Chiefs-Lions prediction: Why recent line movement isn’t altering my KC-Detroit pick
The Details
Kickoff: 7:20 p.m. Central on Thursday
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TV: NBC
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 4 1/2.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
The betting line has moved significantly since tight end Travis Kelce’s announced injury, shifting from Chiefs by 6 1/2 points to 4 1/2 in less than 24 hours.
It makes sense. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the most important player on KC’s roster, but Kelce is second. His likely absence means Mahomes must handle even more responsibility while attempting to lift the offensive pieces around him.
The Chiefs aren’t playing slouches, either. Not only did the Detroit Lions seem to find themselves toward the end of last season as many rookies emerged as playmakers, but they’re also embracing this game as a mini-Super Bowl of sorts. When a national writer dubs it as potentially the team’s “Game of the Century,” you can be confident the Lions will come to Kansas City with plenty of emotion Thursday.
KC has challenges. Chris Jones is still holding out and won’t play, barring something completely unforeseen. Kelce’s late-in-the-week knee injury also limits what KC coaches can do game-plan-wise, as it’ll be tough to rearrange weeks of preparation in the final two days before the opener.
The Lions have a talented offense and a diverse scheme. They have an excellent offensive line and a creative run game, with a quarterback in Jared Goff who is especially effective when not pressured. KC also likely will have to manufacture its pass rush in a game where Jones can’t simply create that himself.
There’s still something to be said for the Mahomes factor here. His stats in five season openers: 18 touchdowns and no interceptions. That includes a 5-0 record, with four victories coming by double digits.
The Lions have an improved defense — and brought in some reinforcements in the offseason to help their secondary — but they’re still likely only average-ish on that end. And as we saw in the Super Bowl last year ... Mahomes and good offense can beat bad defense, average defense or a great one. An elite QB is the NFL’s ultimate trump card.
So even though I think the Lions will have some success offensively — and even while I understand why the Chiefs could easily be put on upset alert based on recent news — I can’t shake the thought that we’re in for a vintage Mahomes performance. Add in that a revamped offensive line should give him plenty of time to find less-proven-but-probably-still-open receivers, and I think we’ll still see a typical KC offensive effort even if it has to overcome additional obstacles.
And defensively? Look for Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to get creative Thursday, finding ways to bring pressure off the edge from guys like L’Jarius Sneed and Chamarri Conner. If the Chiefs can hold up on early downs, Spagnuolo should have a chance to win the late ones with creativity.
Add it all up, and I’ll buck the trending narrative here. Give me the Chiefs by more than a touchdown, as I see them coming through during an efficient-offense-but-low-possession opener for both teams.
Chiefs 30, Lions 21
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Chiefs 26, Eagles 20 (Actual: Chiefs 38-35) ✔️
Last year’s record vs. spread: 12-8
