Who the Chiefs could face in next week’s playoffs — and who they should want to play
In case you’re wondering if the Chiefs have much of a reason to care about the outcome of their trip to Los Angeles this weekend, know that they’re benching Patrick Mahomes.
For Blaine Gabbert.
Their regular-season finale against the Chargers has zero effect on their playoff seeding. Zilch.
Yet a handful of other games this weekend mean everything to the defending-NFL champion Chiefs’ route for a return to the Super Bowl. It puts a strange twist on Week 18 — they ought to be interested in the outcome of four games, none of which is the one they’re actually playing.
Consider this possibility for their path through the AFC bracket: vs. Dolphins, at Bills, at Ravens.
Versus this one: Steelers, Jaguars, Bills, all at home
A bit different, no?
Either could happen. A lot of possibilities are still in play, for that matter. The Chiefs might be locked into the No. 3 seed, but which team concludes Sunday as the No. 6 seed (to earn the trip to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium) is very much to be determined. It could be one of five teams: Bills, Dolphins, Steelers, Colts or Texans.
Who are the Chiefs most likely to play?
Who should they want to play?
All that below.
A couple of notes first: The possibility of earning the No. 6 seed comes from FTN data, and the projected betting lines, which are obviously subject to change based on events that unfold this weekend, are courtesy of the oddsmakers at Caesars Sportsbook.
Miami Dolphins
Possibility of No. 6 seed: 42.8%
Projected betting line: Chiefs -2.5
What to know: The highest probability is a fun one for storylines — Tyreek Hill making the return to Arrowhead Stadium that a trip to Germany stole — but not a desired one. The Dolphins offense has produced as well as any other, though the Chiefs are actually among the few to shut them down. In fact, the Chiefs held the Dolphins to their fewest passing yards of the season. But don’t let that fool you. The Dolphins have some dudes. They have the league’s highest-graded passer, two of the three highest-graded rushers and two of the four highest-graded receivers on the PFF charts. That’ll play. Tua Tagovailoa gets rid of the ball quicker than any quarterback in football, and that’s by design, because he’s not adept at escaping pressure.
The flip side is the Dolphins’ defense. It’s built around their edge rushers and cornerbacks, two spots that gave the Chiefs problems in Germany. But Miami has experienced a slew of injuries late in the season at those positions. Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are out for the year. Chubb was 12th in the NFL in pressures, per PFF. Cornerback Xavien Howard is also “week to week” with a foot injury.
One last note about the Dolphins’ defense: They are the fourth-worst team in defending short passes, per FTN DVOA, and Patrick Mahomes throws the ball short more frequently than any quarterback in the league. That could be an area the Chiefs exploit.
If the Bills beat the Dolphins, it will be Miami headed to Kansas City next week. If the Dolphins win? Well, it opens the door for the four other possibilities below.
Houston Texans
Possibility of No. 6 seed: 18.9%
Projected betting line: Chiefs -6
What to know: Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has come along more quickly than anyone expected — or certainly more than Carolina anticipated, apparently. The Texans are pretty one-dimensional offensively — pass, pass, pass — but they’re quite explosive with it. Stroud’s average depth of target is 9.4 yards, tops in the NFL among qualifying quarterbacks. They don’t just catch it deep. They make the most of it afterward, too. Receivers Nico Collins and Noah Brown are both top-eight in the league in yards after catch per reception. (Brown is nursing a back injury ahead of Week 18.) How would the Chiefs fare against that? Well, they are the fourth-best secondary in football at preventing deep shots, per FTN, and they have the third fewest missed tackles in the league. In other words, it’s strength on strength.
A different story on the other side of the football. The Texans’ secondary has been exposed this season. They allow the fifth most pass yards per play. And they particularly struggle in one area — defending the tight end. Houston has allowed the second most catches and yards to tight ends this season. Wonder if the Chiefs might have a guy who could take advantage of that?
Indianapolis Colts
Possibility of No. 6 seed: 17.4%
Projected betting line: Chiefs -6.5
What to know: On paper, it’s probably the easiest potential draw. Yes, I realize that, historically, postseason matchups against the Colts haven’t typically followed what the stats on paper suggest. But the Colts don’t really excel at anything. They’ve ridden backup quarterback Gardner Minshew to fight for playoff positioning. And while he’s been good enough, he’s also been a bit fortunate. He has the fourth-highest turnover-worthy play percentage in the league, per PFF, yet he has escaped with just nine interceptions this season. That TWP percentage is 4.0%, which is 1.1% higher than Mahomes, who has thrown five more interceptions. If you’re thinking the receivers have something to do with that, you’re right. Michael Pittman Jr. can bail a quarterback out — he’s third in the NFL with 15 contested catches, more than double any Chiefs receiver.
The Colts are probably best up front — ranked sixth in pass rush win rate and run stop win rate, per ESPN Analytics. But they have to be good up front. They blitz less frequently than any team in football, on just 15% of opponents’ drop-backs. That certainly wouldn’t change in a matchup with the Chiefs. Mahomes is the third-least blitzed quarterback in the league, trailing only Baker Mayfield and Tagovailoa.
Buffalo Bills
Possibility of No. 6 seed: 12.5%
Projected betting line: Chiefs -1.5
What to know: If there’s a team unafraid to march into Arrowhead Stadium, it’s undoubtedly the Bills. They’ve won three games in Kansas City in the past three seasons alone, and their only loss in that span was a postseason overtime thriller. So, yeah, this is the team the Chiefs should hope to avoid. And they could avoid playing Buffalo altogether, not just in the Wild Card round — the Bills actually haven’t even clinched a playoff spot. Yet they could secure the No. 2 seed with a win against the Dolphins on Sunday night. There’s a lot at stake.
For the Chiefs, too. A sixth-seeded Bills team would be one of the most under-seeded teams in recent memory. They are just plain good across the board — the FTN DVOA model ranks them as the third best team in the league, including fourth-best in total offense and 12th in defense. You’re familiar with the players by now: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, James Cook and so on. But what needs to be talked about more is how good the Bills have been up front this season. Their offensive line has conceded the lowest sack rate in the league (3.88%), by a wide margin. (The Chiefs are second in that stat, by the way). Much of that is Allen’s ability to avoid sacks.
The Bills have three cornerbacks who grade well — Rasul Douglas, Taron Johnson and Christian Benford — but if there’s a spot the passing defense can be had, it’s deep. There have been cracks on downfield shots. Same with defending the run. The Bills are allowing 4.6 yards per carry. So what’s interesting about a game with the Bills, aside from the history, is the game-plan suggests the Chiefs should throw it deep and rely on the run — which hasn’t been their scheme.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Possibility of No. 6 seed: 8.5%
Projected betting line: Chiefs -6
What to know: The Steelers need to get some help, but it’s not as though there isn’t precedent. Just two years ago, they opened the playoffs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium after sneaking into the postseason after the final game of the regular season.
Among these options, this is the matchup the Chiefs’ defense ought to covet most. The Steelers’ offense has struggled, turning to three different quarterbacks for solutions. They rank 26th in yards per drive and 28th in points per drive, per FTN numbers. They basically rely on running backs making plays, not exactly the best recipe in 2023. Their running backs have forced 10 more broken tackles than any other team, but the Chiefs have missed the third fewest tackles in the league, per Football Reference. It’s hard to envision the Steelers having much success moving the football.
Which brings us to the Steelers’ defense. True to form, they can still get after the quarterback, with a formidable duo on the edge in TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith. They’re both top-20 in the league in pressures, according to PFF. Pittsburgh like to blitz, too, doing so at the fourth-highest rate in the league. But for all of the Chiefs’ offensive setbacks this season, they still tear up blitzes. Mahomes has the sixth-best passer rating when facing extra rushers.