Chiefs’ road to Super Bowl title is toughest in NFL history, expert says. Here’s why
The Kansas City Chiefs are on the verge of something historic, advanced numbers expert Aaron Schatz says.
Schatz, chief analytics officer for FTN Fantasy and creator of the all-encompassing DVOA statistic, says if the Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII against the San Francisco 49ers on Feb. 11, they’ll have completed a stretch unlike any other NFL team.
“I think it should be remembered as one of the best postseason runs ever,” Schatz said.
His data gives the backing.
According to his DVOA numbers, no NFL team has ever faced a playoff road as daunting as this one. The Chiefs — ranked fifth in Team DVOA themselves — defeated No. 6 at home (Miami), No. 3 on the road (Buffalo), then No. 1 on the road again (Baltimore).
All that’s left now is for KC to beat San Francisco, which is ranked second in DVOA.
“It’s hard to win a Super Bowl. But it’s especially hard to win a Super Bowl, first of all, going up against teams as good as Baltimore and San Francisco were this year,” Schatz said. “But also winning four games instead of winning three, and winning two of them on the road. It makes it extra hard.”
Schatz went to the extra step this week of defining just how impressive this Chiefs run could be.
First, he looked at the average opponent faced in the NFL playoffs among teams who played four games. If KC wins against San Francisco, the team will move to the top spot in history, with its average opponent ranking third in DVOA.
Another way to look at things? Schatz plugged in the numbers to see how often an “average” Super Bowl champion would win it all based on a team’s postseason track.
Schatz numbers say an “average” Super Bowl team in history — with the Chiefs’ specific four-game playoff slate — would win it all 2.4% of the time. That would be the lowest mark ever for a champ, edging out the 2007 New York Giants (2.44%).
And perhaps that should give the Chiefs more hope they’ll win on Super Bowl Sunday. That Giants team has a direct underdog link to this Chiefs’ one: Both teams employ the same defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo.
Schatz is willing to hear an argument, by the way, if Giants supporters suggest their 2007 route was slightly more difficult. That’s because the Chiefs played a couple of short-handed teams in the playoffs, which wouldn’t be fully reflected in his full-season DVOA numbers.
“So if a Giants fan wants to say, ‘Well when you look at the injuries on the Bills’ defense and the Miami defense, I think the Giants had a harder road,’ they’ve got a good argument there,” Schatz said. “But I don’t think anybody else really does.”
KC’s greatest accomplishment to this point, according to DVOA, was taking down Baltimore on the road. Schatz’s numbers loved the Ravens, to the point that he asked the question last week if they entered the AFC Championship Game as the hottest team ever.
“When you look at the quality of their wins, they just blew out great opponents — they blew out winning teams over and over and over again,” Schatz said. “They were just a phenomenally good team in the regular season.”
And while one never should count out Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Schatz said, the Ravens did hold him scoreless in the second half of KC’s 17-10 victory.
That meant the more unexpected element was on the other side.
“I know the Chiefs defense was good this year, but the Ravens offense was better than the Chiefs defense during the regular season,” Schatz said. “And that offense just got completely shut down. That was the shock.”
Something undeniable at this point is that the Chiefs have elevated their play in the postseason; their regular season was good but not elite, Schatz’s numbers showed.
KC, however, has put up three of its five best DVOA performances of the year during these playoffs.
“So when the pressure’s on, they’ve been amazing,” Schatz said. “This has been the best play that they’ve had.”
The 49ers are the top-ranked offense according to DVOA and have held that place for most of the back-half of the season.
Schatz says he’s gone back and forth on how he thinks this Super Bowl will turn out.
“The San Francisco offense has just been better this year than Kansas City’s. And yet, at the same time, Mahomes,” Schatz said. “So it’s really hard to make that pick between those two things.”
This story was originally published February 1, 2024 at 6:30 AM.
