Failing Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs must prove worthy of their superstar’s presence
Everything felt possible in the moments that stick in the mind. Perhaps more succinctly, anything felt possible. In these moments, Patrick Mahomes changes the world.
A career already full of magic tricks added another gem, a wild, cold-blooded and athletically arrogant blur in which stepping up against edge pressure meant stepping into interior pressure and that’s about when most human humans go down, or throw a panicked wobbler, or otherwise perform the quarterback’s version of an involuntary and messy bodily function.
Mahomes, of course, is different. His receivers were covered, his pocket was disintegrating. His response to an impossible spot was to shape-shift reality by jumping off one leg, a purely instinctual decision that served the dual purpose of erasing the spy’s ability to knock down the pass and creating an extra fraction of a second so that he could throw open a covered receiver.
Mahomes watched the touchdown from the ground, having been smushed by a defender. He rose with joy, then celebrated a little like a kindergartner on the playground, an exaggerated skip to the sideline where he slapped hands with teammates on offense and defense and cursed into the Tennessee air.
In the moment, the throw changed everything. The Chiefs led by nine, in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs had a 90 percent chance of winning, an achievement that would’ve pushed them forward in the chase for a first-round bye. They had survived his injury; now they would thrive in his return.
You already know what happened. The Chiefs happened. The bad Chiefs happened. The defense could not tackle Ryan Tannehill on third and 10. Special teams botched a field goal. The defense went limp on the last drive. Reid called a play that turned his best receivers into decoys, and his rocket ship quarterback into a standard deliveryman. Special teams botched another field goal.
Basically, everyone on the team let down the player most responsible for lifting them all.
Damned if that’s not even the Chiefs’ worst nightmare.
Failing Mahomes’ talent in a regular-season game against the Titans was bad.
Failing him in last year’s AFC Championship game against the Patriots was worse.
Failing like this going forward would be an unforgivable football sin, a mark that has stained franchises before and dragged the reputations of those unable to win a Super Bowl without a Hall of Fame quarterback.
Seriously, it’s worse than you think
Patrick Mahomes’ talent changes everything. It casts a shadow over every corner of the organization, from business to football, from draft strategy to roster construction, and from game plans to play-calling decisions.
His talent is football’s most precious gift, which means it is also football’s most awesome responsibility.
Do. Not. Waste. It.
Against the Titans, the Chiefs wasted it with ruthless efficiency and relentlessness.
Consider this: No quarterback since 1950 has performed more similarly in wins and losses than Mahomes, according to research by football writer Scott Kacsmar.
We also know that Mahomes has the highest career passer rating (112.5) of any quarterback with at least 25 starts since 1960, according to Pro Football Reference’s play index.
In other words: Mahomes is performing at a higher level than any quarterback in history, and doing it with more consistency than any quarterback in history. Football has never been this tilted toward quarterbacks, and Mahomes is giving the Chiefs an advantage in virtually every game.
The rest of the team is wasting it far too often: They’ve lost his last three full games, and six of his last 12.
Everyone has a hand in this. Lets start at the top.
Andy Reid
In most of the ways that matter the most, Reid is among Mahomes’ greatest assets. He won 182 games before Mahomes’ first start and it’s fair to say he waited his entire career for Mahomes’ arrival.
Reid had a hand in surrounding Mahomes with one of the league’s best collections of playmakers, all of it enhanced by endlessly creative play designs. Mahomes would be terrific in any system; he is a force of nature in Reid’s.
But there are moments that Reid could allow Mahomes to have even more of an impact.
In the Titans game, this stood out most acutely on the third and 2 on the Chiefs’ penultimate drive. The call rested entirely on Reid fooling the Titans, a reasonable gamble with a pedestrian quarterback, and unreasonable whiff with Mahomes.
But more broadly, Reid has a Ferrari and too often drives it like an Accord.
Consider this: Since the beginning of last season, the Chiefs have attempted to convert just 10 fourth downs of 3 or fewer yards with the score within a touchdown.
At that down and distance, metrics show teams should almost always go for it. The Chiefs have attempted just 48.6 percent, which is only slightly above the league-wide rate (44.2).
Put another way: Despite having one of the league’s most dynamic offenses, Reid has chosen to operate like he’s coaching Sam Darnold. And, actually, that’s unfair to the Jets: they’ve attempted 54 percent of their fourth-and-shorts.
Think about it like this. If you’re the defense, and you’re facing Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill on fourth and 3, what are you hoping they do?
You’re dang right you’re hoping they kick, even if you didn’t know they’ve converted on 83 percent of their fourth-and-shorts.
As a matter of mathematical fact, the Chiefs probably should’ve gone for the fourth and 2 at the end, instead of setting up for a field goal that was blocked.
The rest of the offense
They don’t get off the hook, either.
Running back Damien Williams’ fumble was returned 54 yards for a touchdown, and that’s not a fluke. Each of the Chiefs’ four losses has included a fumble that led to points for the opposition. One of those was Mahomes against the Texans, so he shares blame here.
But it’s not complicated: Hold onto the ball.
The Chiefs’ offense let Mahomes down against the Titans in other ways, too. He completed 9 of 13 passes on third down for 166 yards, including that magic-trick touchdown we referenced at the top.
All but two of the completions went for first downs. The exceptions: a 17-yard gain that set up an easier field goal, and a called screen that the Titans defended well.
It’s worth noting what happened on the five incompletions: Sammy Watkins dropped a pass wide-open over the middle, Tyreek Hill dropped a pass that hit his hands and Demarcus Robinson and Hill missed challenging but catchable passes. That doesn’t include the third-and-2 call that essentially turned Mahomes into a robot.
Conservatively, the missed catches forced a punt on a drive that would’ve at least netted a field-goal attempt and forced field-goal attempts when touchdowns would’ve been almost certain (Hill was inside the 5 on one), or at least possible.
That’s a difference of somewhere between three and 11 points, just by catching balls that hit hands, in a game decided by three.
The defense
For the last three seasons many Chiefs fans have had a similar wish: Just give us an average defense.
Whether they realize it or not that’s vaguely what they have now: the Chiefs rank 19th in points against, 17th in turnover rate, and 17th in DVOA.
We can see it hasn’t been good enough. The run defense has (somehow) regressed from last year, which means no matter how much better they are against the pass (and the improvement is significant), a potential fatal flaw remains in the postseason against the Ravens (league-high 5.5 yards per rush), Texans (5.0, fourth) and Titans (you saw it).
The bar isn’t high for the defense, but they need progress to clear it. Basically, the Chiefs’ defense is asked to do two things: get off the field on third down, and get important stops.
They rank 20th in third down percentage, 23rd in points per possession and gave up touchdowns on two of the Titans’ three possessions in the fourth quarter. One of them featured a conversion by Tannehill despite Rashad Fenton making contact four yards shy of the first down and Tyrann Mathieu having a chance to join the tackle.
The defense appeared to take a significant step forward against the Vikings. They bottled the league’s leading rusher to 71 yards on 21 carries and set up the winning field goal by ripping a three-and-out when Minnesota took over with the score tied and 2:30 left.
The defense doesn’t need to win games for the Chiefs. It just needs to allow the offense to win games.
Special teams
This one is strange, because for years the Chiefs have taught their fans to expect an advantage on special teams.
Using Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the Chiefs ranked first, third, ninth, first, fourth and second in Dave Toub’s first six years as Reid’s special teams coach.
So far this year, they’re 12th.
Obviously, that’s not terrible — and ahead of the Patriots, 49ers and Seahawks, among others — but it’s a departure from what’s been the norm.
They’re standing out in the wrong ways, too, with no return longer than 36 yards and 14 penalties for 111 yards — that’s second-worst in each category.
Harrison Butker (who was terrific against the Vikings) has missed four field goals and two extra points. Those missed kicks include the one that was blocked at the end against the Titans, but not the one that was never kicked because of a bizarre miscommunication between long-snapper James Winchester and holder Dustin Colquitt.
A missed extra point, blocked field goal and botched field goal mean the Chiefs’ special teams flushed away seven points in a game decided by three.
This should be stated: The disaster against the Titans is an outlier. KC’s Special teams have generally ranged from reliable to outstanding under Toub. But this can’t become the new trend, either.
Front office
General manager Brett Veach’s group has generally done a good job managing deficiencies in the salary cap and particular position groups. The Chiefs are in position to make Mahomes the highest-paid player in league history after this season and have a path toward signing star defensive end Chris Jones long-term (receiver Sammy Watkins can be cut to gain $14 million in cap space).
The signing of safety Tyrann Mathieu and drafting of safety Juan Thornhill turned one of the league’s worst position groups into a team strength.
But even if a pinched nerve in his neck is to blame, defensive end Frank Clark has not performed to the level expected when the Chiefs surrendered a first-round pick, a second-round pick and $63.5 million in guarantees to bring him to Kansas City. The Chiefs have used draft picks and an airport-prices free-agent contract on the linebacker group, and that group has not performed well enough.
The front office’s chunk of this is nuanced. At the moment, and for the rest of this season, it is the coaches and other players who will be accountable for making Mahomes’ outsized impact matter.
But long-term, particularly once Mahomes takes up something approaching his market value of cap space, the careers of Veach and his assistants will be judged on whether Mahomes gets enough support to win Super Bowls.
We’ve seen franchises waste all-time talents before. Miami icon Don Shula has said his greatest football regret is not winning a championship with quarterback Dan Marino, who was often blocked by the Buffalo Bills and Jim Kelly, who also never won.
Mahomes gives the Chiefs an enormous advantage. It’s up to the rest of the franchise to hold up their end of the bargain.
This story was originally published November 17, 2019 at 5:00 AM.