GOAT-TEs? How careers of KC Chiefs’ Kelce, Gronkowski stack up ahead of Super Bowl LV
Super Bowl LV already promises to be one of the best quarterback matchups of all time with Patrick Mahomes going against Tom Brady.
Somewhat overlooked, though, is that when historians look back, this contest could also include the best two tight ends to ever play as well.
Kansas City’s Travis Kelce and Tampa Bay’s Rob Gronkowski haven’t gotten to their future hall-of-fame statuses in similar ways, yet both will arrive Sunday with credentials that rival all other tight ends in league history.
For Gronkowski, that’s more about the past than the present. During his early years with the New England Patriots, “Gronk” revolutionized the position, using his big frame and strength to put forth a 2011 season that still ranks as the top tight end season ever, according to Football Outsiders’ all-encompassing DYAR metric.
No one has come close to that individual season ... until Kelce in 2020, that is.
Kelce — while leading all tight ends in receiving yards with 1,416 — finished with a 406 DYAR in just 15 regular-season games, which placed him second among all tight end seasons since 1985 (Gronkowski was at 461 in 2011). That DYAR total also put Kelce ahead of another familiar name: former Chief Tony Gonzalez, whose 2000 season now ranks third-best all-time.
“One thing that’s very intriguing about Travis Kelce, and I’ve never really seen this with any other player in the NFL ever before, is that Kelce gets better every single year that I’ve seen him play in the NFL,” Gronkowski said during a Monday press conference.
When discussing who should be considered the greatest tight end ever, advanced stats indicate that all serious discussion should center around Gronkowski, Kelce and Gonzalez.
Head of Football Outsiders Aaron Schatz recently weighed in on that topic on social media, believing that Kelce’s peak is still below Gronkowski’s, while his career stats remain behind Gonzalez. Schatz cited stats to back his position, saying among the top 40 tight end DYAR seasons of all time, Gronkowski had six, Gonzalez had eight and Kelce had two.
Kelce, though, does appear to have a legitimate claim to the best season ever by a tight end.
Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson discussed this on his Dec. 17 “PFF NFL Daily” podcast, as he argued that Kelce should be the NFL’s offensive player of the year — an award Monson said should go to the best offensive player regardless of the particular value of his position.
“Yes (he should win), and actually, I’m not sure it’s close,” Monson said then. “I don’t know that there are other candidates this year. I think there’s Travis Kelce, the end.”
A few PFF numbers illustrate Kelce’s dominance. Including the playoffs, Kelce recorded 92 first downs — Gronkowski never posted more than 76 in a season — while Mahomes’ passer rating when throwing to Kelce was 129.5.
In addition, Kelce — had he not sat out Week 17 — would have had a chance to lead the league in receiving yards, a feat that’s never been accomplished by a tight end.
As it turned out, Buffalo receiver Stefon Diggs pulled ahead late, with Kelce finishing second.
Monson described Kelce’s chase of that record as “absolutely insane. It is not supposed to be possible from the tight end position. You just look at his numbers, they’re mad.”
In the podcast episode, Monson also noted Kelce had avoided negative parts in his game as well. He had just three drops and one fumble in 2020 — remember, Kelce spends most of his time around defenders in the middle of the field — while also posting his best run-blocking grade at PFF since his rookie campaign in 2014.
“This is a season from Travis Kelce that has never happened in the history of the NFL,” Monson said. “And sure, you have to give some of the credit to Mahomes for finding him on all these plays, but the fact that Travis Kelce is basically setting history this season I think should give him an absolute shoo-in for this (offensive player of the year) award.”
Gronkowski, who rejoined Brady in Tampa Bay after a one-year retirement, has been more of a role player for the Buccaneers. His 623 receiving yards ranked 10th among all tight ends, though he was still a major threat in the red zone with seven touchdowns.
Interestingly, Kelce and Gronkowski are only separated in age by a few months. Gronkowski was born May 14, 1989, while Kelce’s birthday is Oct. 5 of the same year.
Their differing career arcs will now overlap in the Super Bowl. Gronkowski is looking to add a fourth championship ring during the twilight of his career, while Kelce is attempting to get his second at the end of his best overall season.
Only one will lift the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday — while also adding another accomplishment to his own future inscription in Canton.
This story was originally published February 1, 2021 at 10:54 AM.
