Why the Chiefs’ playoff path is a legacy opportunity that Patrick Mahomes should covet
Half an hour after Tom Brady advanced to his ninth and final Super Bowl as a member of the New England Patriots, while dressed in his AFC champions T-shirt, he asked an Arrowhead Stadium security guard to escort him inside the Chiefs’ locker room.
Brady had asked to speak with Patrick Mahomes, a gesture as notable for its symbolism as the literal act. Here was the man who had dominated one generation igniting a conversation with the man best equipped to own the next.
You’ve probably heard that story. But you know what often gets lost in its re-telling?
The oddsmakers had predicted the next generation would arrive that very night.
That AFC Championship Game in Kansas City wasn’t about a worthy challenger coming up an overtime coin-toss short. The Patriots had the name and brand recognition, from the quarterback to head coach to the organization itself, but they were the challenger. They were the actual underdogs — by a full field-goal margin in the betting markets.
The relevance now? The Chiefs are heading to Buffalo this weekend for a Divisional Round postseason game that will place Mahomes in an environment he’s never experienced.
A road playoff game. That’s been a worthwhile topic all week. But there’s another rare role that comes with it — one more intriguing than the location of the game.
He’ll be an underdog. The role Brady once had in Arrowhead Stadium. The role in which Brady once thrived.
There are, quite obviously, many elements that separate the greats of their time with the statistical greatest of all time. But chief among them: Brady won more than the games we all assumed he’d win. He won the majority of the ones he wasn’t supposed to win.
Brady was a betting underdog 57 times with the Patriots. Fifty-seven times the betting market anticipated he’d lose. Predicted he’d lose. His record in those contests: 36-21. That’s not against the spread. That’s overall.
He was 7-4 in his playoff career in that same position, which of course later included the stop in Tampa Bay. Quite astoundingly, four of his seven Super Bowls required he win a game in the postseason in which his team was not favored.
That’s remarkable.
And it’s what faces Mahomes now.
At long last, right? OK, technically, Mahomes was a 1-point dog in last year’s Super Bowl win against Philadelphia. But that’s it. That’s the entirety of his time as a playoff underdog over his six-year starting career. It is, no doubt, a credit to him that his teams almost exclusively operate as a favorite.
But a bigger credit to him if he wins without it. An already impressive legacy, when it’s all said and done, can take a different kind of step forward this postseason because his steps forward will have to be different.
There is a realistic chance that the Chiefs would have to win three games during these playoffs in which the markets favor the opposition — trips to the Bills and Ravens and a Super Bowl date with the 49ers. That’s possible. That’s the path the market predicts. All would be favorites against the Chiefs. If Mahomes is able to guide them through that, which Super Bowl would you consider the most impressive?
Exactly.
This is, in that case, an opportunity.
To cement the legacy? Perhaps we’re past that already. But to add another layer to it? You bet.
He’s literally never been asked to do this, so how can we treat this playoffs path as though navigating through it would be just another trophy on the shelf?
Mahomes won’t say it directly — instead choosing to praise the opposition — but there are those inside the building who know he has been eager for this chance. And, heck, those outside the building know it, too, if they’ve paid attention long enough.
Just consider the contrast we saw Wednesday inside the Chiefs’ media room. In the afternoon, when asked how excited he was to play in Buffalo, defensive tackle Chris Jones replied, “It’s not really exciting. It’s just about what you make it. But I don’t know if anybody wants to go on the road and play.”
On a similar question, here was the reply from Mahomes: “I’m excited for it, because, I mean, it’s one of the best environments in football. And you want to do that when you grew up watching these games — play in the best environments and see what it’s like.”
Opportunity.
For a different role.
To produce the same results.
Mahomes has never had the chance to silence a playoff crowd on the road. Never had the chance to add this exact kind of story to his career. For all of the I-don’t-pay-attention-to-that rhetoric in sports, you can believe he’s aware of that one. There’s a reason for his stated excitement.
Multiple reasons, actually. Mahomes has done quite well under similar circumstances in the regular season. In fact, Mahomes-as-an-underdog has been one of the most profitable bets in Vegas over the past half-decade. It’s only happened nine times in six years (and four came in his first year as a starter).
His record in those games: 6-3. And his record against the spread: 7-1-1.
This circumstance seems to bring out Mahomes’ best. In those nine games, he’s thrown 33 touchdown passes, averaged 307 passing yards per game and accumulated a 116.9 passer rating. Those are better numbers, on a per-game basis, than all other games.
He’s won four straight as an underdog outside Arrowhead Stadium. That’s what the best do. They shrug at the toughest environments. Excited about them, you could say.
Think about those numbers. Mahomes has played better, historically, against the teams that are supposed to beat him.
Like the Bills are Sunday night in Buffalo.