Chiefs-Chargers prediction: L.A. has an obvious weakness ... but will it matter vs. KC?
The Details
Kickoff: 7:20 p.m. Central Time on Sunday
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.
TV: NBC (Ch. 41) in Kansas City
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 5 1/2.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
This is not an easy game to forecast, mainly because the Los Angeles Chargers have a wide range of outcomes depending on whether their injured players make it back for this critical (for them) AFC West matchup.
L.A., to be frank, hasn’t played that well in recent weeks while remaining in the playoff hunt with a 5-4 record. The defense that mostly frustrated Kansas City in Week 2 has been a shell of its former self without top player Joey Bosa, and the offense has lacked explosiveness as few wideouts have remained healthy to provide the team viable downfield threats.
The Chargers, partly by design, also have a rushing issue on both ends. Though passing trumps running in the NFL — both on the offensive and defensive end — L.A. still could stand to find a happy medium when it comes to that facet; the team ranks 32nd in rush offense and 29th in rush defense (according to Football Outsiders’ metrics), which leaves a slimmer route to success in each game no matter the opponent.
Luckily for the Chargers, they still have quarterback Justin Herbert. He hasn’t been as dynamic without his top playmakers on the outside, but his decision-making, combined with some decent pass-blocking, has helped L.A. stay afloat on the offensive end. And potentially add receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back from injury for this one? Suddenly, the outlook could be a lot rosier for a pass offense that had to ignore deep throws the past few weeks.
On defense, L.A. has been a respectable 12th against the pass (according to Football Outsiders), though some of that still could be showing a Bosa bump from the three weeks he was in before his long-term groin injury. Safety Derwin James and edge rusher Khalil Mack remain top players at their positions, but the dropoff after those guys is severe, leaving the Chargers vulnerable at places where injuries have only further exacerbated depth issues.
It’s also worth noting that this could end up as a quasi-home game for KC. The Chargers have had issues filling SoFi Stadium with their fans, and that was especially the case last season against KC when the seats were mostly filled with red-clad supporters.
The Vegas line seems about right to me here. If LA gets a receiver or two back — even if not at full strength — it could have a multiplying effect on an offense that is set at QB but desperately needs a field stretcher.
And while KC should have running lanes ... how patient will it be with that aspect? The Chiefs are best at throwing while letting Patrick Mahomes work, so the Chargers’ porous run defense might not be the detriment it is against many other teams.
I think this will play out close to what the sports books are anticipating. Give me the Chiefs for the win, but the Chargers to cover the 5 1/2-point spread.
Chiefs 24, Chargers 21
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Los Angeles
Last game prediction: Chiefs 34, Jaguars 21 (Actual: Chiefs 27-17) ✔️
This year’s record vs. spread: 5-4
This story was originally published November 18, 2022 at 6:00 AM.
