NFL Network analytics expert: Chiefs are the ‘AFC’s biggest boom-or-bust team’
The performance of the Chiefs defense in the preseason didn’t do much to allay the fear of fans heading into Sunday’s 2018 opener against the Chargers.
While it appears that quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the offense will be potent this season, the defense is a question mark. Will the Chiefs be able to defend their AFC West crown? Or will the Chargers win the division, as many preseason prognosticators seem to think?
In previewing the AFC, Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert for the NFL Network, called the Chiefs the league’s “biggest boom-or-bust team.”
Frelund’s calculations showed the Chiefs could win as many as 12.2 games, which is second only to the Patriots. The Chiefs’ floor is 7.9 victories.
In determining win-total ranges for each team, Frelund wrote that she took data from the past 10 NFL campaigns and used it to forecast this year’s outcomes.
“I make a model that takes into account trends, personnel and situations that were proven to lead to wins (or losses) in the past,” she wrote. “Then I ‘play out the season’ 320,000 times. Yes, it’s kind of like ‘Madden’ simulations. Yes, it adapts each year to account for the game’s evolution...”
Frelund predicted the Chiefs would win the AFC West for a third straight season.
“To make a big leap, the Chiefs must fix the 29th-ranked pass defense from last season, and they’ll have to do it without star CB Marcus Peters. The good news is that three-time All-Pro safety Eric Berry is on his way back from an injury that basically cost him the entire 2017 campaign. Furthermore, the acquisition of cornerback Kendall Fuller in the Alex Smith trade helps mitigate the loss of Peters. If inside linebackers Anthony Hitchens and Reggie Ragland can reduce opponents’ ability to rush against the Chiefs, K.C. could be set up for a deep playoff run.”
You can read more of what Frelund wrote here about the Chiefs and the entire AFC field.
This story was originally published September 5, 2018 at 9:08 AM.