The Royals are done with the word ‘rebuild.’ But they’re not done rebuilding
Ever try to trick yourself into thinking something new, into believing something different, into doing something more? I have.
Over the years I’ve tried to talk myself into eating better, working out more, traveling, staying off social media, calling friends, learning how to fix stuff around the house, keeping a better yard, knowing about wine, running a marathon, reading more books, saving more money and not stressing the small stuff.
Over those years, I’ve had spurts of giving up sugar, working out more, got up to a 20-mile training run once, become a below-average handyman, and, well, that’s about it, though I’m not entirely worried about any of it so maybe that’s the most thorough win I can claim.
Major changes are hard, is the point, and this all comes to mind because the Royals have lost 207 games the last two seasons and have spent this spring training announcing to the world that they are done rebuilding.
“Nobody wants to get your brains beat in year after year,” utilityman Whit Merrifield said. “It’s one thing to say it. We really believe it. We believe we have the talent in here to go out and have success. We just don’t feel like we’ve lived up to that expectation the last couple years.”
It’s true. To the outside world, it doesn’t make much sense. The Royals are mostly the same now as they were a year ago. Catcher Sal Perez’s return is important. Maikel Franco will lengthen the lineup. They have more options for the bullpen. Those things are all nice.
But, mostly, the Royals will try to be better than they were a year ago through individual improvement and a farm system ranked in baseball’s bottom third.
Reasons to believe
It’s ambitious as hell and goes against history. Thirty clubs have lost 100 or more games in a season this century. Of the 26 that did it between 2000 and 2018, just one — the 2017 Minnesota Twins — made the postseason the next year.
Just two others — including the 2003 Royals — had a winning record.
And yet, if you squint hard enough, you can see some legitimate reasons for optimism. Perez’s return should be worth a few wins alone. In theory, at least, with Hunter Dozier moving to the outfield and the dominoes going from there, Franco’s arrival should add punch to a lineup that often went limp at the bottom.
The Royals are hopeful that Adalberto Mondesi can play a full season, finally. New manager Mike Matheny has something like a platonic baseball crush on Ryan O’Hearn. Speaking of Matheny, there is a thought in many corners of the organization that the big-league team has needed the sort of expectations reset that he’s bringing so far.
As much as anything else, the Royals lost 25 games when tied or leading after seven innings last year. They blew 53 leads. Fifty-three! That’s the most in baseball, and 17 more than the league average.
Think about this: The Royals lost 11 more games than they won when tied after seven innings. They lost nine more than they won in extra innings.
Just win half of those and the record starts to look much different. These are the small things. They turn into big things, especially when the results don’t matter — when they’re not made to matter.
“There’s got to be an urgency,” general manager Dayton Moore said. “Mr. Glass used to say it all the time: Expectations drive results. If you expect to be .500 you’re not going to be better than .500.
“So I look now and there is a hunger. There is a competitiveness that I haven’t seen in a while. These guys, they want to prove themselves. They need to prove themselves. They know their backs are against the wall individually and as a team. Their reputation is on the line, forever.”
Reasons for concern
The season is full of landmines. For every potential breakout season (like O’Hearn), there’s a reality, like the fact that Mondesi has not played more than 110 games since he was 18, and that any injury or underperformance from a starting pitcher will put artificial strains on the club’s minor-league prospects.
Teams that lose 100 games always talk about being better the next year. The Royals did the same last spring. But there is a reason — more accurately, there are reasons — that improvement is usually measured in drips and not waves.
The rotation is a lot of maybes. The bullpen should be better, in part because it can’t get much worse, but it’s still more hope than certainty. There is a feeling that the offense will score enough, but the Royals were next-to-last in offense last year, and other than Merrifield, Jorge Soler and probably Dozier, they don’t have bankable production in 2020.
You might say Perez is bankable, and he’ll hit some homers, but his adjusted OPS has been above league average just once since 2013. You might say Mondesi will help, and he retains superstar potential, but his adjusted OPS was 14 percent below league average last year.
“I see where you’re going, and there will be plenty of reason for people to tell me I should be thinking different,” Matheny said. “But I don’t, and I won’t.”
This will be the Royals’ tug-of-war all season. They have real, honest, cross-their-hearts reasons to believe they can be much better this season. Those on the outside have tangible, sincere, you-can’t-be-serious reasons to doubt.
What’s interesting is that we may not have to wait long to see who’s right. The Royals’ recent history is full of seasons torpedoed before school lets out. Heck, just last spring, a disproportionate chunk of those blown leads happened in April and May. They lost 10 of their first 12, and 17 of their first 24. By June 1, they were 20 1/2 games back. They admit now that bad start sunk their confidence, and they allowed the bad results to snowball.
This season could be even more dependent on early results. Success from the jump would validate the clubhouse vibe and create a more energetic and focused place for the Royals’ star pitching prospects to join. It could be a force multiplier.
Then, the opposite could be true. Again. That’s the challenge for the 2020 Royals.