What the betting line says about the Chiefs-Lions game Thursday in the NFL opener
It’s the opening night of the NFL season, and we already have a twist to a betting line.
The Chiefs are 4 1/2-point favorites against the Lions — but that dropped from 6 1/2 points almost immediately after Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee to close out the week’s final practice session.
It appears Kelce will be a game-time decision Thursday. I’m not going to pretend it wouldn’t be a big absence, but I don’t anticipate it means the Lions will suddenly shut down the Chiefs. A year ago, the Lions had the second-worst passing defense in football by yards per play, and their coverage was graded as the very worst by PFF. They did add three to their secondary via free agency — Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Moseley, though, is out with a knee injury.
It remains a good matchup for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, even as the Chiefs have spent the past 48 hours re-working potential game plans if he’s without his top target. Oh, and it’s a pretty good matchup for the running game too — the Lions allowed 5.22 yards per carry last season. They’ll have options, even if they don’t have their best playmaking option.
The Lions’ offense might be having a similar conversation, with the Chiefs set to take the field without defensive tackle Chris Jones. The Lions finished fourth in total yards a year ago. I’d expect the Chiefs to send extra numbers in various blitz packages — because the front four doesn’t instill a whole lot of confidence in getting to the quarterback all by their lonesome. The problem? Lions quarterback Jared Goff posted a better quarterback rating against the blitz than he did against four-man rushes last season.
That’s all to say this: Expect some points in the NFL opener.
The line: Chiefs 4.5
The pick: Chiefs 37, Lions 31
PLUS THREE
1. Skyy Moore, over 44.5 receiving yards
Kelce’s status is in doubt, but as I mentioned, I like the matchup for Mahomes. He’s going to have to throw the ball somewhere, and I’m buying the Skyy Moore stock this season — to a certain extent. I don’t know that the Chiefs have a 1,000-yard receiver on the roster, but I do know they have a two-time 5,000-yard passer who’s going to send those yards somewhere. Moore has had a consistence presence with the starters throughout training camp and preseason, an indication that he will receive plenty of snaps — and I’m betting enough catches to surpass this number.
2. Jahmyr Gibbs, over 27.5 receiving yards
The Lions have more than hinted that they will be using their first-round draft selection as a receiver as much as a running back. Well, teams attacked the Chiefs frequently by throwing to running backs last season — in fact, the Chiefs allowed more catches to running backs than any team in football. That sets up as a good opening matchup for the 12th overall pick.
3. Richie James, under 20.5 receiving yards
Even with Kelce’s status potentially offering receivers more snaps, James has seen fewer reps with the first team than his counterparts. While he’s the primary kick and punt returner, I anticipate he will be toward the back of the line in a crowded receiver room. This overall prediction, therefore, derives from the prediction of a limited number of snaps.