Here’s what the Vegas odds predict for the Chiefs, Mahomes, Hill, Kelce and Hunt

In a league that prides itself on its unpredictable outcomes, the Chiefs embark on their 2018 schedule Sunday as a leading example. How will quarterback Patrick Mahomes perform in his first season as a starter? Will Eric Berry even be on the field?

Perhaps more than any year in recent memory, the Chiefs are a difficult team to forecast. But that’s exactly what the oddsmakers in Vegas must do anyway.

And they envision the Chiefs taking a step backwards, albeit a small one.

After three consecutive double-digit win seasons, Vegas has placed the Chiefs’ regular season over-under for wins at 8 1/2, according to Bovada. They need nine victories, in other words, to make the over wager a winning ticket.

The oddsmakers don’t like the Chiefs’ chances to repeat as the AFC West champions either. The Los Angeles Chargers are listed as the favorite to win the division, followed by the Chiefs.

Kansas City’s odds to win the Super Bowl are 25-to-1, which falls into the middle of the pack in the NFL. The Patriots are the favorite at 5-to-1, with the Eagles and Rams both 8-to-1.

What do the odds suggest about the statistical seasons the individual players might produce?

Let’s start with Mahomes. They have the over/under lines listed at 3,750 yards, 23 touchdowns and 13 1/2 interceptions. Only four players have higher interception totals. But the ceiling on Mahomes remains relatively high. He’s listed at 60-to-1 to win the league’s most valuable player award, tied for the 20th best odds in the NFL. For comparison’s sake, Alex Smith had 4,042 yards, 26 touchdowns and five interceptions in 2017.

Running back Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing as a rookie last season, finishing with 1,327 yards, eight rushing touchdowns. His 2018 projections in Vegas are 1,150 rushing yards and 10 1/2 rushing touchdowns, per Bovada. Ten players have better odds to win the rushing title than Hunt, even though he holds the belt.

The forecast for tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill are quite similar. Each has their over/under for receiving yards listed at an even 1,000. Hill’s over/under for total touchdowns — receiving, rushing and returning combined — are seven. Kelce’s receiving touchdowns are listed at six. Hill had 1,183 yards and eight total touchdowns in 2017. Kelce had 1,038 yards and eight touchdowns.

So why do the sports betting oddsmakers set Kelce and Hill with slightly worse outputs this year? A couple of factors are at play. First, they don’t believe Mahomes will repeat the season Smith had last year. And second, there is another player to split the touches with.

Incoming wide receiver Sammy Watkins’ over/under for yards and touchdowns in his first season in Kansas City are 800 and 5 1/2, respectively. Those are much higher numbers than the Chiefs got from their No. 2 wide receiver a year ago. While Watkins caught eight scores last season, the yardage would be a significant bump in his production. Watkins had only 593 yards in 2017 with the Rams and just 430 yards in an injury-ravaged season in 2016. An injury, of course, would not negate the wager.

On the defensive side, linebacker Justin Houston is calculated for eight sacks. Houston has proved one of the most difficult players for Vegas to set lines, given his injury history. He had 9 1/2 sacks in 2017 but only four in 2016 and just 7 1/2 in 2015.

In their opener, the Chiefs are a 3 1/2-point underdog against the Chargers.

Sam McDowell

Sam McDowell covers Sporting Kansas City, the Royals, Chiefs and sports enterprise for The Star

This story was originally published September 6, 2018 at 12:27 PM.