American League Championship Series preview: Royals vs. Orioles

Lineup

Nelson Cruz (40 homers, 108 RBIs), Adam Jones (29 HRs, 96 RBIs), Chris Davis (26 HRs, 72 RBIs) and Steve Pearce (21 HRs, 49 RBIs) all hit more home runs than the Royals’ top slugger, Alex Gordon (19 HRs). Davis’ suspension won’t end until game six of the ALCS, so he likely won’t be on the Orioles’ roster. The Royals were the only major-league team that failed to hit 100 homers. The Orioles were sixth in the American League in runs scored (705); the Royals were ninth (651). The Royals led baseball with 153 stolen bases, while Baltimore had just 44. Both teams will have had a lengthy break, having clinched on Sunday. That should favor the Royals, because speed doesn’t go into a slump as they say. The Orioles struck out 1,285 times this season, a full 300 more than the Royals. Edge: Royals.

Bench

Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore can help the Royals steal a run by stealing a bases or two. Josh Willingham has the potential to hit a home run at any time. Baltimore has Delmon Young, who has some pop, and former Royal David Lough should know KC pitching. The Orioles also have another former Royal in Jimmy Paredes. Edge: Royals.

Defense

Only one American League team has saved more runs than the Royals’ 40, according to BillJamesonline.com. That’d be the Orioles (49), but Baltimore’s defense isn’t quite as good without the injured Manny Machado and Matt Wieters. Still, shortstop J.J. Hardy, center fielder Adam Jones and right fielder Nick Markakis have each won a Gold Glove award. And if catcher Caleb Joseph plays, he brings an American League best 40.4 percent caught-stealing rate to the table. The Royals counter with Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon. Edge: Push.

Rotation

The numbers are similar for the starters. The Royals rotation had a collective 3.60 ERA, while the Orioles’ was 3.61. Opponents had a .399 slugging percentage against the Orioles’ starters, and it was .391 against the Royals. Baltimore starters had 78 quality starts as opposed to 95 for the Royals. There’s depth in both rotations (Danny Duffy’s 2.53 ERA; The Orioles’ Miguel Gonzalez had a 1.75 ERA over his last eight regular-season starts), but the Royals’ top guns of James Shields and Yordano Ventura win out. Edge: Royals.

Bullpen

This may come as a surprise, but the Orioles’ relief corps had a 3.10 ERA, which was better than the Royals’ 3.30 ERA. The Herrera-Davis-Holland trio makes each game a six-inning affair from the Royals’ perspective, but Baltimore manager Buck Showalter has a dominant closer in Zach Britton as well as tough Darren O’Day (1.70 ERA) and Andrew Miller (1.35 ERA with the Orioles). Edge: Push.

Managers

The Wall Street Journal had a recent article with the headline: “Ned Yost and Buck Showalter: The Dunce and the Chessmaster.” It’s not that bad, but while Yost had a controversy-free ALDS, he’s still often too rigid in his pitching decisions. Showalter has a reputation for pulling the right strings with his bullpen and is known as an excellent game manager. Edge: Orioles.

The Pick: Royals in six games

This story was originally published October 9, 2014 at 6:54 PM with the headline "American League Championship Series preview: Royals vs. Orioles."