Chiefs-Broncos prediction: The reasons to believe Denver can keep it close against KC
The Details
Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City)
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City)
Line: Chiefs by 7.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
Not too much has changed about the Broncos since I last previewed them in this space 2 1/2 weeks ago.
Denver, according to the all-encompassing DVOA stats at FTN Fantasy, remains average on offense (15th) and dreadful defensively (32nd). The Broncos are slightly better running the ball than passing, while on defense, they’ve been about equally poor in both.
Perhaps Denver has found more lately on the ground, though? Its Pro Football Focus “run” grades — that capture the ball-carriers’ role — have been impressive 88s for two consecutive weeks in contests against KC and Green Bay.
The Broncos averaged 5.8 yards per carry last week in a 19-17 home win against the Packers, with Javonte Williams performing well and Jaleel McLaughlin continuing to make the most of his limited touches.
Passing is more advantageous than running in the NFL, but one can at least see a path toward Denver hanging in this game if it keeps up this success. The Chiefs rank 21st against the run this season according to DVOA, and they also showed more cracks than usual last week while surrendering a 49-yard touchdown to the Chargers’ Joshua Kelley.
If Denver can continue its effectiveness this way, the environment could become a factor, too. Studies have consistently shown that high altitude provides the most significant home-field advantage in sports, causing quicker opponent fatigue while also accelerating dehydration.
The Chiefs — even on a cold and potentially snowy day — should be able to throw it fine without much wind in the forecast. KC’s biggest offensive problem against Denver last time was third downs and red zone, and it remains to be seen whether that was more a fluke or the Broncos discovering some magic elixir.
I still could foresee issues here for the Chiefs defense, especially without injured linebacker Nick Bolton, who helped bail the team out when it had run-fit misalignments against the Chargers.
KC seems to have a knack for winning close games, especially in the AFC West. So I’ll still take the Chiefs here based on that history, but think a strong Denver run game — along with the thin air — will help the Broncos cover the seven-point spread.
Chiefs 28, Broncos 27
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Denver
Last game prediction: Chiefs 34, Chargers 24 (Actual: Chiefs 31-17) ✔️
2023 record vs. spread: 4-3
Previous two years’ record vs. spread: 16-11
