How the Chiefs have become one of the NFL’s most aggressive teams on fourth down
The lead was six, and the clock showed 2:31 left in the fourth quarter last week in Miami, when Chiefs coach Andy Reid employed a timeout. Ahead of fourth down, Reid waved his quarterback to the sideline, sough input from his offensive coordinator and looked over a laminated play sheet.
And for a moment, it looked as though Reid was using the extra time to consider whether he should go for it.
He wasn’t.
“We were going for it the whole time,” he said.
It’s a decision he made in that moment, based on circumstances, down and distance, score and time remaining.
And a week’s worth of preparation.
These fourth-down calls that can flip a game — or in this case, cement the outcome of one — derive from ongoing conversations between coaches and even some players. Those discussions can get heated, if you ask one assistant coach.
But the result of them has changed over the years, and in turn, they’re changing the outcomes of Chiefs games, too. The reputation that Andy Reid can get conservative? That he plays it safe? It’s not backed by the analytics.
Not anymore.
But it sure used to be.
A model from EdjSports ranks Reid fourth in the NFL in fourth-down play calling this season. EdjSports assesses the game-winning chances (GWC) gained or lost by each fourth-down move and totals the figures into the rankings.
In other words: How much did each decision to punt, kick a field goal or go for it on fourth down help or hurt a team’s chances to win the game?
Again, Reid ranks fourth in the NFL in the metric. The determination he made last Sunday — to try to put the game away rather than attempt a long field goal or punt — was one of his best of the season. The decisions are analyzed before the ball is snapped, the GWC percentage removing from the equation whether it worked or not. With 2:31 left Sunday, Reid chose to go, and the the Chiefs’ chances of a victory moved from 84.2% to 94.1% before the snap, per the model.
“We’ve seen Reid do a great job in identifying these situations and taking advantage of the opportunity,” said Ian O’Connor, a data analyst for EdjSports.
Recently.
Because Reid used to be on the conservative side. According to Football Outsiders Aggressive Index, in his coaching career through 2017, Reid opted to go on fourth downs 18 percent less often than the expectation from the average NFL coach. Something changed in 2018.
Patrick Mahomes.
As the Chiefs made a change at quarterback in 2018, Reid changed along with him. In Mahomes’ first two seasons, Reid elected to keep his offense on the field 30 percent more often than the average NFL coach. Yes, with Mahomes, the Chiefs should go for it more often. But that alone doesn’t explain Reid’s ranking in the advanced metric. In fact, EdjSports already takes into account that he captains the ship for the best offense in football. It therefore asks him to clear a higher bar.
“With strong teams, and especially strong offenses like Kansas City, we often see them held to a higher standard, meaning we recommend they go for it in scenarios where most other teams would be recommended to kick,” O’Connor said.
The change in Reid’s decision-making, and it’s a big alteration, is not by happenstance.
In mid-week meetings between coaches, the Chiefs prepare for crucial plays. They practice them. Specifically, they eye fourth downs.
Sure, the flow of the game will dictate the ultimate call. But when making those determinations, Reid takes the preparation into consideration.
If we go for it here, what will be the play call?
The thought entered Reid’s mind last week in Miami, and he knew he still had a play in his back pocket, one that had been discussed and prepped that week.
“There’s normally a plan prior to it, and then we talk through the plan the night before,” Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy said. “... So, yes, there is a plan, and there is a conversation. Sometimes those conversations can be a little heated; sometimes they’re very easy to have; but they’re always exciting.”
When there is debate, it rests within the specific play call. Everybody, as Bieniemy framed it, believes they have the call.
Reid has final say. And he’s made some key ones. He’s one of only nine coaches who has improved his team’s aggregate game-winning chances this season because of fourth-down maneuvers, per EdjSports. Colts coach Frank Reich ranks first, Ravens coach John Harbaugh second and Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy third. Saints coach Sean Payton is last.
Reid’s option to pull the trigger in overtime of a Week 2 game with the Chargers remains the best fourth-down decision in the NFL this season, the CCI model says. The Chiefs were at the 46-yard line on fourth and 1. Darwin Thompson got 2 yards. Harrison Butker kicked a 58-yard game-winning field goal.
“We know that these types of decisions matter a considerable amount over the course of the season,” said Frank Frigo, EdjSports co-founder. “An average NFL coach is going to give up something to the tune of three-quarters of a game on just these types of choices — sometimes as much as a game and a half.”
These choices directly determine wins and losses in many cases. It’s a sign of embracing or rejecting a new-age of football, but in Reid’s case, it’s also embracing his own personnel.
Is it perfect? No.
Is it always aggressive? Of course not. The Chiefs have kicked two field goals from the 1-yard line. A late field goal against the Broncos was rated the fourth-worst fourth-down decision in the league in Week 13.
The Chiefs have actually only gone for 13 fourth-down conversions this season, but they’ve picked the right spots. And as the EdjSports analysts explain, most teams have more attempts there simply because they’ve been losing late in games and they’ve had no other choice.
And that’s what it comes down to.
The choice.
They Chiefs often have one — and they’re preparing to go.
“Coach puts us in those situations (in practice) so that when he calls plays, we know exactly what we need to do to go out there and execute,” Mahomes said. “If it’s up to me, I would want to go for it every single time. I just try to stay out there (on the field) as long as possible. If he gives us the chance to go out there and make it happen, we’ve got to make it happen so that we get more chances later on in the year.”