Here is who national experts predict will win Indianapolis Colts at Chiefs game
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Majority of 67 national experts favor the Chiefs to beat the Colts at Arrowhead.
- Experts cite Jonathan Taylor’s rushing and Colts’ efficient offense vs KC run defense.
- Predictions favor narrow margins; most outlets project mid-20s scores and tight game.
If you include the playoffs, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has defeated all other 31 NFL teams. But there’s one that he has yet to best in the regular season.
The Indianapolis Colts.
Mahomes and the Chiefs have lost the two previous regular-season meetings to Indianapolis. But in his first career playoff game, Mahomes led the Chiefs past Indianapolis in an AFC Divisional contest, so he has prevailed against Indy.
The more important record to the Chiefs is 5-5, which is only the ninth-best in the AFC. Can the Chiefs get their season back on track against the Colts?
Kickoff is at noon, and the game will air on KCTV (Ch. 5) in Kansas City. Jim Nantz and Tony Romo will be in the broadcast booth. Here is who 67 national experts think will win.
A 27-23 Chiefs victory is the forecast from Rob Maaddi of the Associated Press. This is from his story: “The Indianapolis Colts are also in a new spot, leading a division they haven’t won since 2014. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-5) have no margin for error when they host Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor and the Colts (8-2) at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday in the most intriguing matchup on the NFL’s Week 12 schedule.”
A 28-24 Chiefs win is the prediction from the Arizona Republic’s Jeremy Cluff. He wrote: “The Chiefs are a much better team at home (4-1) than on the road (1-4). This is a must-win game for Kansas City against an Indianapolis team coming off a bye. Patrick Mahomes and company will get it done.”
A 27-20 Chiefs victory is the call from the Sporting News’ Bill Bender. Here is part of what he wrote: “The Chiefs allow 100 rushing yards per game. How much will they give up to MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor? That is going to be the key at Arrowhead Stadium.”
The Colts will prevail, say the two Indianapolis Star reporters: Joel Erickson (28-24 final score) and Nathan Brown (27-24). This is an excerpt of what Brown wrote: “The Chiefs have struggled against offenses that can get rolling even a little bit — they’re 2-5 in games in which the opposing team has scored double-digits and 1-5 when their opponents have scored 20. The Colts are 8-0 when scoring at least 21 points, and I think they can do that. It won’t be easy, and it might not be pretty, but Indianapolis wins a nailbiter.”
Going with the Chiefs are three of five Athletic writers: Zack Rosenblatt, Austin Mock and Nick Kosmider. Picking the Colts are Chad Graff and Larry Holder. Here is an excerpt from J.J. Bailey’s story: “Indianapolis comes to town fresh off a bye week, sporting the NFL’s most efficient offense and the weapons to attack the Chiefs’ biggest defensive weakness. Jonathan Taylor, he of 1,139 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, has split his yardage evenly between inside and outside runs but is especially dangerous when going outside the tackle box. Kansas City has a credible defense, but its run-stopping unit is the soft spot, ranked 20th in defensive efficiency against outside runs.”
Taking the Chiefs are six of eight CBS Sports writers: Pete Prisco, Jared Dubin, Ryan Wilson, Cody Benjamin, Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg. Picking the Colts are John Breech and Tyler Sullivan. Prisco sees a 26-20 final. He wrote in part: “This is the game of the week, featuring a Colts team coming off a bye against a Chiefs team that can’t afford another loss. The Colts have rolled on offense this season, but this is a spot where the Kansas City defense steps up and plays well.”
The Chiefs are the choice for SirusXM’s Bruce Murray and Rich Gannon.
Picking the Chiefs are four of five writers at NFL.com: Ali Bhanpuri (26-23 final score), Brooke Cersosimo (26-23). Dan Parr (27-23) and Gennaro Filice (26-20). Going with Indy is Tom Blair (27-24). Here is a snippet of what Filice wrote: “I’d say the Colts would be wise to put it all on Jonathan Taylor in this one, but the Chiefs have held three of their last four opponents to 60 rushing yards or fewer, yielding an NFL-low 3.3 yards per carry in that span. The chess match between Shane Steichen and Steve Spagnuolo takes center stage at Arrowhead, and I like the four-time Super Bowl champion to rally his defense in a must-win game.”
It’s a split decision for the Pro Football Talk writers. Mike Florio has KC winning 27-24, while Chris Simms sees the Colts prevailing 24-21.
The Chiefs are the pick for nine of the 11 ESPN experts: Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Jeremy Fowler, Dan Graziano, Moses Moody, Lindsey Thiry, Jason Reid and Seth Wickersham. Taking the Colts is Kalyn Kahler and Pamela Maldonado.
It’s an even split among the six Sports Illustrated writers. Taking the Chiefs are Mitch Goldich, John Pluym and Matt Verderame. Going with Indy are Clare Brennan, Gilberto Manzano and Conor Orr.
Picking the Chiefs are seven of the 10 Dallas Morning-News experts: Joey Hayden, Joseph Hoyt, Dana Larson, Damon Marx, Craig Miller, Kevin Sherrington and Newy Scruggs. Taking the Colts are Tim Cowlishaw, Calvin Watkins and Abraham Nudelstejer.
The Chiefs are the choice for all six USA Today writers: Jarrett Bell (23-20 final score), Nick Brinkerhoff (27-21 final score), Chris Bumbaca (24-20), Nate Davis (27-24), Tyler Dragon (26-24) and Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz (27-21).
Picking the Chiefs are four of seven Bleacher Report writers: Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Wes O’Donnell. Going with Indianapolis are Ian Hanford, Gary Davenport and Brent Sobleski.
This story was originally published November 22, 2025 at 3:58 PM.
