Chiefs-Chargers prediction: This pick hinges on figuring out who will/won’t play
The Kansas City Chiefs travel to face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18. Here are the details:
Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City)
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City)
Line: Chargers by 3 1/2.
Game prediction
The prediction this week is a guessing game more than any other week.
Will the Chiefs play many starters with their No. 3 AFC seed already clinched? And if so, which ones ... and for how long?
Those are the key questions when determining whether a not-full-strength Kansas City team might be good enough to still cover a 3 1/2-point spread against the Chargers on the road.
So, let’s speculate a bit. Coach Andy Reid wouldn’t confirm it this week, but it sure seems like Travis Kelce will play briefly while trying to secure a 1,000-yard season. (Update: The Chiefs announced Sunday before the game that Kelce would be out.) Defensive tackle Chris Jones’ status is less known, though he was on the injury report this week and said Sunday he wouldn’t mind resting the game while sitting at 9 1/2 sacks.
Reid announced Friday that receivers Rashee Rice and Kadarius Toney and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed won’t play. The coach didn’t rule out Isiah Pacheco, but given all the hits the second-year running back has taken this year, I wouldn’t bet on him taking any snaps Sunday.
That leaves KC quite a short-handed group, even if LA hasn’t been that impressive this season. Most surprising is that the Chargers rank 29th defensively in the all-encompassing DVOA stat, a depth that I never would have expected a Brandon Staley-led squad (before he was fired last month) to reach.
Another point to consider: Quarterbacks have an oversized impact on outcomes each week, and with Patrick Mahomes sitting, KC backup Blaine Gabbert has to be deemed an unknown at best. The veteran struggled during most of the preseason and had two interceptions on five pass attempts during his only 2023 regular-season action against Chicago. It’s not out of the question for him to play well against LA, but it likely would take a leap of faith to predict that.
Chiefs fans typically take over SoFi Stadium when these two teams meet in LA, but the low stakes might cool the enthusiasm for both sides. And though LA quarterback Easton Stick is no Justin Herbert, he’s been largely fine when thrown in there the last four games, while also adding a QB run element the team didn’t have before.
One area in which the Chargers match up favorably to the Chiefs is special teams, where both teams boast top-four units according to both DVOA and Pro Football Focus. Cameron Dicker, in particular, has been excellent with field-goal accuracy, and in a projected low-scoring game, that could give the Chargers an extra bump other teams might not have.
Ultimately, I like the Chargers for both the win and cover. I expect the Chiefs to be mostly conservative with the guys they run out there in a nothing-to-gain matchup, and it’d be surprising to me if the Chargers’ main guys can’t pull away from KC’s backups — especially with an on-paper advantage under center.
Chargers 20, Chiefs 10
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Los Angeles
Last game prediction: Chiefs 31, Bengals 14 (Actual: Chiefs 25-17) ✔️
2023 record vs. spread: 10-6
Last two seasons record vs. spread: 22-14
This story was originally published January 6, 2024 at 6:00 AM.
