Why the NFL might regret moving Chiefs-Raiders game to Saturday
Update: The Bills-Bengals game Monday was postponed indefinitely and won’t be played this week.
At the onset of the year, the NFL left three open tables for its regular-season finale, all of them standalone windows. And wouldn’t you know it, they’ve mandated the Chiefs take a seat at one.
Surprised, right?
Kansas City will play the Raiders on Saturday in Las Vegas rather than Sunday, the league announced hours after the Chiefs beat the Broncos 27-24.
It should actually be welcome news for the Chiefs, with an obvious benefit I’ll get to shortly. The Chiefs coaches had already been preparing for this possibility days before they kicked off against Denver because, let’s face it, they understand the obvious — Patrick Mahomes is appointment TV and the NFL often finds a way to book that date.
But there’s a complication in this decision, and the Bills have the potential to benefit from it.
Maybe.
The Bills and Bengals will play Monday night in Cincinnati in a game that will heavily sway the conference’s race for the No. 1 playoff seed. With a win, the Bills stay a step ahead in that marathon. But if the Bengals win, the Chiefs will shoot to the front of the pack, needing only a win in Vegas to lock up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Either way, the Chiefs will be playing for something on Saturday, so the NFL did choose a game that will have some meaning. But there’s a potential fallout on the back end.
With the revised schedule, Buffalo could be taking the field in next Sunday’s finale with some extra information — some intelligence that would allow them to rest players ahead of the postseason while their counterparts need to march full steam ahead.
Stay with me here. But if the Bills win Monday in Cincinnati (and they’re favored to do so), a Chiefs loss next Saturday would clinch the Bills the No. 1 seed before they even take the field in Week 18. By the time they kick off a day later against the Patriots, what would be the need to play quarterback Josh Allen and the starters? Why not supply them an extra week off?
And the Patriots, by the way, currently occupy the seventh and final playoff spot in the AFC, holding the three-way tiebreaker over Miami and Pittsburgh. Think those teams would be pleased to see the Patriots have an easier game against one of the AFC’s best? (Another strange fallout of that scenario, if it were to occur, is the Chiefs would be in the No. 2 spot, and therefore it could also impact their first-round opponent.)
If the Bengals instead beat the Bills on Monday, the Chiefs could clinch the No. 1 seed with a win in Las Vegas. That, too, could alter the games Sunday, even if less likely so. The Bills and Bengals would be jockeying only for the difference between the No. 2 and No. 3 seed in Week 18. Without a bye, they could feel inclined to rest a few players in the finale. That might sound unlikely, given those seeds would determine which team hosts the AFC Divisional Round, but a year ago the Bengals sat quarterback Joe Burrow in the final game despite still having a chance to move up in seeding.
And that worked out OK for them.
At the end of the day, this isn’t some massive swing in advantage, but it does have the opportunity to provide a small edge.
Which is what makes it unusual the NFL set it up this way. The primary objective in the exercise to determine which games get shifted on Saturday should be not changing the action on Sunday. The NFL, it seems, is basically banking on the Chiefs holding serve against the Raiders, and then hoping the Bengals and Bills believe the difference in No. 2 and No. 3 is great enough to go all out.
Which might be likely.
But certainly not a given.
There’s a reason other North American sports leagues (see MLB, MLS, etc.) line up their schedules to start regular season finales at identical times — at least at kickoff, there’s the possibility that more games have playoff implications. The NFL is its own beast because of TV cash, but when it changes the potential product, they’re stepping on their own feet here.
Either way, don’t feel bad for the Chiefs in the change. Sure, it’s a short week ahead of Vegas, but the benefit falls on the back end of it — they will have an extra day of rest ahead of the postseason, which means an extra day of scouting, film work and all that goes into their preparation. Andy Reid tends to use the extra time productively; it’s one of the explanations for his record after bye weeks.
In the end, that’s what the Chiefs still hope to secure.
One more bye.
This story was originally published January 2, 2023 at 12:09 PM.