Mellinger Minutes: Chiefs hangover, Royals promise, college grads and fantasy
This was almost the biggest week in the history of Kansas City sports and instead I’m sitting here wondering how to fill the time.
Whit Merrifield signed an extension. That’s something. I hope you read the column. It’s decent.
There’s some college basketball. That might be fun. The NCAA basketball tournament is the best event in sports, so that’s cool, and then the Royals will take us through to the next training camp.
But, man. We’re all friends here so we should just say it out loud: sports around here are kind of boring at the moment, no?
There’s a hangover. There just is, and maybe we’ve found the first flaw in Patrick Mahomes’ game:
When he’s no longer playing it’s a real bummer.
The NFL’s offseason doesn’t officially begin for another six weeks. The Chiefs have some interesting business left, even after hiring Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator, and with where the franchise appears to be going that will be interesting to follow.
To a point.
There are bits from each of the local college basketball teams worth paying attention to, but none are overwhelmingly compelling. Mizzou just blew a 14-point lead with 2 minutes left at home, defying what was apparently a 99.8 percent chance of winning. K-State is in a three-way tie for first place in the Big 12, but that was a bad loss at A&M over the weekend, and there are stretches where they’re simply a tough watch. We’ll get into some reasons Kansas is hard to follow later.
Baseball, hurry up.
I do believe we might be in the beginning stages of seeing something special with the Royals, by the way. Adalberto Mondesi is very likely the most physically talented Royals player since — Lord help me — Bo Jackson. Lorenzo Cain is close, I suppose. Bubba Starling might have a case, if he’s ever called up. Carlos Beltran had a grace that’s hard to quantify.
But beginning with Bo, I’m not sure anyone with as much power has been as fast, or that anyone as fast has had as much power. Add in potential high-end defense at shortstop and this could be the first full season of a career that would help change the franchise.
We’ll talk about the plate discipline some other time.
Anyway.
One piece of housekeeping: You probably saw where Lynn Worthy is our new Royals beat writer. He’s already done some good stuff, and if you haven’t already, give him a follow and continue to look for his work.
This week’s eating recommendation is the shrimp spiedini at Garozzo’s, and the reading recommendation is Jeff Schultz on the past, the present, and the soul of Scott Pioli.
Please give me a follow on Twitter and Facebook, and as always, thanks for your help and thanks for reading.
Well, of course you do. What’s your option, to not watch the Super Bowl, like some sort of communist? So, yes, you should still have your party.
You will still have your party, and at some point a weird thought will cross your mind because you’ll remember how after the 2014 season the Chiefs did not make the playoffs but beat both Super Bowl teams so everyone talked about how close the Chiefs were, but now, the Chiefs are a combined 0-3 against the Super Bowl teams but it feels like they are much closer to the Super Bowl.
Sports are weird like that.
One of the themes of this space is a pushback against the tendency of absolutism, so here comes a spot where we point out that two things can be true simultaneously.
First, the Chiefs should have been able to win a home game to get to the Super Bowl, and had a dozen ways they could’ve done that, from the presumptive MVP quarterback hitting a wide open Damien Williams to Dee Ford lining up onsides to creating even a rumor of pressure on Tom Brady to not being as predictable as sunrise defensively to winning a stupid coin flip.
Second, the Chiefs had an objectively successful season, getting closer to the Super Bowl than they’ve been in 25 years, with a quarterback who went from a bit of a project to the best in the sport way ahead of schedule.
I wrote a column on what the Chiefs will and should try to do this offseason, and my kids need to eat, so I hope you read it. I’ll try not to rehash too much from that, but here’s a wider point that has been easy to forget:
The Chiefs have not been this well-positioned in a generation. They just finished their most exciting season in recent memory, with every opportunity to make next season even more successful.
The most important offseason in years is underway.
Part of the conflicting emotions is that the Chiefs basically skipped a step. Their 2018 success was a year ahead of what the organization had expected, and maybe two. Everything happened faster than the plan, and by everything, basically we mean “Patrick Mahomes.”
That’s a tremendous advantage, because it means the Chiefs can operate from a point of certainty that they otherwise might not have.
The contract extensions that they will seek with Tyreek Hill and Chris Jones this offseason can be structured in specific ways to give the team flexibility when they’ll need it.
The extension they’ll see with Mahomes will come sooner than they originally planned*, and at a higher price, but that’ll be the best money the Chiefs have spent in many years.
* They could do this as soon as next offseason, but they have a lot of options here. Mahomes is under control for three more years, if you count the fifth-year option on his rookie contract. So they could wait until after 2020, or even 2021. They’re in the driver’s seat on that.
Anyway, we’re getting off the point here.
Yes, you should and will still have that Super Bowl party. And when you do, you’ll have the real and honest feeling that next year’s party might be for a Chiefs game.
I’m not going back to check, but this is the first Royals question we’ve had here in a while.
Two weeks until pitchers and catches report.
Fifty-eight days until opening day.
Baseball is coming, and it should hurry.
OK. Sorry. About your question. Seventy-five is probably ambitious, but certainly possible. The Vegas numbers I’ve seen are around 70, but really, there’s not that much difference between a team that wins 70 and one that wins 75. That’s less than one game a month, and either total would be a jump of more than 10 games.
You probably remember that the Royals finished 20-14 and were 31-36 after the All-Star break. Those are arbitrary chunks of the season, but indicative of a general truth that the Royals aren’t nearly as bad and hopeless as a 58-104 record would indicate.
They will probably struggle to score (again) and the pitching staff has both potential and question marks (again). If you’re optimistic in the big picture, you have to believe that Danny Duffy will be much better than his 1.490 WHIP and 4.88 ERA over 155 innings last year.
They’ll be fast as lightning, a point that might best be illustrated by the fact that Whit Merrifield led the league in stolen bases last year and will be the fourth fastest man on the 2019 roster, behind Billy Hamilton, Adalberto Mondesi, and Terrance Gore.
The Royals are nipping at the margins again, going after what they believe to be baseball’s undervalued traits. It’s a philosophy that was at the core of their last rebuild, and if nothing else might fill some highlight reels — Alex Gordon, Billy Hamilton, Merrifield, Sal Perez and Mondesi are all premium defenders.
The problem figures to be how often they can get those good athletes on base. The Royals finished 12th in the American League in on-base percentage, which is far too low for an offense without much power. Hamilton will get a lot of plate appearances, and he has a career .298 on-base percentage.
But this season won’t be about winning or even contending in the American League Central as much as it’ll be about a roster built for supporting the pitchers and figuring out who will be around when the expectations raise.
That means we’re back to what used to be a familiar spot for the Royals. Good enough for legitimate hope, but not good enough that the success or failure of the season will be judged by wins and losses.
OK, fine.
Whit Merrifield is a star, even if nobody knows it, a rare talent who is good enough to lead the league in both steals and hits and play multiple positions well. Sal Perez is still just 28 years old, with a proven power bat and presence behind the plate. Alex Gordon was better last year than a lot of people are willing to see, and will be particularly motivated in what could be his last season with the Royals or even in the big leagues. Ryan O’Hearn hit 12 homers in just 170 plate appearances, which prorates out to 40 over a full season. Jorge Soler will be back, and presumably healthy.
The pitching staff lacks star power, but does have more depth and balance than past versions. Brad Keller was terrific as a rookie. Jakob Junis showed the sorts of flashes you can believe in. Duffy should be better. Richard Lovelady is first in line among prospects who could contribute.
This isn’t a team that will make the postseason, or even be particularly hopeful of that. But the group that will open the season is largely the group that played with much more energy and effectiveness in the second half, and should be worth more than the OK-fine-there’s-nothing-else-on attention of last year.
The 2019 Royals: Better Than Many Summer Reruns.
Is that an endorsement?
Oh, man, Ron is really cutting to the heart of it here.
My thoughts on Peters are layered, which has always made expressing them a little difficult because most of the takes on him are on an extreme.
I believe Peters is an exceptional talent, a devoted player willing to put in all the work to be great. I believe that the Chiefs have positioned themselves as an organization where those types of players can be their best, and their failure to get that from him is a stain on what they believe themselves to be.
All that said, I’ve come to believe that — no matter who you blame — it just wasn’t going to work with Peters here. That’s doubly true if Bob Sutton was going to be the defensive coordinator, and no other major changes were made.
A year ago, the Chiefs were basically faced with a choice between Peters and Sutton. They chose Sutton, and now they have neither.
My point here is that as much as I like Peters as a player, I believe he’d hit his expiration date here. He was not the difference.
The difference may very well have been in retaining Sutton. He should have been fired a year ago. They tried to make it work. Reid is extremely loyal, and that’s one of his great strengths, but in this case proved to be a fault.
The organization thought it was still a year or two away, so seeing if Sutton could be more effective without certain negative voices on the roster or coaching staff made sense from a specific perspective.
As it turned out, Sutton’s defense was even worse, and all it needed was to be marginally better for the Chiefs to have been in the Super Bowl.
Mahomes is so good, and in such a terrific situation for him to succeed, that the Chiefs can realistically expect to have a lot more chances.
But depending on how the next few years go, Reid’s decision to retain Sutton after the Titans collapse might be one that hangs over the franchise and fans.
Speaking of ...
... the cap situation would actually be worse if they make or win a Super Bowl, but I get your point, because if you win Super Bowls you can accept a certain level of cap pressure.
The NFL, particularly for teams that regularly compete, is basically a constant rinse-and-repeat cycle of finding cheap labor, picking out the guys worth paying, and then replacing the rest with more cheap labor.
The key is in not missing with the big contracts, because if you do you end up with Eric Berry being the league’s highest paid safety while playing a total of four games (one full) over a two-year span.
Pushing the big money to later always makes sense in the moment, but that’s also how you end up with Justin Houston as a $21.1 million cap hit after his 30th birthday when he’s still a good player but clearly diminished.
That said, Tyreek Hill is a good bet to be worth the money long term. He’s already among the best at his position, will turn 25 in March, and is the perfect fit for both Mahomes and the offense.
If a contract extension can both lock him up long-term and maintain some flexibility in the short-term, then that’s the easiest decision an organization can make. Chris Jones is in a similar situation, though he does have some inconsistencies and comes out on many run downs.
The bill always comes due, and we haven’t even mentioned Mahomes’ eventual extension. But this is the way the system is set up.
If you’re saddled with big cap hits down the road, it’s either your fault or the result of significant on-field success.
Well, one more time I’ll direct you to the column on Spagnuolo. Vahe also had some interesting stuff here, including how far he goes back with Reid.
But I’ll give you the quickie version of why this makes sense. It comes in two parts.
First, Reid believes the Chiefs are too close to a Super Bowl to take a major risk. This kind of analysis is flawed as a predictor for the future, but literally, if Dee Ford lines up onsides the Chiefs are still playing. If the defense can get one more 3rd down stop the Chiefs are likely still playing. Reid knows Spagnuolo, respects him, and has to believe that this is a major upgrade. But even if it’s a small upgrade, the move makes more sense in his mind than a risk with someone he doesn’t know.
Second, Spagnuolo is said to have a few specific traits that Sutton lacked. He is expected to be more consistent and diligent about holding assistants and players accountable, and will be more aggressive with schemes and play calls.
That’s a pretty good fit.
There are no perfect candidates, and you’re right, statistically his 2016 Giants defense looks like an island surrounded by mediocrity. The Super Bowl win over the 18-0 Patriots after the 2007 season was a long time ago, and this was a good enough job that Reid could have hired just about anyone he wanted.
So I’m not here pounding the drum that Reid knocked this out of the park.
I’m here telling you the hire makes a lot of sense, on a lot of levels.
Before we answer, let’s just put it on the record that if you paid money to see that movie, that’s your fault. You have nobody to blame. Don’t come here looking for sympathy.
There’s no blanket way to answer this, and anybody who tries to give you a blanket answer is lying or oversimplifying. Because the same way the next 53 Chiefs fans you meet will have different opinions about the playoff loss, the 53 actual Chiefs players on the roster have different opinions and feelings about it.
I didn’t see any Chiefs players smiling, but I’d also be willing to bet that the most devastated person in the stadium was somewhere in the stands, and not the locker room.
This is so hard to articulate, and something is always lost in translation, but I’m a sucker so I’ll try anyway.
Athletes generally take the outcomes of games more personally; fans generally take them more emotionally.
The outcomes of these games affect athletes in ways that fans usually don’t think about in the moment — their ability to provide for their family, their career outlook, the way they’re remembered in a sport they’ve devoted their lives toward.
The outcomes of these games affect fans in ways that athletes often either forget or don’t think about in the moment — the pure and passionate consumption of an institution of life that right or wrong seeps into relationships and memories and often self-esteem.
Man, typing those words, I believe all of it but it does make me realize we probably need a disclaimer: none of this is healthy.
The stress of an athlete knowing he has a tiny window and split-second decisions to make a lasting impact in his profession and for his family. The disproportionate importance that all of us put on sports* to the point that something meant for fun and that we have no control over impacts our lives so fully and often negatively.
* Yes, I’m a sports writer and believe this. I know. You don’t have to say it. My life is a tangled web.
So, sure. There are some athletes who can compartmentalize the result of a game from the process of preparation and move on to the offseason, perhaps even grateful to be out of the stress and with family. There are also many fans who can walk out of Arrowhead Stadium even after a heartbreaking playoff loss and realize that was the most fun Chiefs season in quite some time.
There are also some, um, other perspectives.
Can we all just shake the nonsense and agree that if Patrick Mahomes throws for 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns next year that’s pretty dang good?
And can we all just shake the nonsense and agree that if the Chiefs lose in the AFC Championship Game again that it’ll be disappointing, sure, and mean that something is still lacking from Andy Reid’s Hall of Fame case but doesn’t actually mean he’s a bad coach?
I know we’ve all had varying roles in creating this weird sports ecosystem that demands debates and takes and criticisms and all of that, but it’s OK sometimes to step back and see a broader picture.
But even within that framework, I’m not sure I agree with the premise.
No matter what happens next year, Reid will have his job in 2020 and be thought of as a very good NFL coach.
No matter what happens next year, Mahomes will be a franchise quarterback with his prime and (likely) the NFL’s richest contract in front of him.
Pressure, to me, is with someone like Philip Rivers. The opportunities are dwindling. Tom Brady is still the king of the AFC, and next in line appears to have already arrived, and playing in the same division.
Rivers will live a good post-football life no matter what, but in terms of what he has to gain, there’s more pressure on him with each of his remaining opportunities simply because Mahomes has more of them left.
It’s also entirely possible that this is another example of me taking one of these questions too literally.
I believe the Pro Bowl should die and I don’t mean that as a #taek or dismissively. I mean it literally and honestly and from the heart. I don’t believe the NFL benefits from the Pro Bowl. I don’t see it as entertaining, or an example of what the NFL should be at the highest level.
I believe the NFL should scrap the idea completely, and replace it with what would essentially be a made-for-TV celebration of the sport.
That would mean a more thoughtful way of determining the postseason individual honor that could still be called “Pro Bowl” selection if you wanted. Eric Fisher had a decent season, but when he’s selected and Mitchell Schwartz isn’t you have a problem.
The league could combine that with an over-the-top awards show, the Saturday before Super Bowl week, so that players from the teams still playing could be there.
Honor the best moments, the best players, the best offensive lines, the best secondaries, the best philanthropists, all of it. Make it a celebration of the sport’s best, not a watered-down, nobody-cares example of a game.
Of course, the Pro Bowl averaged eight million viewers* which is more than most of the NBA playoffs so it’s not going anywhere.
* WHO ARE YOU PEOPLE?!?
But put it in New Orleans if you have to keep it. More stuff should be in New Orleans.
COULDN’T. You mean couldn’t. Sorry. I’m that guy.
OK. Where were we. Yes. KU basketball*.
* Mizzou or K-State fans will note that Tanner didn’t say basketball. It’s just assumed. Because he said KU. Maybe Les Miles will change that someday. Today is not that day.
They’re a little boring, and more than a little frustrating at times. The pieces don’t fit as well as they normally do. The most interesting player to watch had a season-ending injury. The De Sousa thing hangs.
No matter what, it’s hard to envision this team being as successful or fun to watch as last year’s.
I know you’re not alone. This was the topic of a recent text thread with some KU fans. Past teams always had someone you could focus on, a player whose talent or story or both transcended the pageantry and built-in appeal of college basketball.
Last year it was Devonte Graham. Before that it was Frank Mason, Josh Jackson, or Perry Ellis, or Andrew Wiggins, or Joel Embiid, or Ben McLemore, or Jeff Withey, or Thomas Robinson, or Tyshawn Taylor, and on and on it goes.
Dedric Lawson is a very good player, but without that same appeal. Devon Dotson might be there someday, but not right now. Lagerald Vick is a weird marriage of convenience.
They’re also, well, lets just face it. They’re not that good. Not Kansas good, anyway. They’ll probably win a share of another league title, and probably play into the second weekend of the tournament, but it’s hard to envision this being a team you remember.
That’s the way I see it, anyway. Maybe you have other reasons.
Well, this depends on what you want out of the trip. Because it’s a different answer depending on whether you want to just watch the Royals, or go around to different ballparks in the Phoenix area, or whether you want to mix in some golf or mountain climbing or whatever.
Honestly, unless the price is way less, don’t stay in Surprise. Or anywhere close. Surprise is strip malls, basic chain restaurants, and nothing after like 9 p.m. Stay in Peoria, at least. Scottsdale or Phoenix if you can.
There are a lot of good restaurants around Phoenix. I really like Durant’s for steak, and there are a million good dive Mexican places. Pizzeria Bianco is way overrated.
The Cactus League is much more manageable now than it used to be when teams were in Tempe, but the Valley is still enormous, and the drive from, say, Surprise to Mesa still well over an hour even with no traffic but, to be fair, I’m only guessing on that because there is NEVER no traffic.
Look at the schedule for the days you’ll be there and figure out which games you’ll want to go to, which should influence where you want to stay.
If you want to golf, I can’t really help you there, but I hear there are a lot of nice courses. I’m guessing bad courses can’t stay in business there, so just pick the cheapest or closest one.
Camelback Mountain is worth doing if you’re into that sort of thing and find an open day. It’s the perfect level of difficulty. Easy enough that you know you can do it, hard enough that you can fool yourself into thinking you really kicked its ass. The view from up top is nice, too. I know people who’ve carved out a day to do the Grand Canyon and said it was worth it.
If you’re an autograph person, get there early on the side fields, or hang in the first row early before games. I believe players are generally much more accommodating there than during the regular season.
Also, if you rent a car, give yourself an extra half hour or so on your way back to the airport. That place is a mess. If you get through and have extra time before your flight, find Chelsea’s Kitchen.
Look, the first thing you need to do is let every jerk in your league know you have a life and a job and other stuff going on so whatever they get from you is a bonus. If they complain, offer them the job. When they decline, tell them that’s right, and shut your mouth.
There is simply no upside in being commissioner. Unless it comes with a free entry fee, or some built-in way to annoy your friends.
I have played fantasy sports for most of my life, starting way back in high school. I have never once been the commissioner of my league, and I consider that one of my greatest life accomplishments.
So I must be one of the worst people you could possibly ask. Because my advice is to not take the job.
But since you’re there already, and apparently enthusiastic about doing your best, the advice I’d offer is to keep it manageable. Carve out a certain period of the day, certain days of the week. Do your stuff then, and don’t let it eat into the rest of your life.
The best part of fantasy sports, at least for me, is a reason to keep in touch with your friends. If you’re not doing it already, a weekly email with results and a few insults for your buddies never hurt anyone. On the right week, the thread will stay hot until the next one.
Don’t take it too seriously. And I mean what I said. Don’t take any crap.
The advice is as different as the person looking for it. Depends on what you want to do, where you are in the country, and what you want out of the job.
Generally, I always tell people this: sports media can be a really bad way to make a living. Especially in the beginning, it’s doing the stuff nobody else wants to do, or the stuff that people have graduated away from. You’re left with, well, what’s left.
If you’re not prepared for that, this can be one of the worst ways to pay your bills. You’ll feel left out, and like you were fooled.
If you’re prepared for it, this can be the best way I know to make a living.
One of the tricks to sticking around is understanding that there are more people who want to do this than there are jobs available. You are always replaceable, which means you have to fool people into believing you’re not.
Do something other people aren’t doing. Whatever it is you do — write a feature, anchor 3 minutes, do an hour of talk radio — make absolutely sure you are not wasting anyone’s time. Make sure you’re worth it. That can be with a fact that they didn’t know, with a story that makes them smile, with a joke, with something that makes them feel ... something.
Whatever. It doesn’t have to be the same thing every time and, matter of fact, it shouldn’t be the same thing every time. Just make sure you give your reader or listener or viewer a reason to come back.
One more quick point. Most of these jobs are easy to do terribly, and difficult to do well. You have to be willing to put in that work, even while knowing that work usually isn’t going to be noticed. Actually, in a lot of cases, the trick is to work enough that people think you’re not working. That it’s easy. Because that means it’s easy for them to read, or listen, or watch, which means they’re more likely to come back.
Don’t take the easy way out. Everybody wants to write a column with a Big Take, or say something cheap for attention on the radio, but you have to understand that’s the easy thing and anyone can do easy.
What they can’t or won’t always do is report. Make calls. Have relationships. Make a regular and honest effort to understand the people important in your market, even and especially when you might not agree with them.
One last point. Don’t take everything I or anyone else says as the answer. None of us have the answer. I don’t think there really is an answer. A lot of us have parts of it, though, and that’s usually only because we’ve taken answers from others and molded them into answers that made sense for us.
Do the same.
This week, I’m particularly grateful for the timer on the coffee machine. Get it set up the night before, hit a button, and when I walk downstairs the kitchen is like our own little Roasterie. Neither adult in my house is anything close to a morning person, so the fewer steps required the better.