Here’s what four NFL projection models say about Chiefs’ chances for AFC’s top seed
While the Steelers hold a slight edge over the Chiefs in the race for the top seed in the AFC with four games remaining, the computers like Kansas City’s chances to end up with the best record.
The Chiefs and Steelers are both have an 11-1 record with four games remaining. Pittsburgh holds a slight edge based on a better conference record.
But four different computer models like the Chiefs’ chances of passing the Steelers and claiming the AFC’s top spot.
Here’s a closer look.
Football Outsiders
Using its DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage, Football Outsiders calculates which team will win each of the games left to be played this season.
It forecasts 13.8 wins for the Chiefs and a 51.7% chance of being the top seed in the AFC. The Steelers are at 13.7 wins and a 47.3% chance of ending up with the No. 1 seed.
The DAVE ratings combine the preseason forecast with DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) to “get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season.”
Five Thirty Eight
Using its Elo Ratings, FiveThirtyEight.com projects the outcome for the rest of the NFL season.
The Chiefs have a 57% chance of getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC race, while the Steelers are at 41%.
The Elo Ratings are described as “a simple system that judges teams or players based on head-to-head results.” You can read more on that here.
Playoff Status
The outcomes of the rest of the NFL season’s games at PlayoffStatus.com “are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.”
Given that, the Chiefs have a 55% chance of claiming the top seed, Playoff Status calculated. The Steelers are at 43%.
If the Bills beat the Steelers this weekend, the Chiefs’ chances will jump to 81%.
New York Times
The playoff simulator at the New York Times plays out “every other game remaining in the 2020 season, based on Sagarin ratings, which measure relative team strength.”
It also allows users to pick the results of any NFL game to see the effect it has on the playoff race.
The Times give the Chiefs a 52% chance to be the AFC’s No. 1 seed, while the Steelers are at 46%.
If the Bills beat the Steelers, the Chiefs’ chances jump to 76%. If the Chiefs also beat Miami, that jumps to 89%.
This story was originally published December 8, 2020 at 10:09 AM.
