Chiefs-Broncos odds & prediction: Christmas night, injuries & the upside down
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Three quick takeaways: Chiefs start Chris Oladokun after Mahomes and Minshew injuries.
- Broncos hold a 12–3 record, top AFC seed, and face Chargers' divisional threat.
- Betting line favors Broncos by 12.5; pick: Denver wins 30–6 and covers.
Three days after confirming their eventual move to the state of Kansas, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos on Christmas night at the beloved Arrowhead Stadium in their final home game of the 2025 season.
In Week 16, Kansas City fell to 6-9 with its 26-9 loss to the Tennessee Titans. The Broncos (12-3) saw their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 34-20 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
How to watch Broncos at Chiefs
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. Central Time
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TV: Amazon Prime (Channel 41 in Kansas City)
Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)
Betting line: Broncos -12.5
Behind the DEN-KC matchup
In the same year Netflix rolled out the final season of Stranger Things, the Chiefs and Broncos have been living in the upside down.
On Thursday night, the Chiefs will take the field without quarterback Patrick Mahomes — lost for the season with a torn ACL — and Gardner Minshew, who injured his knee early in the loss to the Titans.
That leaves Chris Oladokun, a former 2022 seventh-round pick who has spent the last four seasons in Kansas City as its third quarterback, set to make the first start of his career on Christmas night.
“It’s Christmas Day,” Oladokun said after playing in relief of Minshew against the Titans. “The possibility of me making a first start on Christmas Day is pretty special. I have family in town and stuff like that, so I’m looking forward to it.”
Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos are in the midst of their most successful season since 2015, already having reached 12 wins and a playoff berth. But their work isn’t done yet.
While Denver currently holds the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a tiebreaker over New England, the Broncos have yet to clinch the AFC West, with the Los Angeles Chargers on their tail. Any Broncos slip-up could see them tumble all the way to the road side of a Wild Card matchup.
Still, the Chiefs upsetting the Broncos would be nothing short of a Christmas miracle. And it’s not only the fact that KC will be starting Oladokun against the No. 5-ranked defense that has a league-leading 63 sacks on the season.
Against the Titans, the Chiefs were missing receiver Rashee Rice and tackles Jaylon Moore and Jawaan Taylor on offense. On defense, they were without cornerback Trent McDuffie, linebacker Leo Chenal and defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi.
Chenal has been placed on injured reserve, and the club estimated that Rice (concussion), McDuffie (knee) and cornerback Jaylen Watson (groin) would not have practiced in their official report released on Monday.
Led by quarterback Bo Nix, Denver’s offense ranks 13th (24.1 points per game). Receiver Courtland Sutton, who leads Denver in receptions (69), yards (972) and touchdowns (seven), will present the greatest problem to the Chiefs with questions surrounding McDuffie and Watson.
With nothing to play for, Kansas City faced some scrutiny for not giving rookies — such as linebacker Jeff Bassa, receiver Jalen Royals or running back Brashard Smith — expanded playing time against the Titans. We’ll see if that changes Thursday night.
Chiefs-Broncos game prediction
This will be a Christmas night to forget.
Winner: Broncos 30, Chiefs 6 Pick to cover: Broncos
This story was originally published December 23, 2025 at 6:30 AM.
