How will JuJu Smith-Schuster change the KC Chiefs’ offense? Here’s what to expect
The Chiefs mostly sat out the initial wave of free agency after telling us they would sit out the first wave of free agency, but as their division counterparts stacked their rosters and took advantage of salary cap space the Chiefs do not have, it’s created some angst.
You’re frustrated.
You’re worried.
But you shouldn’t be surprised. This is the way of the world for most perennial contenders, and especially so for one that has significant funds locked into seven players. As it sits now, before any potential roster bonus conversions or contract extensions, Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones, Tyreek Hill, Joe Thuney, Orlando Brown, Frank Clark and Travis Kelce occupy two-thirds of next year’s salary cap allotment, using figures from Over The Cap.
This Chiefs offseason, in other words, was always going to be structured around finding the sound investments in the second- or third-tier markets, not bidding for the top free agents.
Which is a long wind-up that brings us to JuJu Smith-Schuster. Because that’s where all of this has brought the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs agreed to a 1-year deal Friday with Smith-Schuster, the former Steelers wide receiver announced via social media.
Smith-Schuster was not the top wide receiver on the market. He’s not a player who could single-handedly change the mold of a Chiefs offense that encountered some rough currents last season.
But he’s not being paid like one of those guys.
He didn’t play with one of those guys at quarterback last year.
And the Chiefs cannot afford to acquire one of those guys.
In a world in which Christian Kirk landed $37 million guaranteed and Russell Gage landed $14 million guaranteed this week, the Chiefs are paying Smith-Schuster a $3 million base salary that can stretch to nearly $11 million with some incentives, per NFL Network.
Smith-Schuster only gets paid a big number if his performance dictates he’s worthy of it. That’s a pretty good deal on the surface.
But what does it do for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense? That’s really what we want to know, right?
Let’s start with what it won’t do — it doesn’t change the way defenses will play the Chiefs, not drastically, anyway. When Mahomes drops into the pocket, he’s still likely to be glaring at two-deep shell defenses more often than not. He’s still as least likely as any quarterback in football to see an oncoming blitz.
Teams are not suddenly going to let Tyreek Hill run wild on the back end because they’re terrified of what Smith-Schuster is running underneath. It’s not that easy. Hill already has been running the underneath stuff, along with tight end Travis Kelce, and that still isn’t been enough to draw the safeties back to the same zip code as the line of scrimmage.
What’s more intriguing is whether the Chiefs plan to use Smith-Schuster’s acquisition as a reason to return Hill to a higher percentage of deep routes, now believing they have someone else who can get open on the first level. If they opt for that, consider that Hill’s targets are likely to encounter a pretty sizable dip, because he’ll be running into defenders up top.
Smith-Schuster doesn’t erase those shells. The Chiefs still need to spend considerable time this offseason into finding the solution that does change that, even if it’s more scheme than personnel.
But Smith-Schuster does run the underneath routes, primarily from the slot. His most successful routes are the slant, flat and out routes, according to statistical analysis from Reception Perception.
The Chiefs haven’t really had that since Sammy Watkins left town, and even when Watkins resided here, he was inconsistent because of injuries. When he was healthy, though, his ability to run underneath routes played a factor. The wins and losses proved it. In 2018-19, the Chiefs were 19-4 in games in which Watkins played at least one full series and 5-4 in games in which he did not.
It’s the same concept here. They need someone who can be effective off the line of scrimmage. Which leaves this as the bigger question: Can Smith-Schuster be as effective as Watkins?
They’re not like-for-like replacements, even if Smith-Schuster will be asked to do a large portion of his work in the same areas of the field as Watkins had. The Chiefs are adding a slot receiver more than an outside guy. Smith-Schuster sees at least three-fourths of his snaps from the slot; Watkins saw about half of his snaps there in KC.
Smith-Schuster exploded in 2018, catching 111 passes for 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns. But he’s only barely eclipsed that yardage in the three ensuing seasons. A breakout year looks more and more like a career year. There have been injuries, sure, but the production when on the field isn’t the same either. If it were, he’d be receiving a much heftier payday at just 25 years old.
The Chiefs are banking on a rebirth with better surrounding personnel, most notably the quarterback. You can blame some of Smith-Schuster’s dropoff on the declining play of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who retired after last season, a year too late. Some of it. But not all.
Pro Football Focus has graded Smith-Schuster worse each year — and in some seasons significantly worse — since 2018. That’s, well, not optimal.
He is still capable of creating separation. The shoulder injury that robbed him of most of 2021 is unlikely to change that. Per Next Gen Stats, Smith-Schuster created an average of 3.0 yards of separation on passes thrown his way in 2018. In 2020, a supposed down year, he was actually even better there, creating 3.1 yards of separation. (His stats did not populate for 2021 because he saw only 28 targets in five games.)
What else the Chiefs will like is his ability to make plays after the catch. In 2019, he averaged 1.7 more yards after the catch than expected, a Next Gen Stats data point, which was eighth among all wide receivers.
It all adds up to a mixed bag — depending on your expectations. The Chiefs wide receiver room is better than it was yesterday, better than it was last year. Smith-Schuster is an improvement on Byron Pringle, who departed for the Bears a day earlier.
But his addition alone won’t solve the deep shells.
Work to be done still.
This story was originally published March 19, 2022 at 5:00 AM.