Here’s what the data says about Carlos Santana’s slow start for the Kansas City Royals
Carlos Santana has played long enough to know nobody wants to hear a scuffling ballplayer talk about bad luck at the plate. But the Kansas City Royals’ first baseman also knows that, in his case, it has kinda been true so far this season.
Santana delivered a key RBI single for the club’s lone run on Friday in a 2-1 loss to the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. That single snapped an 0-for-12 stretch and gave Santanta his first RBI of the season.
“We needed the big hit,” Royals manager Mike Matheny said of Santana. “That’s usually one of the things we spend time talking about if we’re on the losing end. You know, we missed the big hit. He came through with that. If you don’t get the situational hitting, you need the big hit. He gave us one. I thought he took a nice, short stroke on the other line drive too.”
The 36-year-old veteran switch hitter isn’t going to let 23 at-bats rattle him, even if the batting average staring back at him on the scoreboard entering Saturday showed him hitting .087.
On top of the relatively minuscule sample size, it has been one of those instances where there’s data that shows he’s been on the wrong end of tough breaks.
“My mentality is positive,” Santana said after Friday night’s loss. “Keep it going. Tomorrow is a new day, a new game. We’re trying to win.”
While the box score shows a 1 for 4 next to Santana’s name on Friday night, his line-out in the ninth inning came off the bat at 102 mph, and Tigers second baseman Jonathan Schoop made a leaping catch while playing in shallow right field due to an infield shift.
When a reporter asked Santana about whether he’d run into some bad luck early this season, Santana hesitated to use that phrase, initially.
“I think so,” he ultimately replied. “You can see the last couple games, especially tonight. I’m getting good contact, especially the last at-bat. The last seven games, this is what I’ve been trying to do. I don’t want to say it, but I think it’s bad luck.”
MLB Statcast data seems to agree, at least at this early juncture of the season.
Santana entered Saturday tied for the team lead in hard-hit percentage (balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or more). Salvador Perez was the only everyday player on the club with a higher average exit velocity. Santana had barreled pitches at the third-highest rate on the club.
Based on Statcast data and expected statistics, he’d been victimized by chance/circumstance more than any other hitter in the club’s lineup.
The difference between the expected batting average on the balls he’s put in play and his actual batting average was 159 points. The difference between his expected slugging percentage and actual slugging percentage was 303 points. The difference between his weighted on-base percentage and his expected weighted on-base average was 161 points.
Nobody on the club had a higher differential in any of those categories. Santana’s batting average differential was the ninth highest in the major leagues, while his slugging differential was the 13th highest among big-league players.
Santana also entered the day with four walks and two strikeouts this season.
“He’s taken some walks,” Matheny said. “The walks are going to be pretty indicative of how he’s feeling. It’s been a part of his game forever. That’s something he needs to continue to do. Because that’s something he does that a lot of other people can’t, just figuring out how to get on base.”
Santana’s production will likely draw scrutiny from Royals fans and followers because of the way his offense dropped off late last season as he played through a leg injury. Not to mention the presence of top hitting prospects MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto at Triple-A.
Though it’s noteworthy that in a small sample size this season in the minors, Minor League Gold Glove-winning first baseman Pratto has batted .175 with a .233 on-base percentage.
Entering last year, Santana had a career slash line of .248/.366/.446 with 240 home runs in 11 big-league seasons. Since 2011, he’d averaged 23 home runs and 77 RBIs per season, and he’d slugged .445.
Last season in 89 games before the All-Star break, Santana blasted 15 homers, registered 50 RBIs and posted a .368 on-base percentage.
However, he batted .176 with an on-base percentage of .254 in 69 games after the break.
This offseason, Santana underwent a physical rehab program that included platelet-rich plasma (PRP) treatment on his left quad. The method uses injections of the patient’s own platelets to help accelerate healing.
He’s in the final year of a two-year, $17.5 million deal he signed with the Royals prior to the 2021 season.
