How the Chiefs lost to the Raiders once ... and gauging the likelihood it happens again
The Chiefs are 17-1 in the past 375 days, so it might qualify as a bit unusual — unfair? — to put more emphasis on the one than the 17.
But allow us to explore. Because it’s not just on our minds.
It’s on theirs, too.
As the Chiefs prepare to play the Raiders on Sunday Night Football — the team responsible for the “one” — it’s the overwhelming subject of their conversations. Not just with media. Internally, as well. This week, Chiefs secondary coach Sam Madison said he’s noticed players talking on their own about how to correct what went wrong in that 40-32 loss in Week 5.
“I don’t think you ever want to lose two times,” safety Tyrann Mathieu said. “Especially to the same team.”
In order to avoid it happening twice, you must first gauge why it happened once. Could it repeat itself?
Let’s look back that primary reasons the Raiders were able to leave Arrowhead Stadium with a win — and a victory lap, to boot — last month and how the Chiefs have addressed the issues since.
1. Explosive plays
The Raiders burned the Chiefs with seven plays of 20 yards or more, and six of those arrived in the air. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr had touchdown passes of 59 and 72 yards to Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs, respectively.
Which is particularly surprising given that Carr ranks among the bottom third of the league in average air yards completed on his throws. Carr had 347 yards in Kansas City, his highest of the season. By most measures, it was the Chiefs secondary’s worst game this year.
So what went wrong? Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo took the blame for the Ruggs touchdown, with a call that left him isolated with cornerback Charvarius Ward. A miscommunication in the secondary prompted another.
“They thought they let each other down,” Madison said. “There were some plays left out there on the football field.”
Has it been corrected? In the ensuing three weeks — including a matchup against Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who leads the league in passing yards — the Chiefs allowed only five explosive plays in the air combined. But they retreated in the Week 9 win against Carolina, allowing five of them.
The Chiefs could welcome rookie cornerback L’Jarius Sneed back to the lineup Sunday, and he’s a guy who can run stride for stride with Ruggs. That would help.
As would this ...
2. Where was the Chiefs’ pass rush?
It was nearly non-existent in the first meeting. The Chiefs were credited with sacking Carr once, but in reality, he gave himself up by sliding one yard behind the line of scrimmage. On 32 dropbacks, he was touched on just three of them.
Look, all quarterbacks operate better with clean pockets than when under pressure, but Carr takes that to an extreme. He has 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions when pressure is absent, according to Pro Football Focus. The website gives him a 90.2 grade in such situations. But when he’s pressured, he tends to panic. He has only a 68.1 quarterback rating, and PFF grades him at 38.3. It’s a stark difference.
The Chiefs have rediscovered their pass rush, recording seven sacks in the last three games. The numbers also show even when they’re not getting sacks, they’ve more consistently forcing hurried throws.
Their leader in the category, Chris Jones, vocalized his displeasure with the way that first meeting unfolded, in which he hurried just one throw. In the ensuing four games, he has 11 quarterback hurries and two sacks.
The issue appears to have been corrected, but the Raiders offensive line enters this week with some confidence after the first matchup.
3. Patrick Mahomes under pressure
It’s hard to point the finger at the offense when it accounted for 32 points, but a second-half dry spell — three punts and an interception on the first four possessions — paved the way for the Raiders’ win that day.
The culprit: Patrick Mahomes spent the majority of the half scrambling, even as the Raiders brought only four pass rushers. Mahomes was sacked three times. The offensive line was also called for three holding penalties on pass plays.
“We came out of that (game) thinking we’ve got to do a better job,” Chiefs offensive line coach Andy Heck said. “They got us that day.”
But Mahomes took some blame for it, too. On occasion, he departed the pocket before it was necessary. Among the 22 times he was pressured in that game, Pro Football Focus squared nine of them on his shoulders. That was nearly double every other quarterback in the league in Week 5.
Since? The offensive line has been evidently better than they were that day, and Mahomes has emphasized making the throws as they’re called and doing most of his work from inside the pocket. He has been blamed for only five quarterback pressures in four weeks, just 1.25 per game.
The results speak for themselves. Mahomes has 788 yards and nine touchdowns in the last two games alone. He’s only rushed the ball once in the last three games. Consider this problem properly addressed.