Mellinger Minutes: Chiefs’ best shot in history, Mahomes as change agent, A+ comebacks
Been thinking of Damien Williams.
When the Chiefs play host to the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship Game Sunday, it will have been 70 days since Williams sat in front of his locker still as a stone, tears falling down his face after his fumble during Kansas City’s loss in Nashville.
In all fairness, it really was just one reason the Chiefs lost. Might not have even been the biggest.
The field goal unit screwed up two kicks. On a third down that could’ve iced the outcome, Reid called a play in which Blake Bell was the only read. The defense went limp on the final drive, and when a third-down stop in the fourth quarter likely would have cinched the win did this on a scramble by Ryan Tannehill:
But Williams did fumble in the second quarter.
And that fumble was returned 53 yards for a touchdown.
And that play did give the Titans the lead, and without it they likely would not have won.
So, yeah. Been thinking about Williams.
I do not believe professional athletes need extra motivation. Not in the AFC Championship Game. Maybe some do, but they aren’t the type you’d win with anyway.
Sometimes they’ll feed that narrative, and if asked about it this week — and he will be — Williams might even give the idea life. Frank Clark went down a similar path after the Texans game, saying about the Titans: “We owe them one. Period. That’s it.”
But Clark strikes me as the kind of fella who could hype himself up to eat a PB&J. He’d make up some story in his head about how the peanut butter said he couldn’t chew or something, and that the jelly thought he couldn’t handle its stickiness. Clark would then make the sandwich disappear in two bites.
So, anyway, Williams might give his memories of that play. Might talk about wanting to do better for the team, and for himself. I can’t believe he’ll give more effort, though. I can’t believe he’ll be more focused.
But I do think if he has a big game — and he’s in position to — it’ll mean a little more to him. And I do think his teammates know that, and will think of it if the game goes that way.
This week’s reading recommendation is Ariel Levy on A World Without Pain (as a strong believer in without pain there is no joy, I felt like she was writing directly to me) and the eating recommendation is Andy Reid’s prime rib (3:30 mark here). You guys, I’m telling you. I cooked it Christmas Eve and it was the best prime rib I’ve ever had.
Please give me a follow on Twitter and Facebook and as always thanks for your help and thanks for reading.
Can we just call it what it is?
This is the Chiefs’ best chance to go to the Super Bowl in their history.
That’s not an exaggeration. That’s not being caught up in the moment. That’s not recency bias.
The Chiefs have not had a team this complete since at least 1997, and probably longer. This is just the fifth time that they have been one win from the Super Bowl* and they’ve never been in a spot this enviable.
*Sometimes this franchise’s sorry playoff history just slaps you in the face, you know?
After the 1966 season, they were a 3 1/2-point favorite at the Bills. They won.
After the 1969 season, they were a 5-point underdog against the Raiders. They won.
After the 1993 season, they were a 3-point underdog at the Bills. They lost.
After the 2018 season, they were a 3-point favorite against the Patriots. They lost.
Right now, they are a 7 1/2-point favorite against the Titans.
I wrote this in the final game column, but this team will either play in the Super Bowl or be remembered for blowing the kind of chance a lot of guys never see.
There is no middle ground. They will either play on football’s biggest stage or they will turn Derrick Henry into this generation of Chiefs fans’ John Elway. They will win the trophy named after their founder for the first time, or they will have turned one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history into dark comedy.
But, here’s the thing:
Chiefs fans should be confident. They have the best team remaining in the AFC and perhaps the league. They have Patrick Mahomes against Ryan Tannehill at Arrowhead Stadium. They have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce against press man coverage.
Why the hell would they not be confident?
OK, fine. I know the answer. I also know the counterargument.
This, as much as anything else, is going to be Patrick Mahomes’ legacy.
Allow me to pause. I hate “legacy” talk and recognize the absurdity of doing it with a professional athlete who is 24 years old and in just his second season as a starter.
It’s dumb, and I’m dumb for doing it, and I’m doing it anyway because we’re watching a transformational athlete at the height of his powers.
And if that sentence is wrong it’s only because Mahomes has not yet reached the height of his powers, in which case, holy $#!+.
Outside of Kansas City, they think of Mahomes as perhaps the best quarterback in football. They think of him as a man who continually pushes the boundaries of what’s possible, and what can logically be expected. They think of his creativity, his precision, his breathtaking plays and at some point they’ll also catch up to the idea that he’s pretty damn efficient in avoiding turnovers, too.
In and around Kansas City, we think of Mahomes as all of those things, because they’re true. But with one more win and especially two more wins, he will also be something else. Something bigger. Something better.
He’ll be the raspy voiced unicorn who took a franchise’s worst fears and buried them with its best moments. He’ll be the quarterback who changed everything. He’ll be the one who turned a horror show of postseason lowlights into confetti after the last game.
Football is a team sport, and it would be the ultimate team sport if not for the outsized impact that a quarterback can make.
Did you know that Deshaun Watson just became the first quarterback to throw for 300 yards, three touchdowns and no turnovers and still lose a playoff game?
That happened for a hundred reasons, including Bill O’Brien’s inexplicable decisions and a fumbled kickoff return and Clark’s relentlessness and Daniel Sorensen’s guts and Andy Reid’s coaching and Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.
But more than all of that, it happened because of Mahomes.
“Thank God we got Pat Mahomes,” Clark said, and then he said it again later.
The Chiefs have a very good roster, thanks to both the players Brett Veach inherited and the priorities he’s followed to improve.
But Mahomes changes everything.
The team he took over had lost recent playoff games at home without giving up a touchdown, after leading 21-3 at home when the opposing quarterback threw a touchdown to himself, and, we’re all friends here. We can stop now.
And it’s worth noting that Mahomes was the quarterback for a very Chiefsy loss (more on that in a minute), but there can’t be a franchise in the NFL and perhaps professional sports with more life experience about what a difference a star quarterback makes.
From the moment Len Dawson retired, the Chiefs have been roadblocked by Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, John Elway, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Marcus Mariota.
OK, sorry. I couldn’t resist.
Anyway, the opposite of all that is now true. If the Chiefs had a normal human playing quarterback — even a very good human playing quarterback! — we would be talking about a loss.
Instead, we’re talking about an all-time comeback. He has turned the remarkable into the normal. No quarterback has ever had a better first two years of a career, and why would we think he can’t be even better?
That’s Mahomes.
That’s exactly what I’m talking about. The Chiefs have been swimming in rocky waters for a long time. They have kept their heads above, for a while anyway, but you knew how the story would end.
Mahomes is the change agent.
You know about the talent. We all know about the talent. But one of the partners of that kind of talent is a platform to lead and impact beyond arm angles and big throws.
The Chiefs and others who know Mahomes well credit this part of him to a childhood spent around professional baseball players, following his dad through summers in clubhouses.
Throughout the training camp of 2018 I would receive texts with videos of some of the absurd plays he was making in practice. It was scrambling, it was completing passes that other quarterbacks would not attempt, and doing it with a sidearm delivery, and eyes pointed somewhere else.
That’s about the time I first thought it was likelier than not that something amazing was about to happen, because those texts were accompanied by conversations with players and coaches and others in the organization that were football’s version of a teenager talking about his first crush.
The point wasn’t just what these men were seeing and describing, mind you.
The point was that they saw something new, and saw that something new was now possible. NFL players have a million (often more) reasons to perform. But having been around both sides of it now, there’s a clear difference when guys know they have a real chance to play in and win Super Bowls.
It’s not that they’re not trying, or focused or ambitious in those other years.
But there is a rise in their focus, confidence and energy when they have a freak show like Mahomes.
Not that the Chiefs would eeehhhhver do this, but I’m assuming that was for show.
They made this announcement about not having anymore fireworks, and then later on they set off more fireworks.
Now, maybe these are different fireworks. Maybe touchdown fireworks are different than end of game fireworks, or whatever, and I’m happily ignorant on all of this.
But I also think about it like this. What would be the funniest thing, or the thing that people at the game would remember?
Isn’t it this?
But, yeah. Pack some extra fireworks if you have to.
Cody is a Chiefs fan!
I want to be very clear about something. It is entirely possible that Derrick Henry runs for 213 yards and three touchdowns and the Titans beat the Chiefs 24-23 after a last-second game-winning touchdown by the Chiefs is negated after an actual polar bear runs onto the field.
Like, that could happen.
Don’t say it couldn’t.
I’m just here to say I believe something has changed. I believe the Chiefs are different now. I believe that if you lived in another city and rooted for another team that you would look at Mahomes and Hill and Kelce and wonder how the hell those guys fixed their defense and then wonder how the hell your team can beat them.
I think about how a team with Mahomes at quarterback would not blow a 21-3 lead at home, or a 38-10 lead on the road, or find a way to lose when the defense did not give up a touchdown.
I think about how even in Mahomes’ lone personal exposure to Chiefsyness, his part in it was minimal. After Dee Ford’s offsides wiped away Charvarius Ward’s interception, Mahomes stood on the sideline as the Patriots scored the inevitable go-ahead touchdown.
Then he got on the field with just 32 seconds left and the first time he touched the ball he did this:
And then the second time he touched the ball he did this:
Then the Chiefs kicked the field goal that set up the coin flip and you know the rest. But where is Mahomes’ fault? Did he miss a tackle? Call the wrong defensive play? Get beat by Gronk?
The offense stunk in the first half. Mahomes owns his share of that. Nobody remembers this now, but Reggie Ragland intercepted Tom Brady in the end zone that night. That play was crucial in keeping the Chiefs from drowning. So it’s not all Mahomes. Not even close.
But when you have that guy after decades of not having that guy you can feel the difference in your bones.
That’s some good tweetin’, Tim.
Mahomes will continue to soak up most of the attention for as long as the Chiefs are playing, and he should, but nobody wins a Super Bowl without the second and third tier of talent performing above their proven level.
Sorensen changed that game, and no matter what happens going forward that’s part of how he’ll be remembered in Kansas City. He’s having a really good season, not just on Sunday but making the play at the end of the Chargers game in Mexico City and other important moments.
Mecole Hardman had some of that, too. His big kickoff return was the first real life the Chiefs had, and set up their first touchdown. He’s capable of breaking any game open.
Armani Watts has an interesting opportunity. Tanoh Kpassagnon bothered Watson. Mike Pennel, Khalen Saunders, Anthony Hitchens and Ragland have an opportunity against one of the league’s best backs.
We talked earlier about Williams. Could be a heck of a chance for him.
The offensive line tends to get called out at every pressure, but they’ve been really good. Sammy Watkins has had some nice moments in the postseason.
There are others. We could go on. Good teams usually have options.
The Chiefs are a good team, with the chance to prove they’re great.
You probably know that Henry has rushed for more than 180 yards in each of the Titans’ last three game. He is the first running back in NFL history to do that.
He is a next-level combination of power, agility, instincts, smarts and speed. He is a middle linebacker’s nightmare.
But did you know that during those three games — with unprecedented success from their running back — the Titans have scored on just 11 of 27 possessions? That’s 40.7 percent, which would’ve ranked seventh in the regular season.
In their two playoff games, the Titans have scored on six of 18 possessions. That rate would’ve tied the Lions for 20th in the regular season.
The Chiefs, if you’re curious, scored on 49.2 percent of their possessions in the regular season. In their last three games — the ones with nearly full health — they’ve scored on 17 of 26 possessions. That’s 65.4 percent, which is not only better than their record-setting season in 2018 but statistically absurd. The 2007 Patriots scored on 52.7 percent, the highest rate of the 21st century.
Also, if you’re a time of possession person, the Titans have been out TOP’d in the playoffs.
My point is not to belittle the Titans. They are worthy of the AFC Championship Game and, if they get there, the Super Bowl. Their defense is fast and hits hard and always takes the right angle. Henry is a superstar and their offense has found a dangerous balance with Ryan Tannehill taking shots with play-action.
But the fact is the Chiefs are better, and what they do well on offense is a more effective way of winning modern NFL games than what the Titans do well on offense.
I will leave you with a few other stats: the Titans finished 24th in pass defense, 25th in pressuring the quarterback and 15th in passer rating against.
The Titans play more man coverage than most, and after some well-publicized struggles the Chiefs beat man coverage better than most. That’s one way the Ravens got in trouble, actually. They didn’t have the defensive backs to stay with Hill or Kelce, so the yardage came in chunks of completions and penalties.
The Titans are very good.
But I believe they might get blown out.
I’m sure there are other ways to do this than the one I’ll try. I’m sure you could blame Reid and the other coaches for the slow start, if you want, even if I think that’s a stretch with dropped catches and a dropped punt.
And I’m sure you could give Reid and the coaches credit for the play-calling and schemes that dismantled the Texans, for the way they kept attacking man coverage, for the way they helped the offensive line protect Mahomes, for the way they helped contain the Texans (early blown coverage aside).
I’m sure you could even make sense of all that, somehow.
But to me, the biggest effect Andy Reid had in that game wasn’t anything he did Sunday.
The biggest effect Reid had was in his personality. They say teams take on the personality of their coach, and Reid is unfailingly calm, unflappable and direct. He tends to filter the world into two parts — what’s real, in his words, and what’s not.
Again, all of that is easier when you have a generational talent at quarterback surrounded by elite playmakers on both sides of the ball. I do believe players should get the primary credit.
But it’s also telling that 135 of the previous 143 teams to fall behind 21 points after the first quarter lost, and did so by an average of 39 points.
The norm, in other words, is that things get worse, not better.
The Chiefs were dissolving, and then won IN A BLOWOUT. They looked lost and then ended the game in victory formation.
I’ve covered this team long enough to have been around for good coaches and bad, for locker rooms that believed and locker rooms that made business decisions.
This one has all the good traits, and we saw that most clearly when things were the worst Sunday.
The head coach has to get some credit for that.
Thanks for the support, Tanner!
I’m not going to pretend to know more than I do here. I’ve watched some of the Packers and some of the 49ers and will watch a lot more film of one of those teams next week if the Chiefs win Sunday.
So consider this a superficial view.
I believe the 49ers are better.
Aaron Rodgers is the better quarterback, but Jimmy Garoppolo is having the better season — in completion percentage, passer rating, QBR, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, pretty much everything except interceptions. Kyle Shanahan is the truth.
But the biggest difference is on defense.
The 49ers finished second in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA. They stop the run and they especially stop the pass, with a wicked combination of dependable defensive backs (most notably Richard Sherman) and a deep defensive line that’s essentially a mirror of what Chiefs GM Veach wants to build in KC — Arik Amsted, Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner and Ford each finished with 6 1/2 sacks or more, a feat no other team in the league matched.
Matt Breida is a home run hitter in the backfield, though Raheem Mostert has taken more of the carries recently. George Kittle is a problem at tight end, and they have some tough receivers, too.
They’re a damn good team, is what I’m trying to say.
The Packers are, too, so this isn’t me saying either matchup would be a layup. But I think the 49ers are better.
For transparency’s sake, I was not at the 2012 Border War game at Allen Fieldhouse. I was in Hawaii, on my honeymoon. I have no regrets.
OK, these are the first five that come to mind:
5. Kansas down 14 to West Virginia with less than 3 minutes left, 2017. The Jayhawks trailed by 14 with less than 3 minutes left. A not insignificant number of fans left Allen Fieldhouse. Afterward, swept in the emotion, Bill Self called it the best game he’d been part of at the Fieldhouse before correcting himself.
“Other than the Mizzou game,” he said.
4. The Colts down 38-10 to the Chiefs in the second half of the 2013 season’s wild card round. The Colts outscored the Chiefs 35-6 from that point on. Walking into the locker room afterward almost felt like an invasion of a moment too raw for public consumption.
3. The Royals down 6-2 to the Astros in the eighth inning of the 2015 ALDS Game 4. That was an elimination game and, yes, I’d started writing my Nothing They Did This Year Matters column. Keep the line moving. Control-A delete.
2. The Patriots down 28-3 to the Falcons in the third quarter of Super Bowl LI. Nobody will remember how good that catch was by Julio Jones, not just because of the comeback but because of Julian Edelman’s ridiculous catch. There is a case for this as the greatest Super Bowl in history.
1. The Royals down 7-3 to the A’s in the eighth inning of the 2014 Wild Card Game. In some ways, more than five years later, I’m still stunned about what happened. I paid way too much money for good seats for that game, for my wife and her brother. I texted her in the seventh inning with an apology and hopes that she still had a good night. She did.
My disclaimer: I’m probably forgetting something. I feel pretty certain I’m not forgetting anything that would crack the top 3, and probably the top 4 (sorry guys).
But No. 5 is available for a takedown.
I want to make two points.
First, Chris Jones did not injure himself playing basketball. A source I’ve known for years and who has never lied to me (and, in fact, who has corrected others who’ve lied to me) offered an emphatic denial of the Internet rumor. Jones’ calf was hurt during Thursday’s practice. It’s awful luck, and worse timing.
Second, yes, absolutely, that basketball hoop needs to go. This has nothing to do with Jones. I’ve thought this all season. I’m all for guys being able to blow off steam, and there’s some genuine team building that can happen around that hoop. But the games have slowly moved from shooting around to H-O-R-S-E to friendly one-on-one to heated two-on-two.
Once, earlier in the season, Marcus Kemp went flying into a wall. On another day, a tile fell from the ceiling, crashing to the ground directly in front of Mecole Hardman’s locker.
Give them a ping pong table. Or pool. Corn hole. Pop-a-shot. Whatever.
But this hoop has been a bad idea for a long time.
In theory, yes, I’m with you. And I might even be with you in practice.
The difference is that nobody looks at the Astros’ recent success the same way now. Nobody. Astros owner Jim Crane can’t truly believe his own words when he said the scandal doesn’t taint their world championship. The Houston Asterisks* will live forever.
* Shoutout Twitter.
Because the best part of winning isn’t the joy of the moment. That stuff fades. Nobody can be that happy forever. The best part is the memories. It’s the stuff that sticks with you.
It’s Sal Perez reaching for that ball six feet off the plate, or Eric Hosmer dropping one into the Astros’ bullpen, or Wade Davis pitching both sides of a rain delay, or Mike Moustakas’ dugout catch, or Hosmer’s sprint home.
It’s the parade.
It’s the picture in your living room.
It’s the ticket stubs, the T-shirts, the hugs you gave friends and strangers.
I don’t know. But I think all of that would feel different if you knew it was built at least in part on your guys knowing what pitches are coming through a system that everyone agrees is against both the rules and spirit of baseball.
The Astros aren’t taking down any banners. We can all agree on that.
But at least in this moment, I feel two things.
First, the penalties — the only ways to send a clear message are to punish players and hit owners harder in their pockets — probably aren’t enough.
Second, if I was an Astros fan, I’d probably stuff that World Series T-shirt at the bottom of a drawer.
Kansas, like pretty much all college basketball teams, is at its best offensively with four guards.
But largely because they recruited with the idea of Udoka Azubuike not being there this year, their best lineup is probably the one with two bigs.
The upside is they can defend like a mother with that lineup, and any analysis or criticism of the offense’s struggles must be made with that context.
But it does make doubling the bigs easier, it does make spacing the floor harder and it does nothing for their passing, which might be this team’s biggest weakness.
I don’t know what the solution is and, to be honest, the Chiefs have sucked up so much of my work (and personal) life that I haven’t been able to watch as much college basketball as I’d like.
I wonder if Isaiah Moss has to play more, defense be damned. I wonder if KU needs the best version of Silvio De Sousa. I wonder if we’re making this more complicated than it needs to be, that the whole thing just depends on whether Devon Dotson is healthy and at his best.
I wouldn’t use the word “outdated,” in part because that Final Four run two years ago was going all-in with four guards. Self isn’t some dinosaur, unaware of how the other half lives.
KU had some surprises with recruiting, and they’re trying to figure their best way forward.
But at least on the surface, I do think Dotson and Ochai Agbaji have to be the solution to some of these problems.
Once, I posted a picture of what I consider to be the best ballpark meal possible*: helmet nachos and a Banquet.
* Though, in fairness, I did not know about helmet tachos.
I posted that picture and you’d have thought I kicked someone’s cat. You guys, I will not stand Banquet slander. Not now, not then, not ever.
So, that’s my answer. Banquet.
This week, I’m particularly grateful for you, because you’re reading this. I always wanted this job and I always could’ve given you a hundred reasons why. All of them have lived up to what I expected, and along with some unexpected downsides (all jobs have them) I never thought ahead to the connections I’d feel with readers.
Whether you’ve read one column or a thousand, and whether we’ve never communicated or we’re now friends, allowing me to be a small part of your day is an honor I know has to be earned and one I hope I never take for granted.
Thank you.
This story was originally published January 14, 2020 at 5:00 AM.