Mellinger Minutes: judging the Steelers, why Mahomes is better than ever, and the bye
One of the most anticipated games of the NFL season was not broadcast in Kansas City, because Ravens-Steelers kicked off simultaneously with Chiefs-Jets and CBS had both games. That’s too bad, because ranking the AFC’s top three teams would be some order of Chiefs, Steelers and Ravens.
But, in yet another example of the personal sacrifices I make for you, I have watched the Steelers’ 28-24 win over the Ravens. The following is my report, made through the lens of how these teams match up with the Chiefs.
The way the Steelers would beat the Chiefs is to not just win the line of scrimmage, but to clearly win it.
That could be said about a lot of matchups, but it would be particularly true for the Chiefs against the Steelers.
They protect Roethlisberger well. The Steelers rank fourth in pass blocking according to Football Outsiders, and they’re eighth in pressure percentage surrendered.
Roethlisberger can still make all the throws and get what’s schemed for him, but he’s not the same athlete. He’s still big and strong, but he’s a bit of a stationary target for the pass rush. If the Chiefs’ front could produce pressure, they’d have a significant advantage.
The matchup of the Chiefs’ offense and the Steelers’ defense would be fascinating, and likely where they game would turn.
The Steelers blitz 39 percent of the time, according to Pro Football Reference. That’s third in the league. But we know what Patrick Mahomes does to blitzes. We saw what he did to the Ravens (one of the teams that blitz more often than the Steelers).
His numbers against blitzes are silly: 71.6 completion percentage for 650 yards (9.7 per attempt), eight touchdowns and no interceptions, according to Pro Football Focus. His passer rating is 141.8.
If I was the Steelers, I’d try to figure out another way. Normally I believe in sticking to what you do best, but this is an exception. The Steelers did a good job of pressuring and confusing Lamar Jackson, and he didn’t handle it well: 13 of 28 passing for 208 yards. He threw a pick-6, and another interception in the red zone.
But that’s not a strategy that’s going to work against Mahomes.
The Steelers have a great front four: T.J. Watt, Stephon Tuitt, Bud Dupree and Cam Heyward. I wonder if they’ll try to get pressure with those four using stunts and other tricks, and allow a capable back seven to maximize coverage.
My assumption is that the Steelers would generally prioritize eliminating big plays, forcing the Chiefs to run as many snaps as possible. This would give a strong, smart, and aggressive group that’s second in takeaways a lot of shots at creating big swings.
The problem there is that the Chiefs are so good at protecting the ball — just five turnovers all season, and so far no games with more than one.
The Steelers prioritize pressure. They’ve created it on 35 percent of opponents’ drop backs, by far the most in the league. If they back off the blitzes a bit it’ll be up to the Chiefs’ offensive line to give the receivers enough time to get open against more coverage, and for Mahomes to get them the ball.
If we look at a potential rematch with the Ravens, I’m not sure there’s anything new to be taken from the Steelers game.
I still think the Ravens’ best shot is to stay with the run. They got away from it in Week 3 for some reason, but the Steelers have a top five run defense and gave up 265 (5.6 y/c) against the Ravens.
The Chiefs’ biggest advantage would likely be their skill position speed against the Ravens’ secondary. We saw that play out in Week 3, and the Chiefs would likely try to do it again.
Lamar Jackson might be the most dynamic player in the league. He’s an improved passer and possesses speed and shake that are borderline unfair, particularly on scrambles.
But you can’t help but wonder if this big game thing is more than a talk show narrative. We know what he’s done in the playoffs, and this season he’s played his worst two games against the two opponents he knows he’ll have to beat in the playoffs.
So, that’s what it looks like at the moment, anyway. The Steelers can beat the Chiefs if they turn it over on defense, and protect Roethlisberger enough on offense. The Ravens can beat the Chiefs if Jackson plays like a star, they stick to the run, and figure out a way to contain the speed of the Chiefs’ offense.
But I still think the Chiefs are better than both.
This week’s eating recommendation is the chicken broth soup (clear noodles) from Vietnam Cafe and the reading recommendation is Michael Rosenberg on Bryson DeChambeau breaking golf.
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You know that Patrick Mahomes won the MVP in his first year as a starter and the Super Bowl in his second. I am here to tell you that he is playing better than ever.
Some of this I can do with statistics. He is on pace for 4,630 yards, 42 touchdown passes, two interceptions, 330 yards rushing with four more touchdowns. He’s scrambled for 10 first downs, including seven on third downs. He’s a His 86.8 QBR leads the league and is six points higher than his MVP season. Football Outsiders’ metrics rate him as the game’s best quarterback.
Here’s one. Mahomes’ 46 would tie Drew Brees’ 2011 season as the sixth-most all-time. Quarterbacks have thrown 40 or more touchdowns in a season just 13 times, and averaged 13 interceptions in those seasons. The lowest interception total was Aaron Rodgers’ six in 2011, and the lowest interception percentage was Rodgers’ 1.15 in 2016.
Mahomes is on pace for two interceptions, and his 0.4 interception rate is the lowest in the league.
The most touchdown passes by a quarterback with two or fewer interceptions is 28, by Tom Brady in 2016. Actually, if Mahomes just quit football right now his 21 touchdown passes would be the fourth-most by a quarterback with two or fewer interceptions, and the most by a quarterback with one or fewer interceptions.
Now, Mahomes will almost certainly throw more than two interceptions this season. But we’ve seen enough to know that he is shifting his risk-reward calculus more toward safety.
Some of that is the faith he has in the Chiefs’ defense, which was among the worst in the league in 2018 and now generally grades out as average to above average in various metrics*.
* They’re third in points surrendered, and the NFL’s only team to keep seven opponents to 20 points or fewer.
But some of it, too, is a diligent and smart student better understanding coverages and exactly where the line is between aggressive and reckless.
You can see that selective aggressiveness in numbers, too. His touchdown rate, passer rating, yard per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt are all highest on third down.
This is a bit like Why Don’t They Make The Whole Plane Out Of The Black Box, but if Mahomes performed every down like he is third down right now he would the greatest quarterback in NFL history: 67 percent completions, 9.1 yards per attempt and a 135.6 passer rating. My friend Seth Keysor wrote more about Mahomes on third down here.
Here it’s worth noting that the only interception he’s thrown this season came on fourth down when the Chiefs trailed by nine points late in the fourth quarter, so the risk-reward calculus shifted, and even then Travis Kelce took the blame for running the wrong route.
All of that is true and he’s still doing things like this:
He is, basically, a jet pack with a five-star safety rating.
So, anyway, I’ll answer your question by saying the following sentence will be true:
No quarterback in NFL history will have thrown for more touchdowns and fewer interceptions than the 2020 version of Patrick Mahomes.
I didn’t notice that. The Jets managed just 221 yards of offense, which is the second lowest total by a Chiefs opponent this season (Bills) so if it was vanilla it was vanilla because that’s what was working.
The Chiefs blitzed on 15 of Sam Darnold’s 35 drop backs and pressured him 10 times, according to Pro Football Focus.
One of my takeaways from the game was actually the opposite of yours. I was struck by how seriously the Chiefs took the Jets, both in terms of energy and game plan.
We’ve seen the Chiefs coast a bit with big leads before, but after halftime they scored touchdowns on two of Mahomes’ five drives, and another ended when they failed on a 4th and 1. That’s pretty aggressive.
The point of the game column is one I’ve made before about this team, and they keep proving me right.
They’re not playing against the opponent. They’re playing against themselves.
The coaches have talked about complacency enough that we know that’s a genuine concern of theirs. There are elements of games against the Chargers, Patriots and Raiders where you could wonder about the team’s focus, but this is three weeks in a row now where they’ve operated efficiently and cleanly against varying levels of inferior opponents.
The Chiefs will always be judged more by their performances against the Ravens and Bucs this season than the Jets and Broncos, but the best way to produce the best version of themselves in the important games involves getting the most out of these games.
/Terez voice/
One MIIIILLLLL-yun percent.
/End Terez voice/
Mahomes changed everything. He makes the coaches better, his teammates better, the marketing staff better, the business folks, everybody. He makes the local sports columnists better.
Sometimes I wonder if the order in how this all came about matters. What I mean is that Mahomes joined a good team. The Chiefs won the division the year before he arrived, and did it again the year he sat behind Alex Smith.
The Chiefs had most of the infrastructure already in place. They had good coaches. They had talented players. They had a plan, and belief. They just didn’t have a lot of margin for error.
Mahomes is that margin.
Just think about the playoff games. What is the mood on that sideline with the Chiefs’ playoff history when Tyreek Hill muffs the punt or Travis Kelce is dropping passes wide open? What’s everybody thinking when the Titans are up 10?
I’m not here to say Jimmy Garoppolo would’ve hit Emmanuel Sanders deep in the Super Bowl if Mahomes wasn’t the Chiefs’ quarterback, but I’d understand if you believed that, and either way feel fairly confident that Mahomes would’ve still led the game winning drive after that.
He just makes things easier, and funner.
Speaking of the importance of Mahomes...
... and ...
So, yeah. This was a popular sentiment, and I’m laughing as I’m typing this because I actually had the exact same thought watching live.
Mahomes should have the franchise on his back ONLY IN THE METAPHORICAL SENSE.
He should by outside his cryo chamber only to eat healthy meals, practice or workout under strict supervision, and play amazing football that does not include any celebration more strenuous than a muscle flex or fadeaway jumper.
These are the rules.
If he doesn’t like them, he should be less awesome at football.
The Chiefs were tied for seventh with 48 penalties entering the Monday Night game (Tampa was two behind at 46).
Penalties tend to be equating to quality of coaching, but that’s not always true. The Ravens, Saints, Bills and 49ers are among the other teams in the top half of the league so far. Two years ago, the Chiefs were the league’s most penalized team.
Not all penalties are equal, too. You don’t want unsportsmanlike conduct penalties (like Travis Kelce’s celebration, which we’ll get to in a minute) but you have more patience for holding or other penalties that happen with the speed and power of NFL games.
The Chiefs have been called for 13 false starts, which is too many. Only the Bengals have more. The Chiefs have a lot of motion and Mahomes has gone to hard counts more often this season to draw the opponent offsides, but still. That’s an area for improvement.
According to awesome Stathead feature on Pro Football Reference, only five of the Chiefs’ penalties on offense have been on third down and six on defense. I don’t know if that sounds like a lot to you or not, but the Chiefs’ opponents have also been called for 11 penalties on third downs.
Here’s where I’m at on the Chiefs’ penalties: You want to avoid the self-inflicted and major ones as much as possible, but also understand you don’t want to play too cautious.
It’s a good question, and obviously important. I do believe the Chiefs have one of the better defensive fronts in the NFL, and that’s backed up by them ranking fourth in pressure percentage.
The Raiders game is often used as the example of what happens when the Chiefs don’t get pressure, and the numbers are astounding: Derek Carr had an 88.7 passer rating when pressured, and 138.4 when not.
So, yes. The Chiefs will prioritize pressure, and they should be able to do as well as any Steelers opponent.
But there will be many more snaps without pressure than there will be snaps with pressure, and the coverage needs to less dependent on what the guys up front do.
That means Charvarius Ward getting out of his self-described slump and doing a better job finding the ball. That means more of Tyrann Mathieu’s brain creating big plays. That means the linebackers doing a better job on tight ends (Eric Ebron is second on the Steelers in catches) and running backs.
We’re pretty far into the weeds at this point, but I’d be particularly interested in the impact L’Jarius Sneed and Willie Gay would have against the Steelers.
The Chiefs’ secondary has missed Sneed’s speed, and Gay could be an interesting counter to Ebron. Gay’s snap counts in the last four games are worth noting: 33, three, 39 and nine.
He’s involved more in sub packages, so some of this is dictated by the opponent, but I’m still expecting Gay to work his way into more snaps in the base defense. His talent could be effective against some of the better teams the Chiefs will face.
The answer for the Chiefs depends on health. If they’re operating at close to full health, the extra game shouldn’t be a deal breaker. The Chiefs should feel like they have the best team. They don’t need shortcuts here.
But the other part of the answer is that NFL teams are rarely operating at close to full health by the first week of the postseason.
The Chiefs had a lot break their way last year, and toward the top of the list was Ryan Fitzpatrick beating the Patriots, giving the Chiefs a first-round bye.
Mahomes had been visibly slow with various injuries, and Frank Clark was less than himself. Both were noticeably more dynamic after the week off. I’m not sure the Chiefs could’ve won those three games with anything less.
So, I guess the answer is that the No. 1 seed is something more than significant but less than critical.
The Chiefs’ remaining strength of schedule ranks 17th, and the Steelers rank 27th. The Bucs, Saints, Raiders and Dolphins are the Chiefs’ opponents with winning records. The Steelers have Bills, Ravens, Colts and Browns.
I didn’t mention this in the top, but there’s something about this Steelers team that looks like a short slump might be coming. Roethlisberger is still good, but he’s not quite what he was. Their offense relies a lot of protection, and confusing coverages. It’s not a group with all the answers.
This is not calling the Steelers a fraud, or even that they’ll finish 10-6. But I am saying you shouldn’t be surprised if they have two or three or even more losses left.
Remember, the Steelers’ bye got burned in Week 4 because the Titans went stupid. Four of the Steelers’ last six games are against teams with winning records. When they play in Cleveland on Week 17, they will be going on three months without a break.
That’s a lot. That’s the stuff of late season fades.
The problem for the Chiefs is that it’s not just about the Steelers. Six teams in the AFC have two or fewer losses.
Basically, yes. The league never made a new rule specifically banning the dunk, but changed its view of props to include the crossbar for the 2014 season.
I know some people have made the connection of it coming the year after Tony Gonzalez retired, but the more logical motivation was that Jimmy Graham knocked a crossbar offline with a dunk during the 2013 season.
Can you imagine being the team that missed an important kick because someone dunked a non-basketball over a non-rim?
You’d be furious.
As for Hill, there was a quick moment after he jumped into the stands that he appeared to look at the TV camera. You probably remember two years ago when he took over the camera and pointed it at his teammates, just in time to also see the penalty flag.
But my understanding is that the penalty was for using the camera as a prop, not for jumping into the stands. The league allows one player to go up, but the spirit of that rule was basically to keep the Lambeau Leap happening. Not to just make yourself comfortable up there and start walking toward fans.
So, that’s a gray area for me. But he ended up giving the ball to a little kid. I know I’m a little extreme on this, and would allow literally any celebration that did not violate federal law, but I don’t want a league penalizing a kid’s day being made.
Losing the West Virginia isn’t the problem. The Mountaineers are now 4-2, strong on both sides of the ball.
The problem is getting blow’d out like that, getting down 24-3 at one point and never making it competitive.
That’s the surprising part, and out of character for what I think Chris Klieman’s program is.
The problem now is that K-State is hitting the hardest part of its schedule: Oklahoma State this week, at Iowa State after a bye, then at Baylor and home against Texas.
Each of those games is winnable. Each is also losable. The Big 12 has always been better in the middle than at the top, and those can be some rough waters.
But, guys. Come on. K-State is 4-1 in the league, one of three teams with one loss at the top of the standings. Oklahoma State has more raw talent than K-State, but we’re not acting like this is a mismatch, are we?
But, sure. I get the bad feelings that can present themselves right now. The difference between K-State finishing 8-2 and 4-6 doesn’t have to be a lot.
To me, this is more a civic pride thing than anything specific about a team. And these numbers almost always say more about the fans than the team.
I have my own and obvious professional bias here, but I love that Kansas City routinely outperforms other markets with TV ratings for sports. I think it shows how much we care, collectively, and that this city’s sports passion is more than bandwagon or casual fans.
For a lot of fans, there’s a boost that comes from following a team you know others love as much as you do. For others, it doesn’t matter. I get both, but personally enjoy seeing big numbers from Kansas City, no matter the sport.
One small nit to pick: the ratings don’t do much for payroll. The TV revenue is locked in. The Royals don’t get more money if they have high ratings one season, or less if they don’t.
One of the great educations I received in following the Royals’ last negotiation was that networks don’t pay as much of a premium as I expected based on ratings. They’re more interested in TV households, figuring that a higher ceiling of potential viewers is better than a more stable floor of a locked in audience.
I’ve been to baseball games with no fans. But not the NFL.
I want to be clear up front here that we’re all obviously frustrated by crowd limitations, and more to the point wish like hell that we weren’t in a pandemic that’s causing those limitations. We all want games to be how they were again.
That said, I’m enough of a nerd that I enjoyed the silent games as a sort of novelty. Even beyond the superficial enjoyment of finally having sports again, you can hear all sorts of things that are muted by crowds.
You can hear a pitcher grunting with every fastball, or the chatter between infielders on a pop fly, or (my favorite) the dugout heckling toward the umpires. You can hear a player sliding into second base, hundreds of feet away. It’s pretty cool, actually.
Again: as a novelty only, and I know this because I was lucky enough to go to Sporting’s first game with fans in August. I was completely unprepared for how spontaneous crowd noise made me feel. Literally: goosebumps on my arms, and a tingle down my spine. The same thing was true for the Chiefs’ opener against the Texans.
There’s a broader metaphor in there, now that I’m thinking about this. Because I know I’m not the only one who’s found little bursts of unexpected joy these last eight months. We’ve been enjoying our house more, I loved being able to see our kids learn up close, and we spent more time and had more fun outside this year than ever before.
This is acknowledging the obvious, but I’ve been extremely lucky in that way. We’ve had to isolate after potential exposures, but we’ve remained healthy. Too many families can’t say the same.
There’s another factor at play here that I don’t hear many people talk about. Our individual ability to navigate distancing and everything else is highly dependent on our specific personalities.
I’m more introverted than my wife, for instance. I’m content spending all my free time with my family, at home, with some driveway beers with neighbors mixed in. My wife likes to go out. She likes to dress up. She loves three hour dinners and drinks with friends. I enjoy those things, too, but she misses them more than I do.
I was, in some ways outside of my control, built to more happily navigate time with limited social interaction. I want to keep in mind that many others are on the opposite side. We all see things differently, and feel things differently.
I am a million miles off the path on this answer so I’ll just go ahead and end with this. When there’s a vaccine, and we can be in crowds again, I’m going to sit in the bleachers at Kauffman Stadium or stand for a concert at Grinders and love every nanosecond of uncomfortable mismanagement of personal space.
This week, I’m particularly grateful for the time change. Man, it was getting really hard to get out of bed in that darkness, and even harder to get the kids out of bed for school.