Why I’m intrigued by the Chiefs’ trade for Mecole Hardman, even if it’s just insurance
Who would have thought that all Mecole Hardman needed to do to find popularity in this town would be to, well, leave town?
Oh, and then return.
The Chiefs traded for their own former second-round pick Wednesday, sending a swap of late-round draft selections to the Jets in exchange for Hardman, who fell out of favor in New York before he was ever in favor in New York.
Hardman is probably more insurance in Kansas City than anything else after the Chiefs lost receiver Justin Watson for a few weeks to an elbow injury; he comes at a relatively low cost, both in trade and financial compensation; and it shouldn’t take him long to get up to speed.
But I’m fascinated to see how he fits this offense, because the puzzle pieces have changed since he last stepped foot in the Chiefs locker room.
On the face of it, it makes at least some sense to reacquire Hardman, and not just for the reasons outlined above. While Marquez Valdes-Scantling is often viewed as the vertical wide receiver on the Chiefs roster, the numbers actually point to a different option.
Watson. The guy they’re now playing without.
In his second year in KC, Watson leads all NFL receivers in average depth of target. On average, he’s 23.6 yards downfield when targeted, which is 4.2 yards deeper than any receiver in football. In other words, Patrick Mahomes really only throws the ball Watson’s way when he’s running vertical routes.
So, hey, now that he’s injured, why not try to replace that vertical element with a player known to have some pretty good wheels? Done and done, right?
Well, here’s where it gets interesting: Hardman does have speed, but by the end of his last Chiefs tenure, Andy Reid was using Hardman’s speed in a much different way.
Horizontally, not vertically.
In 2021, which was Hardman’s last healthy season in Kansas City, he finished second in the NFL in yards-after-catch per reception. That would probably surprise some people. He trailed only 49ers first-team All-Pro Deebo Samuel in the category.
How? It’s not as simple as saying that Hardman was great after the catch, because it involved the types of catches he was asked to make.
He ranked 84th out of 94 receivers in the statistic I referenced earlier, average depth of target (ADOT), at just 7.1 yards. The Chiefs utilized him most frequently on the shortest of receiver patterns in their playbook — including several that originated behind the line of scrimmage — with the play designed for the bulk of the yardage to come after the reception.
So, yeah, they used him to stretch the field, but that was sideline to sideline, not end zone to end zone.
It was effective in specific game plans, none more obvious than against an overly aggressive 49ers defense last season, but here’s what it was not: the identical role that Watson has been occupying.
It’s actually more similar to the way the Chiefs have used Kadarius Toney this season. And Toney, mind you, remains on this roster. Toney is dead-last in the NFL in ADOT in 2023.
All of which is what intrigues me about the trade. The Chiefs aren’t ready to diminish Toney’s snaps, but in order to give Hardman the same job he had here previously, they’d almost have take away part of what they’re asking from Toney.
The two rarely overlapped last season, with Hardman injured. (The Chiefs were 10-1 without Hardman, by the way.) They’ll overlap now.
So are the Chiefs handing Hardman a different role than the one he left behind? A blend of the two? Or is he simply a backup, and the Chiefs would prefer to have their punt returner at least have the ability to contribute to the offense?
With teams playing deeper and deeper coverages against the Chiefs, Hardman is certainly capable of running vertically, theoretically opening up the underneath routes for tight end Travis Kelce and emerging rookie Rashee Rice.
It’s just that the Chiefs determined by the end of his residence in Kansas City that wasn’t the best use of his skills. It doesn’t mean that can’t be a use for him now, sure. Nothing says you have to match up the same way you did a year ago. But that’s the point. Same player, yes. Same role? Eh, we’ll see.
The last quick point on the trade: It leaves the Chiefs receiver room, the one under more scrutiny than any other position group, just one player shy of last year’s group, which won a Super Bowl.
The Chiefs have added Rice and Justyn Ross since then, and Rice continues to grow by the week. But they also have every player back from 2022 other than JuJu Smith-Schuster, who was key as the “X” receiver, but who also faded down the stretch of the season. He averaged just 40 yards per game over his final 11 games.
All else are back in that locker room.
But maybe the job is tweaked for Mecole Hardman.