buffalo last season and is an interesting name to watch here, and not just because the Chiefs collect D. Williamses.
The Chiefs, like all teams, must walk and chew gum, so along with the line they will target an edge rusher and receiver. They could also use a cornerback, particularly if Breeland leaves through free agency.
Which leads us to our final question.
Tackle, edge rush, receiver. So what’s the best path to address those priorities?
The Chiefs’ needs line up well with this draft class’s deepest positions: wide receiver, edge rusher and tackle.
The depth of receivers available this spring is particularly helpful for the Chiefs, because NFL teams have proven they can find production at that position after the first day of the draft.
If the Chiefs are able to sign a veteran tackle in free agency, they could feel free to target the best edge rusher with the 31st overall pick. Edge rushers Carlos Basham of Wake Forest and Gregory Rousseau of Miami, and tackles Alex Leatherwood of Alabama and Liam Eichenberg of Notre Dame, are among the names showing up for the Chiefs in some early mock drafts.
Another interesting name is Alabama’s Landon Dickerson, widely regarded as the draft’s best interior lineman but currently rehabbing a torn ACL.
An edge rusher might be a particularly good fit this year, with Frank Clark’s contract in play for a restructure or cut after next season. The Chiefs will also look for edge rushers in the middle class of free agency, the way they’ve done with Okafor and Emmanuel Ogbah in recent years. The middle class of free agents are likely to be the ones most suffering from a lower cap, by the way.
We realize we’re into the weeds here. The Chiefs have specific and significant concerns that are exacerbated by the shrunken cap, but in the big picture they remain in a strong position: Mahomes and Andy Reid, partnered with a core group of stars and support, with a championship pedigree and relative youth on their side.
They must figure out who will play tackle, they must find more ways to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and their general philosophy of doing everything possible to support Mahomes will lead them to add a receiver or two.
Losing the Super Bowl raises the stakes, and the diminished cap raises the degree of difficulty. But nobody will care about that, or feel sorry for a group that still believes it can be the NFL’s next dynasty. Achieving that goal will depend largely on the front office’s ability to manage another bizarre offseason.
This story was originally published February 19, 2021 at 5:00 AM.