What the Vegas oddsmakers are saying about the Chiefs-Patriots AFC Championship Game
The Chiefs have put the New England Patriots in unfamiliar territory this weekend.
Underdogs.
For the first time in 68 starts, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will enter a game as the betting underdog, per BetDSI. And, boy, the Patriots won’t let you forget it. They have built a quasi-marketing campaign around it this week, with wide receiver Julian Edelman posting a video to his Twitter account titled, “Bet Against Us.” He’s selling T-shirts with that mantra.
But, yes, it’s accurate. If the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have set the line correctly, the Chiefs will be headed to Atlanta for the Super Bowl.
Kansas City is a 3-point favorite against the Patriots at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. And the majority of the public is taking Edelman’s advice — betting against New England. According to Action Network, 54 percent of the money is on the Chiefs to cover the spread, as of Thursday morning.
The Chiefs are 10-6-1 against the spread this season after covering last week’s 5-point line against the Colts in the AFC Divisional Round. They have been favored in all nine home games, and they covered the spread in five of those nine.
The Patriots have not won a road playoff game against 2007. But they did win the last time Brady was an underdog — a 40-32 victory over Buffalo in Week 2 of the 2015 season.
The over/under for Sunday’s game is 56 points.
The conference championships — with the Rams and Saints playing for the NFC crown — feature four of the top quarterbacks in football, but Patrick Mahomes is projected for a better weekend than any of his counterparts. He’s the odds-on favorite to throw for the most passing yards Sunday, according to a line set by Bovada. Chiefs running back Damien Williams is projected for the second-most rushing yards behind only Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley.
With four teams still alive, the Saints remain the favorite to win the Super Bowl, listed at +175 on Bovada. The Chiefs are second at +275, followed by the Patriots (+330) and the Rams (+350).
If the Chiefs do reach the Super Bowl, they would likely be an underdog against either NFC team. In a potential matchup with the Saints, the Chiefs would be a 2-point underdog, and the Rams would be favored by 1 1/2 points against the Chiefs, per BetOnline.