Four reasons the Chiefs will beat the Raiders, and why the bus is low on the list
We’ll get to the bus soon, but not in the way you might be expecting. This Chiefs-Raiders week has largely been about a bus taking a literal victory lap around Arrowhead Stadium. But this Chiefs season and this Chiefs team is proving to be about so much more.
Because the point is not that the Chiefs are going to beat the Raiders. Of course they are, and we’re saying that ahead of time even as the Internet is forever.
The point is why they’re going to beat the Raiders. There are several reasons. Each illustrates something specific about this team.
The Chiefs will be focused. They will not be disjointed or lack energy. Yes, the bus is plays a role here, but the more important factor is the eight-year track record we have with Andy Reid’s teams and three seasons we’ve seen with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.
The Chiefs simply do not play poorly. They don’t always play excellently — Week 2 against the Chargers comes to mind, or Week 5 last year against the Colts — but they do not play poorly. They have not lost by more than a possession in three years.
Mahomes might be the best example of this. He is almost impossibly consistent. The evidence is a little wonky, but using standard deviation he is so consistent that the difference between him and the next most consistent quarterback over the last three seasons (Daniel Jones) is greater than the distance between No. 2 and No. 22, according to research by Patrick Brennan.
This would be a highly useful trait if Mahomes was a normal quarterback, or even merely a good one. That he is this consistent and the best at the position is essentially a magic trick.
Aaron Rodgers completed fewer than half his passes for 160 yards and two interceptions (including a pick-6) against the Bucs in Week 6. Tom Brady threw three interceptions and no touchdowns in an embarrassing loss to the Saints two weeks ago. Both men are having terrific seasons and are first-ballot locks for the Hall of Fame.
Mahomes’ worst game this season is probably the time he threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders. Mahomes does not play poorly. If you’re going to beat the Chiefs, you’re going to have to earn it.
The Chiefs do not have just one way to win. This is another reason they will beat the Raiders, and another reason the Chiefs are so good. You hear a lot of times about a particular opponent being a bad matchup, and the Chiefs are not exempt from this.
Their linebackers can be had in the run game. Their corners have coverage lapses. The interior of their offensive line is subpar in run blocking and vulnerable to stunts in pass protection. But there is no — to borrow Lamar Jackson’s word — kryptonite here.
The Raiders beat the Chiefs by protecting Derek Carr, hitting big plays down the field and pressuring Mahomes without blitzing. It also helped that they ran the ball effectively.
But even with that abomination against the Raiders, the Chiefs rank in the top half in preventing explosive runs and passes, and the potential return of L’Jarius Sneed would provide a match for the Raiders’ speed. They rank fifth in pressuring the opposing quarterback.
There is enough uncertainty regarding the availability of the Chiefs’ offensive linemen to wonder about protection this weekend, but overall the Chiefs rank in the top 10 in pass blocking, according to Pro Football Focus, and 12th in pressure percentage and fifth in sack percentage, according to Pro Football Reference.
The run defense, well, yes. That’s a problem. But that’s been true for years, and it’s cost the Chiefs about as often as Mahomes plays poorly.
The Chiefs are smart. This is one more reason they will beat the Raiders. They have a way of collectively understanding whose game it is.
Mahomes would rather throw long and often, but he’ll check down when the Texans take the top off, and he’ll hand off on RPOs when the Bills present light boxes.
Tyrann Mathieu is by now famous in football circles for his intellect, and he’s a generous sharer of information. Remember two years ago, in the AFC Championship Game, when Eric Berry returned and was essentially spending the entire pre-snap repositioning his teammates?
Mathieu (along with defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and his assistants) have been able to do that work during the week. The Raiders caught the Chiefs a few times in Week 5, which has been rare for this defense over the last 12 months.
They had the right calls for the right moments, which might indicate they found a tell in the Chiefs’ defense, which has now had six weeks, including the week off, to figure out what went wrong. Their collective track record has earned the benefit of the doubt.
The Chiefs are productively petty. That’s the last reason we’re mentioning in this column, and here is where we get to the bus. The Chiefs did not need the bus. The bus is a funny story, but it is also unnecessary.
Mahomes, famously, used his fingers to count to 10 as he jogged off the field after a touchdown in a blowout win over the hapless Bears last season. Bears fans did not need the reminder that their team traded up to take Mitchell Trubisky No. 2 overall in the same draft the Chiefs selected Mahomes 10th.
Mahomes, also somewhat famously, counted to four after a touchdown in a blowout win at Baltimore this season. Mahomes had tweeted a “taking notes” emoji after the NFL Network ranked him fourth and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson first in its Top 100.
On the other side of the ball, the dominant personalities are Mathieu, who points to his head whenever he believes an opponent has underestimated his intelligence, and Frank Clark, who marked each of the Chiefs’ first two playoff wins last year with rants against perceived slights involving the opponent’s running back.
Andy Reid is stubbornly protective of his emotions publicly, but it’s worth noting that he usually saves his best trick stuff for targeted opponents: Hungry Pig Right for the Raiders, Tebow Pop Pass for the Broncos and Smoked Sausage and the Eric Fisher touchdown for the Ravens.
This week, Reid was noticeably bothered by the Raiders’ victory lap, bringing it up on his own and insinuating that it happened because the Raiders knew how hard it would be to beat the Chiefs again.
All the signs are here that we will see the best of the Chiefs this weekend, in other words. That would have been true without the bus. The bus is just a bonus.
This story was originally published November 20, 2020 at 5:00 AM.