The Royals' most encouraging part of a mostly miserable season

In the moment a losing season or a lost season can feel like a distinction without a difference, and maybe that's how this ends up, because there have been times when Kyle Davies and Felipe Paulino looked like pieces of a future Royals rotation, too.

So, you know. Disclaimers and all that.

But maybe this is different. This sure feels different. Looks different.

Pitches different.

Brad Keller is a 6-foot-5 Georgian with a mid-90s fastball. He is not yet 23 years old. He finished last season with a 5.03 ERA in Class AA for the Diamondbacks. He began this season as a Rule 5 reliever — essentially baseball's version of a clearance sale — and now already he is the single most encouraging thing to come from a mostly dreadful season.

On Monday, against two Hall of Famers and the 10th-best offense in baseball, Keller's best day yet — seven innings, two hits, two walks, six strikeouts, no runners past first base and no balls to the outfield until the sixth inning.

"I have no idea why this guy was available," Royals pitching coach Cal Eldred said. "None."

This was Keller's fifth and most complete start in his transition out of the bullpen. He's thrown 25 2/3 innings, allowed 24 hits, seven runs, 11 walks and struck out 17. That's a 2.49 ERA, and giving up a .250 average and a .271 slugging percentage across an admittedly small sample size.

Keller is a reminder of how baseball surprises, and of flimsy rebuilding plans that are heavy on specifics and light on flexibility. Last winter, the Diamondbacks did not believe him worthy of their 40-man roster. This spring, the Royals hoped they might have a serviceable relief pitcher.

Now, they see a young pitcher with more than enough velocity on two fastballs, a compounding slider, and a developing changeup and curveball.

"Exactly what I expected out of him," manager Ned Yost said.

Yost is endlessly positive about his players, but even he doesn't mean that literally. Or, at least, he doesn't mean the results. Nobody does this every time, but the start on Monday against a strong lineup is a template for the best version of Keller.

He struck out at least one hitter with each of the his three pitches — a sinking fastball that moves down and in on right handers, a four-seamer that stays up with a tick more velocity, and a slider that bites hard and down.

Keller recorded 21 outs — six strikeouts, and 12 groundouts, including three double plays. This is a key to his pitch profile. His command is good enough that nearly three of every four pitches is a fastball, with the slider serving to keep hitters honest. He has a changeup, too, though he isn't throwing it in games yet.

"Work on it in the bullpen," Keller said. "Then compete in the games."

That's a potentially important point, too, because it's a sign that Keller is well equipped to maintain this success and perhaps even improve. A changeup would play well off the fastballs and slider, further handcuffing hitters from expecting any one pitch. Eldred expressed confidence in that pitch, saying Keller's ability to command it was a major part of why they wanted to transition him to the rotation.

Keller will be cautious in introducing the pitch, knowing his success already depends heavily on his ability to throw strikes consistently. If he's in the strike zone, staying on or ahead of hitters, his attacking style plays well. When he falls behind, that's when the trouble comes.

Even during this success in the rotation the walk numbers are too high. He averaged nearly four walks per nine innings last year at Class AA. His stuff is good enough to induce weak contact and misses in the strike zone. The key is keeping it in the strike zone.

"He doesn’t get nervous," Yost said. "He just doesn’t. It’s not that he has to avoid getting nervous. He doesn’t get nervous. He’s got all the confidence in the world in his abilities. He knows when he steps on that mound, he’s gonna be on the attack."

Again, some of this is Yost playing his role as swagger coach, particularly with young players, and particularly in a season that's gone so wrong.

Because Keller does get nervous. Of course he does. He's 22, and before this season had never pitched above Class AA. Fail here, now, and he goes back to the grind of waiting in the minor leagues. That's a lot to take on.

So what matters here is how he deals with those nerves. How he blocks that out, not just transitioning to the major leagues but now into a rotation.

The Royals think they can be good again, and relatively soon. Keller is under club control through at least 2023, which extends beyond the internal expectation of competitive baseball.

There was a time he projected as a potential cornerstone of the next dominant bullpen, and that was more than enough for a Rule 5 pick.

But the more this season goes, the more it looks like he could be a starter. His size, velocity, and stuff line up with a fourth or fifth starter. When he throws strikes, it ticks up a bit, and if he can bring the changeup along and continue to navigate the emotional stress of the big leagues then the Royals really have found something.

If all of that happens, no matter what else, this losing season will not be lost.

This story was originally published June 25, 2018 at 7:45 PM with the headline "The Royals' most encouraging part of a mostly miserable season."