Chiefs vs. Colts betting line & prediction: The time for KC to win is now
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Chiefs host Colts at Arrowhead; KC needs a win on Sunday; betting line -3.5.
- Colts lead NFL in points and yards; Jonathan Taylor drives elite rushing attack.
- Mahomes and Reid face scrutiny; Isiah Pacheco set to practice and possibly play.
The Kansas City Chiefs will attempt to avoid a three-game skid as they host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
Kansas City dropped to 5-5 with its 22-19 Week 11 loss to the Denver Broncos. The Indianapolis Colts last played in Week 10, defeating the Atlanta Falcons 31-25 in Berlin to improve to 8-2 before their Week 11 bye.
How to watch Colts at Chiefs
Kickoff: 12 p.m. Central
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City)
Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)
Betting line: Chiefs -3.5
Behind the IND-KC matchup
When the NFL schedule was released, most assumed this Week 12 matchup would feature one of the league’s premier teams facing a middling one.
Oddly enough, they were right — except the roles are reversed, with the Colts holding prime playoff position as the Chiefs begin their hunt for the Wild Card round.
Kansas City currently sits ninth in the conference standings, meaning the margin for error is nearly gone.
“Just like if you were going to a big divisional game or a playoff game or whatever it is, you just have to know what’s at stake,” Patrick Mahomes said Wednesday. “You try to prepare yourself throughout the week and do the little extra stuff so that your mind can be settled on game day. And then you can go out there and just play, knowing that you need to go out there and win the football game.”
Similar to the previous two games for the Chiefs — losses to the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos — that won’t come easy. The Colts enter Sunday with the league’s top offense in both points (32.1) and yards (396.9) per game.
Those efforts are powered by Johnathan Taylor, who leads the NFL with 1,139 rushing yards, including 244 and three touchdowns in his final game before the bye. He is the only player in league history to record at least three rushing touchdowns in four separate games through the first 10 weeks of the season.
Aside from a poor Week 9 performance against James Cook, Kansas City’s defense has largely prevented a running back from taking over. It will need its best effort against Taylor.
The quarterback matchup features Mahomes against a resurgent Daniel Jones, who currently outpaces Mahomes in completion percentage (69.9%) and passer rating (101.6). Jones (265.9) and Mahomes (262.5) rank first and second in yards per game.
This week, Andy Reid has faced public scrutiny, a rarity during his KC tenure. Despite the Chiefs ranking top 10 in both yards (364.2) and points (25.4) per game, they have lost five straight one-score games.
In the wake of that, some have called for greater creativity and a better commitment to the run game. On Wednesday, Reid politely pushed back.
“We’re not in a position where we need to wholesale that,” he said. “That’s not where we’re at right now. We need to just clean up some things. The nice part about this offense is you’ve got a lot of directions you can go with it. A whole lot of things — different things you can do with it. It’s important that we do the right things and get ourselves in the right place.”
The potential return of starting running back Isiah Pacheco could help, but after logging a full practice on Wednesday, he was limited on Thursday.
The Chiefs will have the luxury of facing the Colts without All-Pro interior defender DeForest Buckner, who was placed on injured reserve in early November.
While Buckner won’t play, Indianapolis hopes to welcome back former Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward, a member of the Super Bowl LIV championship team. Ward suffered a concussion during warmups in Week 6.
Kansas City left guard Kingsley Suamataia exited Sunday’s game with a concussion, and wide receiver Xavier Worthy tweaked his ankle last week. Neither practiced Wednesday, though Worthy appears further along after completing a walkthrough.
The Chiefs could use both, as, at least unofficially, the postseason begins now.
“We get to write the rest of this season’s story,” Mahomes said. “It starts this week with the Colts at Arrowhead, and I’m excited for us to go out there and do it.”
Colts-Chiefs game prediction
Like you, I have seen some wild overreactions this week — with some ready to bury the season with seven games to play. I’m not there, as I didn’t wake up Monday morning suddenly forgetting about the last eight years.
There’s no doubting this is rare air in Kansas City, but for at least one more week, I’ll stick with the future Hall of Fame head coach and the two-time MVP to find a way to right the ship.
Kansas City manages Taylor, plays clean offensive football and turns its attention to Turkey Day.
Winner: Chiefs 30, Colts 20
Pick to cover: Chiefs
This story was originally published November 20, 2025 at 7:30 AM.
