Chiefs are part of the most wide-open race for top seed in the AFC since 1992
Oh, Sunday is going to be fun, right?
Week 17 is the only Sunday of the season to feature every NFL team in action. An advisory courtesy of Bette Davis: Fasten your seat belts, because it could be a bumpy day.
While just eight teams have a shot to grab one of the six playoff spots in the AFC, the seeding possibilities are all over the map, starting with the Chiefs, who could be the first, second, third or fifth seed depending on how Sunday’s games finish.
The most extreme example of the wackiness is the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens, who could each end up as high as the No. 2 seed or finish out of the playoffs all together.
For the Chiefs, missing the playoffs isn’t an option. But they have competition for home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs from the Patriots, Texans and Chargers.
Football researcher Ivan Urena said this is the most teams still alive for the AFC’s top seed in the final week of the season since 1992* (also four). Only the 1980 season had more AFC teams in the running for the top seed with one week to play (five), Urena said.
*The Steelers, Chargers, Dolphins and Bills all finished 11-5, and Pittsburgh had the top seed but lost its first playoff game to Buffalo, which went to the Super Bowl.
Andrew Siciliano of the NFL Network tweeted that 16 different scenarios could play out in the NFC playoff race. In the AFC, that number is 128.
▪ Here are the scenarios for the Chiefs securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC (via the NFL):
1. Chiefs beat the Raiders OR
2. Chiefs-Raiders tie and Chargers lose or tie against Denver OR
3. Chargers lose and Patriots lose or tie against Jets or Texans lose or tie against Jaguars OR
4. Chargers lose, Patriots lose or tie and Chiefs get at least a tie in strength of victory tiebreaker with Texans. According to PlayoffStatus.com, that last part would mean all of the following games finishing like this: Ravens beat Browns, Eagles beat Washington, 49ers beat Rams, Giants beat Cowboys, Cardinals beat Seahawks and Patriots tie the Jets.
▪ Even with a loss to Oakland, the Chiefs can be the second seed in the AFC if:
1. The Chargers lose and Patriots lose or tie OR
2. Chargers lose and Texans lose or tie OR
3. Chargers lose and Chiefs win strength of victory tiebreaker with Texans. PlayoffScenarios.com has five different ways the Chiefs could break that tie with Houston, which you can see here.
▪ The Chiefs could also win the AFC West if they lose and Chargers lose OR Chiefs tie and Chargers tie.
If the Chiefs and Chargers lose, but the Patriots and Texans win (and Houston has the better strength of victory), the Chiefs would be the No. 3 seed in the AFC.
▪ The Chiefs would be a wild card and get the fifth seed if they lose and the Chargers win.
▪ Here is how the other AFC teams could claim the No. 1 seed, via the NFL:
Patriots: A win coupled with losses by the Chiefs and Chargers.
Texans: A win coupled with a Patriots win or tie, losses by Chiefs and Chargers and if Houston clinches a tie in strength of victory tiebreaker over the Chiefs.
Chargers: A win or tie and Chiefs loss.
If you’d like to look at other AFC playoff scenarios, check out this tweet from Joe Ferreira:
There is going to be a lot of scoreboard watching on Sunday.
This story was originally published December 27, 2018 at 8:15 AM.
