Mellinger Minutes: New Chiefs are Chief’n, what matters with Royals, and college hoops
The Chiefs need cap space like few other teams in football, and like no other time in their history and, oh, hey, what’s that? A feeling in the league that the salary cap could make a major hike in 2021?
It’s all coming up Chiefs. Again.
For years and years I used to (half) joke that you never knew when the Chiefs would Chief, but you always knew that eventually they would Chief.
That was borne from losing home playoff games without punting and without giving up a touchdown and when the opposing quarterback throws a touchdown to himself and a hundred other darkly comedic tragedies that became part of the background noise of being a Chiefs fan.
It’s still true that the Chiefs will Chief, but basically since the moment Patrick Mahomes became QB1, the definition of Chief’n has dramatically changed.
Now, the definition of Chief’n is that they can lose to the Titans, but see that turned into a positive because it means they’re able to take Terrell Suggs on waivers and still get a first-round bye because Ryan Fitzpatrick won in Foxborough and still have the AFC Championship Game at home because Ryan Tannehill won in Baltimore.
It means Mahomes suffering what looked like a devastating knee injury ... and missing zero practices and two games. It means finding a cornerback so good he’ll soon need a contract extension in a trade for a backup lineman who’s since played two games.
It means, basically, a franchise that used to wear every bad break is now taking every good break with the notable exception of where Dee Ford lined up on that one play which, it should be emphasized, happened with Patrick Mahomes on the sideline.
Now, it would seem that there is a real possibility that in the moment the Chiefs are stretched for cap space and (justifiably) want to keep a relatively young roster together to win another Super Bowl, they might have a sweet little stash of extra money to spend.
We’ll get into this more below and, yes, the other 31 teams will have the same space. If Chris Jones wants to play extra hardball, he can build in the extra space to whatever contract he asks for (and I hope he gets it plus 10 percent).
But with a bigger jump than the $10 million or so we’ve been used to, the Chiefs would have a better chance of making Mahomes the (deserved) highest-paid player in league history and retaining a critical part of a much-improved defense.
It’s a lucky break of timing for a team that is following decades of stubborn bad luck with a legendary hot streak that has them with not just a Super Bowl championship and a 24-year-old MVP quarterback but a roster of support that should keep them a contender for years to come.
This week’s eating recommendation is the chicken at POI-O and the reading recommendation is David Fleming putting combine QB hand size in its proper place.
Please give me a follow on Twitter and Facebook and as always, thanks for your help and thanks for reading.
According to this the pros in Vegas have the Royals at 64 1/2 wins, which would be a 5 1/2-game improvement and feels a little low to me.
This feels like a 68-94 or so season, though I suppose I should acknowledge I figured last year’s team would end up around 65-97 or so, which means at least two things:
1. I’ve overestimated them in the past and ...
2. we’re splitting hairs between bad and slightly badder.
The Royals led the league in blown leads and were a staggeringly incompetent 5-16 when *TIED* after seven innings. Also, their Pythag record was 64-98, so these are pretty strong indications that the Royals were less terrible than their very terrible 59-103 record last year.
They have a new manager and camp legitimately feels fresher than the last few years so, and whatever it’s worth, these are positive signs.
You asked about the rotation. The first four spots are locked in: Brad Keller, Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis and Mike Montgomery, probably in that order.
After that it’s a whole lot of hoping. The Royals occasionally used an opener in Class AAA Omaha last season and have discussed doing it in Kansas City this season. Josh Staumont and Kyle Zimmer would profile well as openers, though at that point I’m not sure we’re really talking about the starting rotation. Eric Skoglund will continue to get a look as a starter, but he’d have to be considered a longshot.
The more interesting and consequential issue is who will be in the rotation at the end of the season. The Royals shut down Keller after 28 starts and 165 1/3 innings last year, and Danny Duffy has averaged 25 starts over the last (healthy) six seasons. Junis is a borderline starter on a championship team, if we’re honest, and Montgomery is a middle reliever.
They need depth, is what I’m saying. Which means it’s a good time for this next question...
Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, and Daniel Lynch are among the sport’s most promising minor-league starting pitching prospects. That 2018 draft was seen as critical in real time, and the Royals went against modern conventional wisdom by betting each of their first five picks on college starting pitchers, which are among the sport’s most notorious heartbreakers and ...
Damned if it doesn’t look like they nailed it.
You can ask three different scouts and you might get three different answers on which of those guys is the best. They each have a promising mix of floor and ceiling, of stuff and makeup, and I’ll just stop this sentence now before including any more 50 grade scout speak.
If none of those guys are in the big leagues by the All-Star break something went wrong and, bad news, it was probably an injury.
If I’m handicapping right now, I’d put Singer as the First Man Up, and set June 1 as the over-under. Kowar could be right behind, and Lynch’s timeline is going to depend on factors out of his control.
We talked about this some last week, but the Royals often transition minor-league starting pitchers to big-league bullpens. They’re far from the only team to believe in the method, but it gained traction with Zack Greinke’s return first to the bullpen in 2007 and then full time to the rotation the next season (and then the Cy Young award the season after that).
Lynch might be the exception. The Royals see him as a starter, and for factors that include his longer-than-most warmup time they think his best chance at success might be transitioning as a starter.
Maybe that means his debut happens earlier, particularly with how thin the big-league rotation is, but it also might mean his timeline is pushed back a bit.
Either way, I’d expect at least two pitchers from that 2018 draft class to debut this summer. If it’s only one, it’s at least a mild disappointment. If it’s more, then we’re going to have a better view of the Royals’ future.
Which means it’s a good time for this next question ...
I think I know where you’re coming from, but *Eric Bieniemy voice* I will say this:
The wins and losses do matter.
If the Royals lose 103 games again, it means that a lot went wrong, and it means that a general manager will have overseen three straight 100-loss seasons and will be a year into having a new boss and I’m just not sure that’s a great way to have job security.
There is some nuance here, so I hope I get this right.
When the Royals talk about being done with the word rebuild, the players genuinely mean it, but professional athletes often become professional athletes with a sort of productive delusion. They think they can do things that are unrealistic, and sometimes they’re right.
But I think when the coaches and executives think about that, they’re well aware they’re still in a rebuild, but they do want more of an emphasis put on wins and losses. Not because they believe 68 wins will be objectively better than 67 but because they believe the only way to win is, well, to win — or, put another way, it’s to care about winning.
They believe — and in some cases have for a few years now — that the atmosphere around the big-league club has been too ... forgiving? Accepting? That’s part of the appeal of Mike Matheny as the new manager.
The Royals, as an organization, believe the final record does matter this year. It will be a major — not the only, but a major — tool in measuring success or failure this season.
So, anyway, I know I’m answering a version of your question in a way you probably didn’t intend. Because I think you probably don’t care what the record is, at least in broad strokes, and I think we probably agree that there are scenarios that could lead to a 63-win season that would be more encouraging long-term than other scenarios that could lead to a 66-win season, and so on.
Answering the question I believe you’re intending, you can measure success in at least these ways.
A list? A list!
- Did Adalberto Mondesi stay healthy and productive?
- Is Hunter Dozier for real?
- Did Jorge Soler sign a long-term extension and, whether he did or not, did he play like he deserved one?
- How many from the 2018 draft class debuted in the big leagues, and did they look like they belonged against big-league hitters?
- Did Jakob Junis develop another pitch (probably the curveball) to complement his top-shelf slider?
- They have a boatload of guys vying for bullpen roles ... how many of them look like long-term big-leaguers? Extra points if the answer includes Kyle Zimmer and Josh Staumont.
- Did Ryan O’Hean live up to the love he’s received from Matheny and others in the organization this spring?
- Foes it look like the Royals have a real center fielder, instead of forcing the supremely talented but natural second baseman Whit Merrifield there?
- Is Danny Duffy a starter again, a reliever finally, or a regrettable contract?
- Does it look like Matheny has the juice, and has genuinely adjusted and self-improved from what went wrong in St. Louis?
That’s 10. If the Royals get five yes answers here they probably had a good year, no matter their record.
Then again, if they get five yes answers, their record is probably pretty good.
The Royals don’t talk about this publicly, but they’ve been open to trading all of those guys, particularly Merrifield and Duffy. They have not found value in return.
I’ve been surprised, at least with Merrifield. He’s older than you’d like (turned 31 in January) but he has three big-league seasons and all three are bangers — adjusted OPS 13 percent above league average, led the league in steals twice, hits twice and triples once while showing incredible positional versatility and above-average defense at a time when those skills are valued more than ever before.
But, alas, if good deals aren’t there to be made they shouldn’t be replaced with bad deals.
I’ve long thought that Soler is an awkward fit for the Royals, and that he’d be more valuable to a team that plays in a smaller ballpark and values home runs more and defense less than the Royals do.
Trade deadlines can turn sane front offices crazy, and you never know how immediate needs will affect what contenders are willing to pay. It could mean no market, it could mean a hot market.
The Royals will have to wait to see.
Both teams are realistic national championship contenders.
I know I’m probably biased by the fact that I’ve watched them more than any other teams, and this isn’t a #hottaek because they’re both top 3 teams, but I believe Kansas and Baylor are the best two teams in the country.
It appears widely accepted around the sport that college basketball is down a bit, and that’s most easily illustrated by the lack of lottery picks on top-shelf teams.
In that reality, Kansas and Baylor are particularly well positioned to shine.
Both have experience, both defend like dogs and both have multiple ways to win.
Baylor is deep with guards, with a nice mix of size. The Bears play hard, they play well together, they’re smart and well-coached, boasting everything you’d want outside of a consensus All-America player.
Kansas is the best defensive team in the country (Baylor might be second), with a national player of the year candidate at point guard and a unique rim protector who will make some first-team All-America teams. The Jayhawks can be inconsistent offensively but have enough strengths to make their way through an off-shooting night.
I keep going back to this: Kansas hit just 3 of 13 three-pointers and attempted just 10 free throws and still beat Baylor, on the road. That’s as impressive a win as you can find.
Now, there are always more Final Four contenders than Final Four spots available, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see either or both Kansas and Baylor lose early. That might be especially true this year, with such a wide-open field.
But it also wouldn’t be shocking to see them play each other in the Final Four, perhaps even the national championship game.
This is such a great sports conversation because there is no right or wrong answer, there are plenty of points to be made on each side, and it’s really not that important either way.
Indianapolis is less than an 8-hour drive from Lawrence (7 hours, 15 minutes from downtown Kansas City) and a short drive from an enormous fan base in Chicago.
Houston is a longer drive (around 11 hours) but an easy flight and driveable from Dallas. Both are fine American cities.
My hope is that Kansas would choose Indianapolis because I’d probably drive there and fly to Houston, and I like the flexibility and ability to drive up to Chicago for the Royals’ season opener.
But if I was Kansas I’m not so sure I wouldn’t choose Houston. If you’re in Indy, you risk sharing a regional with some combination of Dayton, Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland and Michigan — all top 15 KenPom teams, all reasonable drives to Indy.
Baylor and Houston are the only top 20 teams close to Houston, and Baylor would be in a different region.
I want to emphasize: I really don’t think this matters much.
If Self chose Indy and said it was because it was a shorter drive, or that his guys like the shooting background there better, or that he just wants some of that St. Elmo’s cocktail sauce, I’m not going to have a strong opinion.
But Houston might give Kansas the largest share of the building, however much that matters.
First, please allow me a little detour here in saying that I don’t believe the offensive line is weak. Football Outsiders had the Chiefs No. 4 in pass protection and Pro Football Focus had them No. 7. Using PFF’s numbers, 24 quarterbacks faced more pressured dropbacks than Patrick Mahomes.
I think most of us would agree they were below average in run blocking, particularly in the middle (which might be what you’re referring to here). But with how the team is built and where the league is going I’m not sure it’s accurate to say the line is a weakness.
Anyway.
The Chiefs are a relatively young team that just won the Super Bowl. My default setting would be to keep as much of the team together as possible, and to enhance strengths where possible.
I would not be surprised at all to see the Chiefs take a running back early, for instance.
There was a time (not that long ago) the Chiefs wanted to improve their tight end group, but that’s less of a priority now if they retain so many dangerous receivers.
Defensive back might be the most interesting position group of the offseason for me. You’ve heard me say this before, but the Chiefs went from perhaps the league’s worst pair of safeties in 2018 to perhaps the best in 2019. Juan Thornhill’s timetable on recovering from an ACL tear has to be considered here.
Also, Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller are each free agents. Charvarius Ward is eligible for an extension. That’s a sizable chunk of a pretty damn good secondary with significant short-term questions.
We might be burying the important stuff here, though. Assuming the Chiefs can retain a good secondary, and assuming Patrick Mahomes gets his contract extension, the biggest question (by far) is whether the Chiefs will retain Chris Jones.
They control him for 2020, assuming he signs their franchise tag, but I’m not sure the Chiefs want to go down that road without a long-term deal in place and I’m not sure Jones will accept anything less than what he believes to be his full value.
Let me restate that: I am sure that Jones won’t accept anything less than what he believes to be his full value.
The Chiefs will have an opening here. If the salary cap makes a major jump in 2021, the Chiefs could give Jones a truckload of cash without torpedoing their ability to field a representative roster.
There are a lot of factors involved, of course. The Chiefs would be one of 32 teams with extra cap space, and Jones and his agent know that. But the Chiefs can control whether Jones gets that cash now or next year.
* Technically they could retain him with ANOTHER franchise tag in 2021, but at this point I don’t know anyone who believes that’s likely.
In other words, with a significantly bigger salary cap in 2021 allowing the Chiefs to offer Jones said truckload of cash, maybe Jones decides that (I’m spitballing here) a four-year deal that begins in 2020 and includes $80 million in guarantees is better than a four-year deal that begins in 2021 and includes $85 million in guarantees.
This isn’t coming from Jones’ agent. I’m just thinking out loud. But it’s possible.
Nope.
I think Vitaly might be asking that facetiously, but the more interesting question is whether they could have won Super Bowl LIII with Steve Spagnuolo.
I suspect they could have, even accounting for the fact that the talent would not have been as good as it was in 2019.
We’ll never know that, of course. But, my goodness, they were as close as a team can be to beating the Patriots in the 2018 AFC Championship Game, and I would’ve liked their chances in a rematch with the Rams in the Super Bowl.
Well, you bring up signs at a stadium and this is both where my mind goes and most of why I’m including your question:
You’re asking about the Astros coming to Kauffman Stadium, of course, and this is the first that come to mind:
BANG ONCE IF YOU REMEMBER 2015
Also:
JIM CRANE IS DELUSIONAL
CODEBREAKER? I HARDLY KNEW HER!
CARLOS BELTRAN DID IT CLEAN IN KC
I like that you phrased the question this way because I think you unintentionally nailed the reverse chronological order of Kansas City’s greatest collective pet peeves.
It used to be the state thing, which touched on the flyover insecurity thing, but at some point that became such a common mistake that enough people are in on the joke. Can you REALLY be insulted the millionth time you hear someone screw that up*?
* Also, nobody around here likes it when I point this out, but it is objectively weird that there’s a Kansas City in both Kansas and Missouri and that most of the stuff people outside of Kansas City see is in Kansas City, Missouri. We can all get mad at the geographic ignorance, and doing so might feel therapeutic, but on some level I think we all know it’s weird to anyone who isn’t from here.
So then the next target is barbecue, and I felt like that peaked in the last five or 10 years with the (ugh) proliferation of listicles* pitting (no pun intended) spots in Kansas City against Texas against Memphis against (bless their adorable hearts) North Carolina.
* That word isn’t even red-underlined on my writing program now, which sort of makes me sad.
I believe with all of my soul that the world’s best barbecue comes from or at least has roots in Kansas City, but I also believe that if you don’t think the city you live in makes the world’s best ________, then I probably think you suck (with all due respect).
I remember the first time I knew with certainty that I no longer cared about barbecue wars. I was smoking my first brisket and decided to use Aaron Franklin’s recipe. I should mention I did this because I believe brisket in Texas is, in fact, generally better than brisket in Kansas City (and maybe I just lost 75 percent of my audience here, but you people deserve the truth).
Anyway, at one point in the video he mentions that people in Kansas City use the point for burnt ends, but that he’s not in Kansas City so ... well, I’ll just let you see for yourself if you’re up for it:
Anyway, when I watched that I sort of shrieked at first, because I love burnt ends nearly as much as I love my children (burnt ends NEVER talk back), but then I sort of shrugged and followed along.
You didn’t ask, but I’ve probably done a half-dozen or so briskets in my life. Half the time it’s been among the best meals of my life, and the other half it’s tasted like Famous Dave’s.
So, I’m getting off the point now, but hasn’t the barbecue thing gone the way of tired and harmless jokes?
Patrick Mahomes, on the other hand, is going to be protected at all costs and to all extremes. This popped into my head as a joke, but in the time it takes for a thought to go from my head to this screen I’m thinking it’s literally true in many cases: Kansas Citians would rather hear their spouse or child insulted than Mahomes.
In their defense, there aren’t many people in town who waited 50 years for their spouse or child.
Your timing could not be better, because I’m looking for the same. I guess I’ll be a company man here and mention that SportsBeat KC is the best podcast going about Kansas City sports, but you asked about non-sports, and I’ve been on the hunt for the same.
I dabble in the Ted Talks and Freakonomics, I enjoy some local pods like State Your Line and The KC Morning Show, and some nerdy journalism shows like The Sunday Long Read and Longform. I recently subscribed to The Happiness Lab and How To with Charles Duhigg, but it’s too early for a verdict on either of those. There’s a parenting podcast called Unruffled that I’ve found helpful.
You might consider this a sports podcast, but the Boston Globe did one on Aaron Hernandez called Gladiator that was fantastic. I like true crime stuff, so I enjoyed S-Town and Atlanta Monster.
I’ve also been doing — and I’m still unclear if we’re supposed to admit this out loud or not — some audiobooks, including Legacy, which I did mostly for work (Mike Matheny gave the book to his players, and I’m going to write about it soon) but also enjoyed generally.
But, please. Consider this an invitation to recommend any good podcasts or audiobooks. I don’t have a long commute (and often work from home anyway), but I’m starting to realize I’m in the car or working out a lot more than I think.
I don’t. Now, this is probably obvious but I’ll say it anyway: I can’t speak to the culture of the Premier League or soccer in England (or Spain or Brazil or Italy or any other country obsessed with The Beautiful Game™.
But I do know that America is obsessed with football, and I know that fan loyalties disappear mighty quick when one’s own career and reputation are on the line.
I don’t know officials well enough to know who grew up rooting for who but I think about other jobs in sports. Patrick Mahomes grew up a Cowboys fan. You think he cares about them now?
Cuonzo Martin went to Purdue, and loves Purdue, but if Mizzou plays Purdue he’s going to try like hell to beat Purdue. You think Bill Self cares about Oklahoma State?
With officials, if anything, I wonder if the opposite might be true. If by some chance a boy who grew up rooting for (just say) Texas A&M turned into a man who officiated an A&M game, I wonder if any bias might turn into the reverse. I wonder if that official would be hypersensitive to any accusations of fixing a game for his old school that he’d give that block/charge call to the other side.
But, I don’t know.
Except that if your point is that the Premier League, in all of its power and wealth, should have better officiating, then preach, brother.
I’m in. Look, I’ve taken on the position of outspoken member of Team Winter and sometimes I think the message is lost.
I’m not anti spring, and I’m not anti fall*, and I’m not even anti summer.
* Kansas City’s best season and it’s not close.
It’s just that I will fight a man over 40 degrees being better than 90 (unless you’re literally inside a swimming pool) and 20 being better than 100. This is a hill that I will proudly die on, and in fact, if you want to come to said hill you better kill me because it’s the only way I’ll stop fighting.
But, guys. I am not a monster. Spring weather is great and, now that we’re talking about it, 50s and 60s are my favorite days. Warm enough to comfortably grill and run outside, cold enough that you’re not in danger of unintentional sweat and, when the moon is just right, you might even get a night cold enough for a fire.
The other night we did burgers on the grill and then s’mores on the fire pit. What’s wrong with that?
The only casualties in weather like this is that it’s not warm enough for the pool or to go sunroof and windows open in the car, and it’s not cold enough for chili. But we all have to make sacrifices in this world.
This week, I’m particularly grateful for my wife. She makes me and my life better in so many ways I wouldn’t even know where to start.