What Steve Spagnuolo’s hire means for the Chiefs ... and six remaining offseason needs
Patrick Mahomes is so good, so fast, that he essentially got his old college coach fired — how could Kliff Kingsbury not do more with a generational quarterback at Texas Tech?
Mahomes is so good, so fast, that he essentially got Kingsbury an enormous promotion — if Kingsbury was that good with Mahomes, maybe he can help Josh Rosen as the Arizona Cardinals’ new coach.
And, now, Mahomes is so good, so fast, that he essentially got Steve Spagnuolo hired as the Chiefs’ new defensive coordinator — the team is so close to the Super Bowl that coach Andy Reid went with a safe hire.
That’s the way it looks, anyway. And that’s not a criticism. Reid went with someone he knows, respects and (most importantly) feels can command respect both on the coaching staff and in the locker room.
Spagnuolo is a better fit than you might think, too. Outside of 2016, his most recent defenses have struggled statistically, so it’s easy to be skeptical. But context is important, too. He was in New Orleans cleaning up after the Bountygate mess, and the Giants are essentially a disaster — they traded their best defender midway through last season and their remaining players largely quit.
Spagnuolo runs a version of the 4-3 defense, which is a significant change from former coordinator Bob Sutton’s 3-4. It’s also a better fit for the Chiefs’ personnel. Anthony Hitchens, Derrick Nnadi, Breeland Speaks, Dorian O’Daniel and Justin Houston (especially at this point in his career) are each better fits for Spagnuolo’s system than Sutton’s.
The situation now for outside linebacker Dee Ford is less clear, but when asked whether Ford fits the 4-3, one league personnel evaluator texted: “Yep. Watch him in sub (packages), and there’s a place for anybody who gets after the QB like him.”
Strategically, it’s an interesting hire, because in some ways it looks like the Chiefs have been preparing for this. Hitchens played well in the 4-3 in Dallas, and came to Kansas City as a free agent. Nnadi was widely viewed as a 1-technique out of Florida State, and Speaks was basically out of position as a 3-4 outside linebacker instead of a 4-3 end.
But the more interesting and telling part of the hire has nothing to do with X’s and O’s. Spagnuolo has a reputation for creating high-energy, aggressive game plans, and expecting lots of accountability. Assuming he brings some assistants with him, this is essentially the culture change the Chiefs said they were going for after last season.
This was a terrific job, and the Chiefs were flooded with interest. Reid had his choice of many names, with many profiles. He could have gone with a top college coordinator, or an up-and-coming pro coach. There are sound arguments for either route.
But going with Spagnuolo is a sign that Reid craved certainty and stability. The Chiefs don’t have to be great defensively. Average will do. They almost certainly made a significant upgrade here, both schematically and otherwise. But even if it’s simply a marginal improvement, their rocket-ship offense is probably enough to make it work.
Even on defense, and even with coaching staff hires, it all circles back to Mahomes.
The firing of Sutton and hiring of a new defensive coordinator were the Chiefs two most important decisions of the offseason. The Chiefs’ future and Reid’s legacy will be shaped by how it works out.
But there is still much to be done, and no margin for error. Salary cap-tracking websites Over The Cap and Spotrac indicate the Chiefs have about $36 million in space for next year, but that number is likely high by at least $10 million because of incentives and various other “small print” payments.
Here, then, are five important steps for the Chiefs to maximize the gift of having the league’s presumptive MVP quarterback on a rookie contract:
1. Sign receiver Tyreek Hill to a contract extension.
This is No. 1 for a reason. There’s an old saying about the value of keeping your strengths your strengths, and this should be a relatively non-contentious negotiation.
The Chiefs value Hill’s unique skills and see him as the perfect match for Patrick Mahomes’ arm strength. Hill is happy in Kansas City and knows he can both win and be a focal point of the league’s highest-scoring offense here. No other team can offer him so much.
It will be a big number. Odell Beckham signed for five years and $95 million with $65 million in guarantees, a deal Hill will likely want to match or exceed. But the marriage makes too much sense on both sides to end with anything other than a contract.
2. Sign defensive lineman Chris Jones to a contract extension.
Like Hill, Jones will be entering the last season of his rookie contract. The Chiefs don’t have to make a deal with either. They could try to negotiate after the 2019 season and could use the franchise tag on one of them.
But signing both makes too much sense. Jones is still just 24 and is already established as one of the league’s best defensive linemen. He is consistently disruptive, with the instincts to make game-wrecking plays fairly regularly. He’s not a perfect player and often comes out on rushing downs, but he is a homegrown difference-maker and, assuming he likes the new coordinator, should be motivated to stay.
The rest of the offseason begins when the Chiefs know whether they can sign Hill and Jones long-term, and for how much. Because the numbers will dictate how much money the Chiefs can move around, and how much flexibility they have with the rest of their roster.
3. Create cap space, if necessary.
The Chiefs are essentially stuck with safety Eric Berry. They could cut him in March and save less than $2 million of his $12 million salary, or cut him in June and spread the cap hit over two seasons. Neither is an attractive option.
The Chiefs basically have to pay him and hope that a probable offseason surgery and the ultimately disappointing drama of 2018 prove enough to get whatever Berry’s best is in 2019.
To improve the defense and create cap space, the Chiefs will have to look elsewhere.
They will almost certainly approach Houston about renegotiating his contract. He’s due for a $21.1 million cap hit. He is still an effective player, but he’s no longer the force of nature who earned a $101 million contract with $32.5 in full guarantees after the 2014 season.
Even if his contract was “only” renegotiated down to his open market value, Houston might prefer to enter free agency, where a new contract would include more money up front. It’s worth looking into, but probably a long shot.
Other renegotiation candidates might include offensive linemen Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz and tight end Travis Kelce. The last two, particularly, aren’t underperforming their contracts. But both have deals with some wiggle room now, and should be in the team’s long-term plans.
4. Retain Dee Ford.
This is not a certainty, and will require creativity. The Chiefs could use their franchise tag on Ford, which was about $15 million last season for linebackers. But the downside for teams using the tag is the money is not flexible — in the Chiefs’ case, it would eat up well more than half their available cap space.
So this is more financial jigsaw puzzle than football decision. The Chiefs likely have a plan that includes keeping both Houston and Ford, but the process of getting there is not entirely under their control.
They’ll have to be smart and creative in potential extensions for Hill and/or Jones, exhaust any possibility of renegotiating Houston, and see what’s possible with Ford.
No matter what, this is a critical point of the offseason. The single most important thing a defender can do is disrupt the quarterback, and Ford does this exceptionally well. His 13 sacks tied for seventh overall in the NFL, and he was Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated pass rusher among edge rushers while leading that group with 78 total pressures.
5. Fix the secondary.
Kendall Fuller is a productive, reliable cornerback, and one of the players who should benefit from the arrival of a new coordinator. Charvarius Ward looks the part of a solid corner with upside. Safety Jordan Lucas is interesting. Safety Armani Watts will miss the development from an injury that wiped out virtually his entire rookie season but retains ability and potential.
Depending on what happens with Steven Nelson, who is now a free agent, that leaves the Chiefs in need of at least two cornerbacks, and at least two safeties. They will target the secondary in the draft, especially with their first three picks, though the class is said to be loaded at another position of need: defensive line.
6. Continue to tilt everything toward Mahomes.
This is really the most important big-picture piece, and as much as anything else it is what will determine the franchise’s future. That’s making sure that if offensive lineman Mitch Morse isn’t re-signed in free agency a suitable replacement is found. That’s making sure this offseason is spent refining and expanding on what Mahomes did as a first-year starter. That’s searching for another tight end, ensuring the defense is OK taking risks, and that the offense is prepared to push the pedal on fourth down.
The Chiefs have not been this well-positioned in a generation. They just finished their most exciting season in recent memory, with every opportunity to make next season even more successful.
The most important offseason in years is underway.
This story was originally published January 25, 2019 at 1:35 PM.