Chiefs-Chargers prediction: Why KC and LA are more similar than you might expect

The Details

Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City)

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City)

Line: Chiefs by 5 1/2.

Jesse Newell’s prediction

This is where I put on my nerd hat and tell you exactly what you think I’m about to say about the Los Angeles Chargers: They’re better than you probably think, and certainly not your typical 2-3 team.

Vegas oddsmakers would peg the Chargers as roughly the 10th-best team in the NFL. It’s also eerie how similar the 2023 Chiefs and Chargers offenses have looked this season, at least when comparing the drive stats from FTN Fantasy.

Take it a step further, and the way the two teams succeed is basically the same. Both are elite at the most critical position (quarterback) with a primary No. 1 option (Travis Kelce and Keenan Allen) and a running game that is more complementary than front-and-center.

I think most of us would expect KC’s offense to continue progressing this season, but that hasn’t changed the fact that the two teams, to this point, have been almost mirrors of each other on that end.

The other two aspects are where the Chiefs have been better. L.A., as has often been the case under coach Brandon Staley, struggles to stop most rushing attacks. And while the team has talented pass rushers like Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, it’s been hurt by a leaky secondary, which ranks 29th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grade to this point.

While studies tell us that special teams are only about one-eighth of the NFL game, KC has a clear advantage there too. Harrison Butker and Tommy Townsend have been among the best at their respective positions, which gives the Chiefs a literal leg up in that area, not only against the Chargers but most other foes.

The projected nicer weather (with lesser winds) gives this game a greater probability of passing-game success than KC’s last time against Denver. And while the Chiefs were held to 19 offensively, their underlying numbers looked better than that, as the team was haunted by a lack of execution on the clutch plays (late downs and red zone) where they typically are better.

The Chargers have played the Chiefs close in their last six meetings. And QB Justin Herbert historically has saved his best play for KC, posting impressive numbers in his six games against the Chiefs.

It still just feels like the Chiefs are trending toward a game where their scoring better matches their overall efficiency ... and that could be more probable against a Chargers defense that shouldn’t be feared outside of its front line.

KC has only scored 30-plus once this season — against the Bears — but I see Patrick Mahomes getting the Chiefs there again on Sunday.

Give me the Chiefs for the win and cover, with the offense earning the team’s game ball for the first time in a while.

Chiefs 34, Chargers 24

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 17 (Actual: Chiefs 19-8) ❌

2023 record vs. spread: 3-3

Previous two years’ record vs. spread: 15-11

Jesse Newell

The Kansas City Star

816-234-4759

Jesse Newell covered the Chiefs for The Star until August 2025. He won an EPPY for best sports blog and previously was named top beat writer in his circulation by AP’s Sports Editors. His interest in sports analytics comes from his math teacher father, who handed out rulers to Trick-or-Treaters each year.