Chiefs-Jaguars prediction: Why (big picture) this KC test is similar to the last one
The Details
Kickoff: Noon Central Time on Sunday
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TV: CBS (Ch. 5) in Kansas City
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 9 1/2.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
The Chiefs did not come through for their bettors as nearly two-touchdown favorites last week, needing overtime to take down Tennessee at Arrowhead Stadium.
It’s worth bringing that up now, as Jacksonville — truthfully — is about the same caliber team as Tennessee, even if its strengths and weaknesses lie in different areas.
Sportsbooks would tell us that Tennessee would be about a one-point favorite right now on a neutral field against Jacksonville; betting market power rankings put the Titans at 19th in the NFL, while the Jaguars are 23rd.
The Chiefs will need to worry more about the opponent’s offense this week, as the Jaguars enter as an above-average team on that end under coach Doug Pederson with many more questions on the defensive side.
Running back Travis Etienne is elite. He ranks fifth in missed tackles forced and second in Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected, making him a constant threat even behind a Jacksonville offensive line that has been subpar with its blocking.
The wild card is quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The former No. 1 pick is coming off his best game of the season against the Las Vegas Raiders, yet his overall numbers for the year remain “meh.” He’s middle of the road in most QB rankings and advanced statistics, meaning he hasn’t yet taken the next step many had hoped while still battling bouts of inaccuracy.
Defensively, it’s another week where the Chiefs will face a talented D-line. Though he has only three sacks, Josh Allen remains the Jags’ best and most consistent player at edge rusher, while nine of the team’s top 14 graded defensive players at Pro Football Focus (PFF) play on that same line.
Behind that, though, the Jags are shaky. The pass defense is especially vulnerable, ranking 27th according to Football Outsiders. PFF also spotlights two other Jaguars’ issues on defense: coverage (27th in NFL) and tackling (32nd).
Jacksonville does a decent job stopping the run, but that’s becoming less important with each passing year with the rise of passing offenses. It also feels like not that great of an advantage against Kansas City, as coach Andy Reid wasn’t afraid for the Chiefs to throw 68 passes last week to win when Tennessee stalled his team’s run offense.
I think it’d be wise not to overreact to last week’s game in this spot. Just because KC struggled against Tennessee doesn’t mean that’ll happen again the next week, and the fact the Chiefs are three-point-fewer favorites against the Jaguars compared to the Titans only adds to the temptation to roll with them for the cover this week.
Like so many Chiefs games, this one is likely to be determined by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ pass game. And given that Jacksonville is less talented in that area than Tennessee (while also less apt to intentionally mug Chiefs wideouts as the Titans often did), I’ll give the edge back to Mahomes and Reid while believing they won’t let one subpar outing turn into two.
Look for KC’s offense to perform much better this week, with Jacksonville not generating enough firepower to keep this one close in the end.
Give me the Chiefs for the win and cover.
Chiefs 34, Jaguars 21
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Chiefs 31, Titans 10 (Actual: Chiefs 20-17, OT) ❌
This year’s record vs. spread: 4-4
This story was originally published November 11, 2022 at 6:00 AM.
