Who the Chiefs could play next week, only if they beat Buffalo, and how they’d match up
A trip to Buffalo will put Patrick Mahomes in unfamiliar territory.
In more ways than one.
On Sunday, the Chiefs will play their first true road playoff game in Mahomes’ tenure as the starting quarterback — and they’ll also enter an AFC playoff matchup as an underdog for the first time.
It took more than a half-decade for either of those two things to be true.
If the Chiefs win, it could take all of one week for them to repeat themselves.
That’s a big if, because, as just explained, the oddsmakers expect the Bills to prevail.
Which sets up the weekly caveat: Nothing written below assumes the Chiefs will win in Buffalo. Rather, it’s a look at what awaits if they do win.
The Ravens and Texans play Saturday afternoon in Baltimore, with the winner facing the Chiefs-Bills winner. Baltimore owns home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. If the Texans win, though, the Chiefs-Bills game would not only solidify the AFC Championship Game matchup but determine the host too.
Baltimore Ravens
Possibility of reaching AFC Championship: 81%
What to know: The harder draw among the two options. Let me get that out of the way first. And the difficulty is more than the fact that the Chiefs would have to travel.
The Ravens were the NFL’s best team over this regular season. But they’ve actually been better than almost all teams over any regular season. The Ravens had the fifth best regular season DVOA since 1981, per FTN, a statistic that measures teams based on the efficiency of every single play. The same metric ranks this year’s Ravens as the best defensive team in the league and fourth best offensive team — and they ranked second on the latter before playing the backups in Week 18.
So, yeah, there’s a reason the Ravens earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They’re also the only team in the league that did not lose a game by more than one possession. (In fact, the Chiefs are the only team to do that just once this season.)
Lamar Jackson has won just one playoff game in his career — that came in 2020 — and until that changes, that statistic will follow him. But this is the best team he’s had.
There’s a lot to like about what the Ravens have done, but let’s dig into the strengths most relevant in a potential matchup with the Chiefs. Baltimore led the NFL in rushing by a wide margin, and for all of their improvement defensively in 2023, the Chiefs still allowed 4.5 yards per carry. That’d be a concern.
On the flip side, though, here’s one thing that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo would probably like: While Lamar Jackson is better than anyone in the business at buying more time to throw the ball, he did perform worse when he was blitzed. The Chiefs have the seventh-highest blitz percentage in the NFL, but per Next Gen Stats, they lead the NFL in unblocked pressures — in other words, they’ve better disguised them.
The other side of the ball? Just as good. The Ravens defense is terrific against the pass. They guard top receivers, No. 2 and No. 3 receivers, tight ends, running backs, you name it. They defend the deep ball, the short pass, the middle of the field, the back end. All of those metrics, also from FTN, feature the Ravens ranked among the 10.
Houston Texans
Possibility of reaching AFC Championship: 19%
What to know: Well, we’ve been here before. A lot. It’s actually the third straight week the Chiefs could be looking at a matchup with the Texans the following Sunday. So you’ll recognize some items in their scouting report.
A report that should start with one name: C.J. Stroud.
The odds-on favorite for the league’s offensive rookie of the year award — though Rams wideout Puka Nacua probably wants to know what more he could’ve done — and quite clearly should’ve topped the draft boards last spring.
Stroud is not shy on the field. He attacks the back end of the secondary more frequently than any quarterback, finishing the season with a league-high average depth of target of 9.4 yards. He doesn’t just attempt them. He’s effective with it. It’s opposite of the way the Chiefs are forced to work the ball from end zone to end zone.
But Stroud has the personnel to support it. Nico Collins finished second in the NFL in yards per route run, per PFF, and only Chiefs rookie Rashee Rice had a better yards after the catch per reception rate than Collins.
But here’s the thing. The Chiefs have been stout at the back end, allowing the third fewest yards per pass play in the league. They also all but beg teams to throw it, because they also have the second highest sack rate in the NFL.
What else the Chiefs might like: The Texans have struggled to defend the pass, 23rd in DVOA there. And in particular, when you can get their safeties and linebackers in coverage, you can exploit them. The Texans allowed the second most catches and yards to tight ends in the league, according to FTN data. The Chiefs have a pretty good one there.