Chiefs’ playoff odds are ugly, but there is a path for KC starting Monday night
If you saw the “Avengers” movies, you likely recall Dr. Strange saying he had looked at 14,000,605 possible outcomes and in only one did the superheroes defeat Thanos.
It kinda feels that way for the Chiefs and the playoffs.
The Chiefs remain 10th in the AFC standings, and just seven teams make the postseason. At 6-7, the Chiefs have the same record as the Miami Dolphins and need to leap over three teams to get in the playoff field.
Here’s a closer look at the Chiefs’ playoff outlook.
Postseason odds
The NFL gives the Chiefs a 15% chance of being in the playoffs. The league is being bullish compared to other projections.
PlayoffStatus.com has it at 8% for the Chiefs, while The Athletic sees it as a 14% chance.
Chiefs’ remaining schedule
Sunday: vs. Chargers
Dec. 21: at Titans
Dec. 25: vs. Broncos
Jan. 3 or 4: at Raiders
Chiefs’ best path to the playoffs
The Chiefs best chance of squeezing into the postseason is to win their four remaining games, which is no easy task considering they’ve lost four of their last five.
They’d also need to have the Chargers and Colts stumble down the stretch.
The Chiefs’ loss to Houston was a triple-whammy: It hurt their win-loss record, was against a team they’re chasing in the AFC and was another conference defeat, which is a tiebreaker after head-to-head games.
The Chiefs are 3-5 in games against AFC foes.
The Chargers have an 8-4 record, and assuming the Chiefs win out to get to 10-7, LA would have to go 1-4. The Colts have an 8-5 record, but the Chiefs hold the tiebreaker based on their win last month.
Focus on the Colts
Indianapolis is eighth in the conference and was dealt a tough blow when quarterback Daniel Jones was injured Sunday. An Achilles injury will keep him out of action the rest of the season.
The Colts’ remaining four games: at Seattle, vs. 49ers, vs. Jaguars, at Texans.
Focus on the Chargers
The Chargers play tonight against the Eagles, and if LA wins, it would drop the Chiefs’ chances of making the postseason to 10%, per The Athletic. If Philly wins, the Chiefs get a bump to 18%.
After that, LA comes to Arrowhead Stadium next Sunday. That’s an elimination game for the Chiefs. But if the Chargers lose Monday night and to the Chiefs, their record would be 8-6, which would open the door for KC.
Two factors working against the Chiefs: The Chargers are 4-0 in AFC West play and 7-2 in conference games. Tiebreakers after head-to-head play are the teams’ record in divisional games, record in common games and then conference games.
This is the Chargers’ remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, at Broncos.
This story was originally published December 8, 2025 at 9:04 AM.
