Here are some intriguing scenarios the Chiefs could see in the NFL Draft
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Chiefs hold No. 9 pick, gaining an earlier say in draft decisions.
- Team should be willing to trade back to acquire future draft capital.
- Franchise should weigh immediate needs against value of future first-round picks.
For eight years running, the NFL Draft clock has ticked for at least two hours — and usually quite a bit longer — before reaching the team in Kansas City.
The Chiefs have been at the mercy of the most of the league, even the entire league, before making their initial pick.
A rare spot in the top 10 — No. 9, to be exact — will give the Chiefs an earlier say in things this month.
But it will not erase the unpredictability.
That’s part of the beauty of the draft, though it’s also part of the extra leg work. Even at No. 9, the Chiefs still have plenty for which to prepare, and that includes the unexpected.
As I cycled through the PFF mock draft simulator, I was occasionally greeted with some tricky scenarios — occasionally greeted with some unexpected scenarios.
So why not walk through them here, right?
Scenario: The top tackle is still on the board
Let’s start with one of the most interesting scenarios.
According to Grinding the Mocks, which compiles mock drafts across the country, Miami’s Francis Mauigoa is the only tackle projected in the top-10. That’s subject to change, obviously. Heck, that’s the purpose of this exercise — how to adjust when these subject-to-change moments actually, well, change.
In 22% of my 100 spins through the simulator, Mauigoa was available at No. 9.
Now what?
The Chiefs might have their tackle depth chart in place for 2026 — with Josh Simmons on the left side and Jaylon Moore on the right — but Simmons left the team for personal reasons for a month last year, and Moore is on the second year of a two-year contract.
Mauigoa played right tackle at Miami, and he doesn’t turn 21 until June. The Chiefs could do worse than trying to shore up both tackle spots for years to come.
But here’s the most intriguing part of this particular scenario: Mauigoa being available might be one of the few scenarios in which teams are champing at the bit to trade up to the spot. I don’t anticipate the Chiefs will receive as many calls for their pick as people would like to think, but Mauigoa is a player who could change that. Several teams need a tackle and would relish getting their top choice at a premium position at No. 9.
The Chiefs should be open to moving out of the pick, particularly because the luxury of selecting in the top 10 is teams often overpay to move up.
If not? It depends on who else is still available, but big-picture, the Chiefs shouldn’t shy away from drafting for the long-term rather than a quick fix. After all, they won’t find a cheaper tackle in free agency a year from now.
The verdict: Listen to calls, or make the pick
Scenario: Caleb Downs is available
This is the most frequent of the player-might-be-available scenarios we’ll discuss. Caleb Downs, an Ohio State safety, is on the board with the Chiefs on the clock in nearly half of the drafts I simulated for the exercise.
He is a terrific talent who will be ready to start from his team’s first snap. He’s a two-time All-American who can move around the defensive backfield a bit, but no matter where he’s lined up, he plays as though he’s one step ahead of the offense. There are players with higher ceilings, but he might have the highest floor.
So why not jump at him?
Well, it’s the positional value.
This is the first time the Chiefs have picked in the top 10 since drafting Patrick Mahomes in 2017. These opportunities have been non-existent since that day, and the objective is to make them non-existence for another decade.
The Chiefs need to take advantage of the rarity with a premium position, not draft a position they’ve seemed to replace with relative ease — and at a relatively cheap price, too.
The verdict: Pass
Scenario: Jeremiyah Love falls to No. 9
This is the least frequent of the player-might-be-available scenarios we’ll discuss. But it did happen over the 100 spins.
Three times.
Jeremiyah Love is a do-everything running back in a draft that is thin at the position. But the Chiefs just heavily invested at the position, giving Kenneth Walker the fourth-richest running back contract in the NFL. Love also plays a position that is cheaper in free agency than the others in which the Chiefs should be targeting this draft.
It would be tempting to land one of the few blue-chip prospects in the draft, but the Chiefs should use another team’s temptation and find value later.
The verdict: Trade the pick
Scenario: Double-up at a position
If you’re inclined to take an edge rusher, wide receiver or cornerback at No. 9 — three plausible targets — it’s amazing how frequently the best player on the board at No. 29 is the same position.
Then what?
All of those positions have multiple starers on the field, so it’s not like you need just one.
But the Chiefs do have more than one need.
They ought to target the best talent at No. 9, and then find another position at No. 29.
However.
The Chiefs have more picks in this year’s draft after trading cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams, and they can use the middle or late-round selections to double-up, if they see fit. They last time they had a surplus of picks, they drafted McDuffie and Jaylen Watson in the same class. That worked out OK.
It’s not a bad idea later in the draft, if that’s the way it falls.
Verdict: Not early, but stay open to it on Day 3
Scenario: Offered to trade out of the No. 9 pick
The simulator loves itself some trades, and real draft-day trades involving first-round picks over the years almost always favor the team moving out of the pick, not those moving up.
The Chiefs shouldn’t be reluctant to pounce — even if it prevents them from finally selecting in the top 10.
That’s easier said than done. As mentioned, the odds of the Chiefs fielding a ton of calls when they’re on the clock are probably slimmer than some think. But we’ve outlined a few scenarios in which those opportunities might arise.
Here’s another wrinkle in those scenarios, and it’s probably going to sound a bit uncomfortable for a team that just finished 6-11:
They ought to be just fine with acquiring picks in next year’s draft.
Every year, some team just seems to value going all-in to get on the clock right away, and often at the expense of future picks. A year ago, for example, the Falcons traded their second- and seventh-round picks in the 2025 draft and a future first-round pick in exchange for No. 26 overall and a third.
That future-first round pick is now No. 13 overall this month.
It’s a steal — because they were overly concerned with the future.
The verdict: Be willing to trade back.
This story was originally published April 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM.