Mellinger Minutes: The Chiefs’ meltdown, questioning Andy Reid, and more
The Chiefs have lots and lots of problems. They have fundamental deficiencies that in the micro are showing up in the wrong spots and in the macro are showing themselves to be a pattern.
They are 3-4 against teams that currently have records at or above .500 and that includes a win over the Raiders, who at the time stunk.
They are struggling to convert touchdowns and often in short yardage situations. They are fumbling way too much.
They are giving up far too many big plays and, even with significantly improved coverage, carry a run defense that has the look of a fatal flaw.
Special teams, long a source of pride with the Chiefs, are now a disaster. They’re penalized too much, the coverage isn’t good enough, and they lit two field goal attempts on fire in a game they lost by one field goal.
They are injured, sure, and for a while that seemed like their primary worry. But not anymore. Not at this point in the season, when a group that should be getting better is repeating mistakes.
But the point today is not whether the Chiefs have issues. Of course they do.
The point today is whether those issues can be corrected. I believe they can; if it doesn’t happen soon the season is going to get away from them.
The Chiefs are now three losses behind the Patriots, two behind the Ravens, and one behind the Texans. If you want to dream about the Chiefs winning out, then there is still a chance they could have the No. 2 seed — most likely in a three-way tie that would favor their division record.
But, realistically, a successful Chiefs season will mean not only fixing the current issues on the fly but then winning on the road in the postseason. Even for those of us who believe homefield advantage (especially at Arrowhead) is overrated that’s less than ideal.
Here’s a rough sketch of what the Chiefs turning this around and winning in the postseason would look like:
▪ Eric Fisher and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif return soon to bring stability back to the offensive line, which pulls the offense closer to the 2018 level. That’s a thing, by the way. I know everyone wants to blame the defense, and against the Titans special teams was disastrous, but the offense hasn’t been what it was, either.
Even only looking at Mahomes’ games, the offense has had a part in each of the three losses.
Against the Colts, they scored just 13 points on nine possessions.
Against the Texans, they scored just seven points after the first quarter and turned it over twice, including a fumble by Mahomes that essentially gift-wrapped a touchdown before halftime.
And against the Titans they gave up a fumble returned for a touchdown and after being gifted excellent field position on a turnover on downs could not convert a third-and-2 that would have sealed the outcome (more on that later).
You might think it’s unfair to knock a group that’s been mostly terrific — did you know Mahomes is averaging 353 yards passing per full healthy game this year? — but to me the expectations should be based on potential.
I don’t expect our preschooler to pay the mortgage.
▪ Defensively, they mostly need consistency. They’re going to give up some yards and some points but they can’t just whiff on Derrick Henry in the open field like that. They can’t continue to have these miscommunications that leave receivers sprinting downfield behind cornerbacks.
A Chiefs defense good enough to support a terrific offense in the playoffs looks like this: a healthy Frank Clark and Chris Jones overwhelming fronts, the linebackers playing assignments and filling gaps, the corners continuing to cover like they are but making occasional plays on the ball, and the safeties providing support and making plays.
We’ve seen glimpses of all of that, with the notable exception of Clark being healthy.
I don’t know if they’ll get there. But I do know they have the pieces to do it.
▪ Special teams need to be much better. It’s hard to know exactly what’s going on over there. They’ve had far too many penalties, have appeared to miss assignments, and against the Titans were far sloppier than is acceptable for professionals.
I’m using that word intentionally, too. Sloppy. James Winchester has been as reliable at his job as anyone employed by the Chiefs is at theirs, but he appeared to make a brain locked mistake at the wrong moment.
We’ll talk more about the blocked field goal, and I know everyone wants to whine about the Titans player being offsides (he wasn’t) or Blake Bell being slow (he was) but the organization on the block might’ve doomed the play anyway.
That stuff just has to be cleaned up, and time is running out.
This week’s reading recommendation is Tom Junod on Mister Rogers and the eating recommendation is the steak sandwich at Brown and Loe.
Please give me a follow on Twitter and Facebook and as always thanks for your help and thanks for reading.
Ballpark guesses here, but I’m pretty sure we’ve done more than 400 of these time sucks and Kansas City’s most popular form of weekly gimmick sports journalism has faced this question more than any other:
Why?
Dear reader, you have asked this question about the Royals and the Chiefs and Sporting and every local university and probably Famous Dave’s and other scourges on our culture.
The answer changes, of course, from the bullpen to the offense to the defense to special teams to Charlie Weis being a terrible hire.
We will get to all of this, and soon, but before you’ve even asked for a list — a list? — I present you with: A List!
Thirty-thousand foot view here, the reasons the Chiefs lost to the Titans, ranked:
1. Special teams. Hoo boy that was bad. They were penalized, finally didn’t fumble, but did fair catch inside the 5 and blew two field goals. James Winchester has been one of the Chiefs’ steadiest and most reliable performers, so it sucks that he earns the rare mention this way, but that ill-timed snap simply can’t happen.
Then, later, you just can’t get a field goal blocked in that spot. We pause here to wonder if Joshua Kalu was offsides:
That’s tough. Watching live, I thought he was offsides and thought it enough that I was half waiting for the flag. But on the replay, it’s pretty clear he’s not off. Someone screwed up on the blocking, though, because it looks like Blake Bell is left to block two men on the edge where the kick is going.
That’s terrible.
Dave Toub’s guys used to be among the best in the business. That hasn’t been true at all this year, except when Tyreek Hill is back to return punts and the Vikings are so terrified they forget how to punt.
2 (tie). Offense. Let’s say this right up front: my expectations for the offense are much higher than for the defense. You hire Andy Reid and you have declared yourself a team that will win or lose on offense. You draft Patrick Mahomes and you have written that declaration in stone.
Damien Williams fumbled, and it was returned 53 yards for a touchdown. The Chiefs have lost four times. Each of their losses has featured a fumble that’s either been returned for a touchdown or set up the opposition for a touchdown. That’s unacceptable.
Sammy Watkins dropped passes, and Tyreek Hill had a pass or two knocked from his hands. On third-and-2, game on the line, the offense didn’t convert. We’ll get to the play call soon, but either way, the best offense in the league is supposed to convert third-and-2 when it matters.
2 (tie). Defense. A week after taking the lion’s share of the win against the Vikings, the defense reverted. They had a few moments so awful that many won’t remember the good, which is fair, because professional sports is about results.
Charvarius Ward and Jordan Lucas miscommunicated on a deep pass, and Derrick Henry darted through the gut of the defense on a 68-yard run — Juan Thornhill whiffed in the open field — and you can add not being able to tackle Ryan Tannehill to the list.
They surrendered only 20 points before the last drive, when they were visibly gassed and would not have been on the field if not for the failings we’ve already talked about, but that was an opportunity to win a game. The defense did not win the game.
Deep breath.
This is going to be a heck of a few minutes here you guys.
The defense was not good Sunday. Obviously.
I also don’t see them as the biggest reason for the loss.
We’re talking about perception here, and there are at least two things at play that I seem to believe more than most of you.
First, this is what an improved defense looks like. I probably get 100 messages a week, at least, questioning my sanity for thinking the defense is better than last year and every time it makes me wonder if everyone has forgotten how horrific the defense was last year.
They’re giving up about three fewer points per game, and that includes the points given up by the offense — directly, like with Damien Williams’ fumble, and indirectly, like the Mahomes fumble that gave the Texans an easy touchdown. They’re also about nine spots better in yards.
One more time: this is not an argument that the defense is good enough. But they are better, and particularly against the pass, which makes me think there’s a way for this group to be good enough by the end of year. I’m not sure that could’ve been said a year ago.
The second element at play here is that my expectations for the offense are perhaps higher than most of you. Where many of you are remembering the Titans’ last drive — and I’m not here to say that was anything other than awful — I’m remembering the offense giving the Titans seven points on a fumble and failing to convert a third-and-2 that would’ve sealed the game.
I’m also remembering the defense held the Raiders to 10 points on the road, scored on a 100-yard fumble return against the Lions, gave up 19 (including six on drives that started in their own territory) against the Colts, annihilated the Broncos, and were the biggest reason for the win over the Vikings.
For me, my expectation was for the defense to be good enough to get out of the way. For the Chiefs to not again field the only defense in the league that could stop Mahomes.
I think that’s what they have now, but once you start giving away six points on special teams and seven on offense the formula doesn’t work.
This was the most “liked” Chiefs question of the week, and if you want to know the clearest way to have your question included here, you could do worse than asking the question that generates the most interest.
I also want to say: I understand the question.
This is Andy Reid’s 21st season and no coach has ever won a Super Bowl after that many years without.
He’s developed a reputation for short-arming the biggest moments, for clock mismanagement, and for generally coaching teams just good enough to let you down in the end. He has a losing record in the playoffs.
So, yes. I get it.
Also: I believe he’s a damn good coach and will win a Super Bowl with the Chiefs.
He is far from perfect. His teams are consistently undisciplined, he let loyalty blind him into keeping Bob Sutton a year too long, and the last few years he’s found a way to lose most of the close games.
People don’t talk about this a lot, but the Chiefs are 8-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less the last two seasons.
That’s not awesome. There are a lot of factors in that. Coaching is one of them.
So, again. I get it.
But we’re a week removed from him beating one of the league’s best teams with a third-string quarterback, after all. We’re a year removed from him being a coin flip from the Super Bowl, after all.
He runs a good locker room. His players love him. They play hard for him. They believe in him. He consistently schemes advantages for his offense. That’s a lot of the fight right there.
Bill Belichick is the best coach going, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. That’s not a hot take.
But after that? Who would you take over Reid? For me, it’s probably John Harbaugh and that’s all. I’ll listen on Sean Payton. Matt LaFleur might be a prodigy, who knows.
But who else?
Who is available and so good you want to fire a proven winner and probable Hall of Famer who has the respect of the locker room and the total trust of the unicorn quarterback?
I know that’s a tempting thing to say: good teams don’t lose these games.
But, they do. Before we get to that, though, I’d point out that the Chiefs this season have also beaten the team most believe is the AFC’s second best behind the Patriots, won on a last-minute touchdown drive on the road, and beat one of the NFC’s best teams with a third-string quarterback.
Those things still happened.
But, yes. The loss to the Titans was bad.
You know what else is bad? Losing consecutive games by a combined 27 points to teams that finish with a combined 11-21 record. This is also bad: losing consecutive games to non-playoff teams, including one when you managed just 10 points and went limp on the last drive in December.
That’s really bad, right?
The Patriots did all of that last season and still had a parade.
The year before the Eagles got manhandled twice, including against the Chiefs and one more time in December, and won the Super Bowl.
The year before that the Patriots got shut out against the sorry-no-account Bills and then gave up a fourth quarter lead and failed on the last drive with the ball at the 1 at home coming off a bye week — and won the Super Bowl.
The year before that the Broncos lost four of seven in November and December and even benched their quarterback. They needed overtime to beat the Browns. They won the Super Bowl.
So, look. The way you worded the question I’m not going to argue, other than to point out that being considered a true Super Bowl contender in November is fundamentally irrelevant.
It was a horrific loss, and just to be double sure here: this is not me predicting the Chiefs will make the Super Bowl
But lets not pretend that one bad loss by a team that has not been whole since the second quarter of the season opener is some sort of disqualification.
At the moment, the Chiefs would be the No. 4 seed and play the Bills in the wild card round at home.
But there are five teams within a game of 6-4, and the Bills appear to be fading after an easy early schedule, so let’s not be bound by the moment when we make up the Chiefs’ path to the Super Bowl.
Wild card round vs. Raiders. The Chiefs beat the Raiders by exploiting their greatest strength (playmakers in the passing game) against the Raiders’ biggest weakness (currently 30th or worse in pass defense, passing TDs surrendered, and yards per attempt against).
Divisional round at New England. The Chiefs create pressure with an interior pass rush and use Tyrann Mathieu’s combination of brains and instinct to take away some of the short passing game favored by this version of Tom Brady. On the other side, the Patriots again double Tyreek Hill and put Stephon Gilmore on Sammy Watkins but Mahomes has enough success with body blows to Travis Kelce and big hits to Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson.
AFC Championship game at Baltimore. The Chiefs have privately dreaded this matchup more than New England, knowing that a rematch would be significantly more difficult than the home opener. The Chiefs give Juan Thornhill the assignment of his life as a virtual full-time spy on Lamar Jackson, trusting the corners to survive on their own and letting Mathieu play the intermediate passing game. Everyone else sells out to stop the rush, and they give up a lot of yards but do enough to give Mahomes and the offense a chance.
So, anyway. That’s one version of what it would look like.
I wouldn’t bet on any of this, by the way.
The Chiefs are good enough, and I do think the Patriots can be had. But the Ravens and Texans can also hurt the Chiefs in a lot of ways.
At the moment, the Chiefs look like a first-round playoff loss.
But the moment doesn’t matter. What matters is the moments in January, and on that we’re at the same place we’ve always been:
The Chiefs have enough to make the Super Bowl, but they have to be healthy, and they have to clean up some very stupid mistakes.
I do think Mahomes’ talent can be a trap. He is just so damn good he changes everything, and I do believe there are times that can be taken for granted, or planned for in a dangerous way.
But I don’t think the defense tries less hard when he’s playing, if that’s what you’re saying. They held the Colts to 19 points. They shut down the Raiders, and Mahomes went for over 400 in that game.
If anything, there are times I wonder if the defense is too obsessed with getting to Mahomes’ level.
Please let me explain.
You cannot rise to the NFL without some pride and arrogance. You cannot have pride and arrogance and be indifferent when all you hear is that the other side of the ball has to bail you out all the time.
Again: Mahomes’ talent can be a trap.
It’s a wonderful thing, and you wouldn’t trade it for the world, but it does have a way of sending everything into imbalance.
My strong belief is that part of the frustration over so many Packers and Vikings fans at Arrowhead in recent weeks was the idea that Chiefs fans sold their tickets because Mahomes wasn’t playing.
You don’t think that can rub some guys the wrong way? Especially the guys on defense?
I believe that’s why Chris Jones said what he said. If you watch the interview, he wasn’t even really asked about the fans. He brought it up on his own, and tried to do it in an encouraging way. I believe he did that with his teammates in mind, specifically teammates without the public juice he has voicing frustration that fans don’t want to come out to watch unless the rocket ship quarterback is going to be there.
Mahomes is such a good teammate that I don’t believe anyone holds it against him personally.
But you can see how the whole situation can create frustration or conflict.
So, anyway, I know this isn’t really where your question was leading but it’s where my mind goes. The guys on defense want desperately to do their share, and I believe that desire only rises when Mahomes is playing.
Whether that has any correlation to actual production on the field, I’m not as sure. But it’s absolutely part of the background.
In the game column, I referred to the play call as “questionable” and I meant that literally.
I’m stopping short of torching the call because I believe Andy Reid is a terrific play caller. Sometimes shooters get shot, that type of thing.
But I strongly disliked the call for at least three reasons.
Before we get to that, lets watch the play again:
OK. Here’s why I don’t like it:
1. The Chiefs were running the ball with success, and the Titans appeared gassed and on their heels. I don’t know that you can find someone more staunchly on Team Pass And Pass And Pass Some More when it comes to the Chiefs than me, but it seemed like that situation called for another run.
2. It’s basically a one-read call. Mahomes goes play action and then basically just stalls, waiting for the defense to clear so he can dump it off to Blake Bell for an easy gain.
Put it like this: with the game on the line, Reid made a call to put the ball into the hands of perhaps his least dynamic playmaker, the success of the whole thing resting almost entirely on fooling the defense. If the Titans read it correctly, the Chiefs had no chance.
Which leads us to the third reason I didn’t like the call:
3. The Chiefs had Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Demarcus Robinson and Damien Williams on the field. If you are the Titans, you’re begging the ball goes to Blake Bell. You’re also begging that you’re not put in a position to account for Mahomes’ agility or occasional transformation into a magician.
Coaches are supposed to put their players in positions to succeed. Reid does that more than most, but in this spot he put them in a position to succeed only if his play call could fool the Titans.
I understand that at least some of this is results based. If Reid was right and the play worked we wouldn’t be having this conversation. Maybe that’s unfair. I believe it to be the business Reid has chosen.
It’s worth remembering that the Chiefs iced the Ravens game with a screen to Darrel Williams. That was also a one-read play, similar to the call against the Titans, but third-and-9 is different than third-and-2, and the Titans saw that play on film and had to know the Chiefs might try something similar in a similar spot.
Questions like this come in at a surprising rate, so I want to answer as clearly as possible.
Patrick Mahomes isn’t going anywhere. He wants to be in Kansas City. The Chiefs need him in Kansas City. The NFL’s economic model and pay structure are such that he will make the most money in Kansas City. He can obviously land endorsement contracts here.
I know following the Royals has left a lot of scars on a lot of people here but Carlos Beltran never would’ve left the Chiefs, if you understand what I’m saying.
The Chiefs and Mahomes will almost certainly have the biggest contract in league history signed and done shortly after this season.
Well, sure, it’s different but I like those words you used: “doing your job and maintain trust and respect.”
That’s the whole thing. But I don’t think there’s a line between any of that to walk. It all goes together.
Those are grown men. They’re professionals. They know we have a job to do, and know we understand the same is true for them. There are some guys who are probably better not being approached after a loss, and others who are great.
But as long as you’re respectful and professional there aren’t many problems. That’s as true after a win as it is a loss, by the way.
Maybe the tone of your voice changes, but the words or purpose shouldn’t. You still want to know what’s in their heads, and what they see that the rest of us don’t. You want to know how a moment feels.
You want to know if that play was a miscommunication, or if this other one had to be ad-libbed, or whether that one play happened because of that other thing they saw earlier in the game.
All of that is the same after a win and a loss.
I think Mike would agree this joke would’ve landed better if the Chiefs beat the Titans, but it’s still worth including and I just want to emphasize what I said three answers up:
Jones was speaking for others, and as much as I believe it’s always a bad look for coaches or athletes to criticize fans I can also understand where they’re coming from.
Those guys looked around and had to at least wonder if the opposing fans were there because Chiefs fans only want to watch Patrick Mahomes.
The first thing I thought of when I read this question was this column from 2016, dumping on the Royals’ playoff chances after they had won eight straight and 11 of 12 and pulled to within 3 1/2 games of a wild card spot.
You can probably guess how well that went over.
Over the years I’ve written that the Chiefs would be sunk by defense, that Charlie Weis was a bad hire, that the Royals were making a fatal mistake in trying to rebuild and win simultaneously, and other stuff that if proven correct* would make for less fun in Kansas City sports.
*I’m realizing that the examples here each turned out well for me, but I promise I’m not intentionally cherry picking. Somewhere along the line, I must’ve developed the memory of a really bad cornerback who somehow sticks in the league, forgetting about all the plays I’ve given up and focusing only on the successes.
If I’m any good at all at this job it’s basically only because of two reasons:
▪ enough people trust me enough to tell me things.
▪ I write from my heart.
Now, there are times that those things can come in conflict, and we can talk about that sometime if you want but I don’t think that’s what you’re asking.
I’m sure there are times my opinion is colored by personal preferences. But I can’t think of a time I’ve written something just because I wanted it to be true.
Maybe that’s just confirmation that I have some blind spots but if I think of the people in this town I’ve talked to the most and come to like the most I can also think of a few columns they’ve hated and let me know about.
That’s how I see it, anyway.
I can only have this job if enough of you want to read what I write, and the only way enough of you want to read what I write is if I’m honest and come at this stuff without an agenda.
I’m far from perfect, but try as hard as I know. If you ever think I’m full of it, please reach out.
And, actually, I’ve been around long enough to know I didn’t have to include that last part.
I don’t have to lie.
I prefer 20 to 100 as strongly as I prefer beer to wine and I REALLY don’t like wine.
I want to say something else about all this, too. There’s a lot of winter whiners out there, and you can all go play in traffic because I don’t try to stomp on your fun when it’s 98 and humid and you’re all thrilled because at least you don’t need a coat?
Cold weather living is vastly superior to hot in ways that include but are not limited to not sweating while doing normal things like walking the kids to school and being comfortable in the kinds of clothes that are generally required for adulthood.
Like, I can get in my closet right now and put on clothes that will make me comfortable when it’s 15 degrees out.
Outside of being in a swimming pool in the shade there is not a damn thing I can do to be comfortable when it’s 100.
You know that’s true as much as I know it’s true.
The only thing I’ll give you is wintry mix. I don’t love a wintry mix. Love the snow, but wintry mix isn’t good for anyone.
But a wintry mix happens what, twice a winter? Maybe three times?
How often does humidity happen in the summer?
I’ve got strong opinions!
I started playing fantasy football in high school, so long ago that we had to keep all the stats by hand. Playing fantasy football is actually one reason I started following the whole league, instead of one team.
It’s a reason I watched games I never would’ve otherwise and, if I’m honest, a reason my interest in football went deeper.
So, I love fantasy football.
I’ve also hated fantasy football. Not just in the years where your team stinks, but there are times it’s just felt like an unnecessary hassle, like an obligation, and that if I didn’t spend unrealistic amounts of time on it I was going to lose to someone who did.
I’ve quit fantasy football, and sworn it off forever.
Then I got back into it, because I missed it. I wanted a reason to pay attention to the whole league again, to watch that other game. That’s what it was in the beginning, anyway. That was when I was single, no kids, nothing but time.
Now, I still enjoy it for all those reasons. But more than all of that I enjoy it as a crutch to stay in touch with friends. I know that’s pathetic. You shouldn’t need fantasy football to talk to your friends and, to be clear, I’d still be friends with these people with or without a silly game.
But it is another connection and it’s helped us all stay in touch through marriages and kids and divorces and moves to other parts of the country and world.
Every summer, seven of us take a trip together. All seven are in the same fantasy football league. That trip would probably exist without the league. I hope that trip would exist without the league, anyway.
But I can’t be 100 percent sure. And I don’t want to find out.
I have strong opinions about this too!
I believe Black Friday is the best day to get your tree for many reasons. I will list some of them here:
- ensures full respect of Thanksgiving, the calendar’s best holiday.
- gets you out of the house* the day after Thanksgiving, which everyone can use.
- *We’re a real tree family, but that’s a personal choice.
- unless you’re a sociopath it’s the first day you can play Christmas music, which gives the trip a little extra Griswold juice.
- gets you away from the TV and social media which is comprehensively obnoxious on Black Friday.
- you’re on the early side of tree selection, so you get a good one.
- you maximize your tree time.
- you’re basically always free, so you have time to decorate.
- let’s be honest, the only way you should be shopping on Black Friday is online anyway, so you can still squeeze that in.
That’s my take, anyway. But I respect your hustle, whatever your hustle.
This week I’m particularly grateful that I could make it to Chicago for the service for one of my mom’s best friends. Patty was an amazing woman, a schoolteacher who took students into her home during a strike, and who received letters every year giving her credit for a former student’s success. She served us dinner on her finest china at this really weird age where I was old enough to know I wasn’t old enough to be trusted with that stuff. She did anyway. I always knew when Patty was on the phone because she was the only person who made my mom laugh like that.
This story was originally published November 12, 2019 at 5:00 AM.