Why the Chiefs, locked into the No. 3 seed, are in a perfect spot ahead of Week 18
The Chiefs woke up on the first day of the new year in the same position they tend to begin most Januarys.
Already assured of a spot in the playoffs.
But with a twist this time: Assured of their exact spot in the playoffs.
The Chiefs are locked into the No. 3 seed on the AFC side of the bracket — cannot move up, cannot fall. It’s not where they would prefer to be — having their lowest seed since Patrick Mahomes took over as their starting quarterback — but there’s a compelling case it’s where they need to be.
Not the seed number.
The verb that preceded it.
Locked.
The Chiefs are unexpectedly afforded an opportunity that none of their potential first-round opponents will receive — some time off. And they could use it.
The opportunity is of the pick-your-own-adventure variety.
Such as? Forget about a Chargers game in Week 18 that won’t affect the standings. Well, let me be more specific: Have the most important people in the building forget about the Chargers game in Week 18. There are uses for the game, to be sure. Give first-rounder Felix Anudike-Uzomah and other younger players some run. Evaluate the tape.
But none of the uses should involve the Chiefs’ most impactful players — and if history is an accurate barometer, they likely won’t. Andy Reid tends to rest his starters in similar situations. (Travis Kelce might be a brief exception, sitting just 16 yards shy of his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season.)
Reid’s decision has always been traced to one reason: Why risk injury? After the Chiefs clinched the AFC West with Sunday’s win against the Bengals, defensive tackle Chris Jones said his body could “use a week off” because of some lingering bruises.
As good of a reason as any other.
Most years.
What differentiates this year? The Chiefs are in even greater need of a mental reset than the physical break. The year has been a grind, unlike this particular group of players has experienced. It’s not by accident that we’ve spent plenty of time analyzing the root of sideline blowups. There have been moments in which the Chiefs have looked like an exhausted team, and that’s not a reference to anything physically.
Here’s a chance to reset. Or better yet, a chance to re-focus. With a coach who utilizes such chances better than anyone.
This shouldn’t be the first time you’re hearing that Andy Reid is quite good coming off of a bye week, but what’s more relevant is his record is even better when he’s the only coach operating with that advantage. Reid is 28-3 in his career when coaching a team coming off a bye against an opponent that is not coming off a bye. That statistic, a 90.3 winning percentage, includes the playoffs.
The next two weeks won’t alter that record technically, but the potential impact is the same.
If they treat it as the same.
Reid and his staff are master big-picture scouters. That’s what a bye week offers. It’s not just about resting the starters. Rather than forming the best game plan to expose the weaknesses of the Chargers, they should instead spend a week seeking the answer to questions regarding their own triumph:
Why did implementing a more simple offensive game plan Sunday result in a much smoother operation? And is it capable of having similar success against tougher defenses this month?
There’s value in building momentum off that Bengals game, a 25-17 win in which the offense put up its second best yards-per-play total of the season (7.04). I’m not disputing that. But there’s greater value in clearing the runway for a big-picture look — in getting a head start on the playoffs as the Bills, Dolphins, Steelers, Texans and Colts jockey for positioning or even a ticket to the show. The Chiefs will host one of those teams at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
With extra rest.
For their bodies.
And their minds.
I’ll make one last point on the impact of that. The Chiefs just completed a stretch of six straight games with a rest disadvantage — their opponent, in six consecutive weeks, had more rest ahead of the game than they did.
The Chiefs record over that span: 3-3. They had their worst December since Mahomes arrived.
Since 2015, teams with a rest advantage of three-plus days won 55% of their games, per Sharp Football Analysis.
In other words, the schedule-makers didn’t do the Chiefs many favors on the back end.
But the Chiefs can return themselves the favor this week. All it takes is implementing what professional sports teams have long been adverse to admit ever doing.
Look ahead to next week.
This story was originally published January 2, 2024 at 5:30 AM.